2023 Kolas XC Projections (Men & Women): Pre-Regional Breakdown

Thanks to the incredible work from our friend, Bo Waggoner, we were able to collect data and then utilize his website, XC Quals, to construct our national meet qualifying projections for the Division One level. Oh, and a big thank you to Adam Cooke who gathered a heavy portion of this year's results for the simulator!

Be sure to check out Bo's site and play around with your own regional meet orders!

Also, if you want to learn more about the Kolas national qualifying process, be sure to also check out our UNDERSTANDING KOLAS page!

With that said, here are our projections for the national meet. Please note that the below regional meet orders are based on where TSR believes these teams will/could finish. These regional meet orders are NOT based on the USTFCCCA coaches poll. Below, we listed all of our automatic qualifiers (the projected top-two teams in each region) and then broke down how certain teams would receive their at-large bids (the following 13 teams).

Let's begin!

NOTE: TEAMS IN BOLD INDICATE AUTO-LOCKS

1. Wisconsin Badgers* -- It is possible that the Wisconsin men technically fielded a "B" lineup at the Nuttycombe Invitational. If their BIG 10 lineup is indicative of what their Great Lakes regional lineup will look like, then the Badgers will give zero points to any team that beat them at the Nuttycombe Invitational. This simulator assumes that Wisconsin ran a "B" team at Nuttycombe, but that could very easily change.

2. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

3. Butler Bulldogs

4. Michigan Wolverines

5. Michigan State Spartans

6. Purdue Boilermakers

7. Akron Zips

1. Villanova Wildcats

2. Princeton Tigers

3. Georgetown Hoyas

4. Navy Midshipmen

1. Oklahoma State Cowboys

2. Iowa State Cyclones

3. Loyola (Ill.) Ramblers