2023 Millrose Games Preview

Ladies and gentlemen...the Millrose Games have returned.

The Armory-hosted meet is one of the most prestigious track and field invitationals that the United States (and even the world) sees on an annual basis. With many of the best pro athletes around the globe gathering in one place, the times and battles almost always produce a jaw-dropping amount of thrill.

And 2023 is set to be no different.

There are only a handful of collegiates entered in this meet, but all of them have the potential to headline the national leaderboard -- and maybe even challenge for NCAA records. Below, we highlighted each of the distance events and analyzed what we should expect from the collegiate entries in each of those races.

Here we go...

It's time.

It's time for Cade Flatt's collegiate debut.

The high school megastar, who ran 1:46 for 800 meters multiple times at the prep level (and now sits at US #2 all-time in the half-mile event) is making his NCAA debut at the Millrose Games this weekend...but there's a catch.

Yesterday, Flatt announced on Instagram that just three weeks ago, he "couldn't walk" and that he had sustained fractures. By the pictures, the injury occurred in his foot or lower leg. And yet, somehow, Flatt has seemingly exceeded his recovery timeline (dramatically, I might add) and will still be toeing the line on Saturday night.

It's impossible to know how this Ole Miss rookie will respond in this field. Not only is he facing the most loaded 800 meter field that he's ever seen, but he's also at a fitness disadvantage based solely on the fact that he was recently hurt and maybe still is (which is just speculation).

There's admittedly a lot going against Flatt heading into this tomorrow's race. And yet, I can't help but wonder just how fast he could run. Is a 1:47 mark in the cards for him? Could his elite raw fitness be enough to have this field drag him to a fast time? For most true rookies in this scenario, I would have serious concerns.

But Flatt isn't like "most true rookies," at least not in my eyes.

He's distinctly different. He's a flat-out different breed. He is completely unafraid to attack aggressive paces, muscle his way through the final 200 meters and go after the best middle distance talents that the country has to offer.

Honestly, he's just as much of a showman as he is an elite talent.

And that's what makes his races so much fun to watch.

Your guess is as good as mine when it comes to how Flatt will perform on Saturday. But what I do feel confident about is this Rebel freshman going all-out and putting himself in a position for success.

There are three collegiates who are entered in the non-invite section of the mile at the Millrose Games this weekend. And despite being listed in the same race, these three athletes could not be more different when looking at their resumes.

The first name to highlight is Tiarnan Crorken. The Ole Miss ace jumped onto the scene last winter, emerging as a nationally competitive 800 meter talent who ran 1:47 and finished 5th at the 2022 NCAA Indoor Championships. The British middle distance runner was then absent from competition during the spring months.

Crorken's indoor track campaign throughout last year was impressive, but it also wasn't too shocking. The Ole Miss standout already held times of 1:46.75 (800), 3:39 (1500) and 3:58 (mile) prior to joining the Rebels.

But this is now Crorken's first mile effort (or 1500 meter effort, for that matter) at the collegiate level. And while we know for sure that he's fit this season (recently running 1:47 for 800 meters), it's not entirely clear just how effective he'll be in this field.

A time somewhere around 3:56 or 3:57 seems like a safe guess, but I wouldn't be surprised if a 3:55 or even a 3:54 mark was in his future. And yet, at the same time, a LOT has to go right in order for that to happen. Since 2018, no one has won this race in a time faster than 3:57. However, in 2017, Cristian Soratos ran 3:54 to win this section of the mile.

The recent trend in times that we've seen over the last few years suggest that this race will likely be won in a time faster than 3:57. But a 3:54 mark does seem aggressive. That's why for Crorken, a 3:55 or 3:56 mark seems reasonable.

And then we come to Haverford ace, Jamie Moreland.

One of the biggest breakout stars of the 2023 indoor track season at the D3 level is also entered in this field. The recent 4:03 miler is not expected to be nearly as competitive as Crorken is, but Moreland does have a ton of momentum on his side.

There's a very good chance that if Moreland stays composed and follows a respectably fast pace that is evenly split, then he could have a shot of dipping under the four-minute barrier. And if he does that, then he would become just the third D3 distance talent to ever run sub-4:00 in the mile.

Rochester's Scott Sikorski is the other collegiate in this field who appears to have been a late entrant. The D3 distance talent is a respectable name who has also proven to be competitive in the middle distances.

Sikorski holds personal bests of 1:51 (800), 3:46 (1500) and 4:08 (mile), marks that put him in a nationally competitive tier at the D3 level. He earned bronze in the metric mile at the outdoor national meet last spring and was a 21st place All-American on the grass this past fall.

So far, this Rochester distance talent is undefeated in three races this season (two individual, one relay). And while his resume does fall behind a few other men in this field, it's clear that he is due for a big personal best.

No, I'm not saying that he'll be the same sub-four threat that Moreland is, but a 4:04 or 4:05 mark may be in the cards for him if this race plays out in his favor.

There is admittedly not as much to talk about with Moreland or Sikorski than there is with Crorken. When it comes to the Ole Miss talent, Crorken has the potential to run a fast time and contend for the win. But when it comes to Moreland and Sikorski, it's more likely that they are aiming to get dragged to a fast time.

In a field full of elite pro superstars, there is only one collegiate listed in these entries: Alabama ace, Eliud Kipsang.

On paper, Kipsang has just as much raw talent as some of the other pro athletes in this field. He did, after all, run a collegiate record of 3:33 for 1500 meters last spring. When it comes to all-out time trial scenarios, almost no one in the NCAA is better than Kipsang.

But the end of Kipsang's 2022 cross country season was...not great. He just didn't look like himself. And when you see that he ran a very modest time of 1:51 for 800 meters during the last week of January, I just have no idea how he'll respond in a field that is as overwhelmingly loaded as this.

Is there a world where Kipsang hits the gas from the start and works in tandem with the superstar pros in this field? Definitely! In fact, that's been his marquee racing strategy throughout the entirety of his collegiate career. Still, given what little convincing data that we have on him right now, I feel like Saturday is a bit up in the air for this Crimson Tide megastar.

Now, in fairness to Kipsang, he made his season debut fairly late during the 2022 indoor track season. And if the goal this winter is to have him peak for the NCAA Indoor Championships, then I have no problem with Alabama's racing schedule for him.

Ah yes, the race that you've all been waiting for.

Katelyn Tuohy will toe the line for her first 3k effort this season at the Millrose Games. And after running marks of 15:15 (5k) and 4:24 (mile) this winter, the latter being an NCAA record, the idea that this Wolfpack phenom could run 8:40 (3k) or faster this Saturday seems...well, super realistic.

With top-tier pro athletes such as Alicia Monson, Laura Galvan, Elly Henes and Elise Cranny crowding this field, there should be zero concerns about this race being fast enough for an NCAA record.

Alicia Monson alone is a good enough reason.

This is now the part where I could offer some fancy analysis and talk about Tuohy's positioning, ability to thrive in fast fields, blah, blah, blah. But there are some instances where it's best not to overcomplicate things.

Tuohy is more than capable of running a new NCAA record.

By how much? Honestly, I don't know.

But if she breaks another collegiate record tomorrow night, then we need to start asking if this NC State talent is the G.O.A.T. of NCAA distance running...and not just in the conversation.

The women's 3000 meters will also feature Alabama's Mercy Chelangat and I am very eager to see how she performs in this field.

With a personal best, this long-time veteran is probably in the upper-half of 3k runners in this field. Let's not forget, she ran 8:53 at this distance last winter. And after winning a 10k national title last spring as well as a running 15:18 for 5000 meters back in December, I could absolutely see her breaking the 8:50 barrier.

This is, without question, going to be the best and fastest 3k field that Chelangat has ever toed the line for. Yes, this level of competition can spark a lot of pressure, but this all-out, time-focused race theoretically favors the aerobic prowess of this Crimson Tide's star.

Is she better suited for the 5000 meters and the 10,000 meters? Yes, almost definitely. But the 3k isn't such a dramatic drop-down in distance that Chelangat can't be competitive. Whatever she doesn't have in turnover she simply makes up for with raw talent.

There is understandably a lot of hype surrounding the potential NCAA record that we could see fall in the women's 3000 meters on Saturday. But is it crazy for me to suggest that the men's collegiate 3k record is also in jeopardy?

I know that sounds like such a ridiculous statement, especially since Northern Arizona's Drew Bosley smashed the old record with a time of 7:36.42 last month. But the men's 3k field at the Millrose Games is (unsurprisingly) crazy loaded. And when you look at the collegiates who are entered in this field, I can't help but wonder if a 7:35 mark is in play.

The main reason I say that Bosley's record could fall is because his teammate, Nico Young, is entered in this race.

Remember when I said that Eliud Kipsang may be the best distance runner in the NCAA, "when it comes to all-out time trial scenarios,"? Yeah, well I may have lied. If that honor doesn't go to Kipsang, then it almost definitely goes to Nico Young.

I think it's more likely that Nico Young ends his NCAA career with a collegiate record than a national title. I am certainly not saying that he won't win a national title, but I just think that his style of racing and raw talent is more conducive to breaking records than thriving in tactical races, at least for now.

Young is at his best when he's facing elite-level pro athletes who are going all-out and gunning for fast times. And when you consider that Young has toed the line for the 3000 meters at the Millrose Games before (as a high schooler), that experience can only help him on Saturday.

Drew Bosley's fitness has obviously climbed to another level, but would anyone be surprised if someone said that Young was just as fit? Honestly, no, I don't think that would be viewed as a shocking statement.

Young is arguably better in the 5k than the 3k, but we also said that same thing about Bosley and you saw how turned out. No, I'm not saying that this NAU star WILL break Bosley's record on Saturday night, but...I also wouldn't be surprised if that happened.

As for Dylan Jacobs and Alex Maier, I don't think it's unrealistic to suggest that either of these men could scare the 7:40 (3k) barrier this weekend. Do I think they'll be able to reach the NCAA record? No, but they are both insanely fit right now, especially Jacobs.

The Tennessee graduate student made his season debut the other week, running 13:11 for 5000 meters which now sits at NCAA #3 all-time. That raw fitness alone, as well as the recent experience of racing in a wildly talented, pro-laden field should only benefit Jacobs this weekend. He is far better than what his 7:49 (3k) personal best would tell you, especially since he has only contested this event once since the winter of 2020.

It's true, Jacobs' minimal racing experience in this event doesn't sound ideal. But when you're as fit as he is, that may not matter.

As for Maier, he has been on fire since last spring. He has evolved into a legitimate threat to essentially any and all title contenders. He only has a small handful of marquee wins, maybe only one this past fall, but on paper, he's just as talented as anyone else.

Based on his 13:13 (5k) mark from December, this Oklahoma State veteran has a chance of cracking the 7:40 (3k) barrier. However, a recent 3:58 mile effort at Arkansas was admittedly super underwhelming.

That race was almost certainly a fluke. Plus, I don't think Coach Dave Smith would enter Maier in this field (which may have been a last minute entry unless I'm missing something) if he didn't think that his ace could be competitive.

*Collegiates only, assumes all runners will contest the race that they are entered in.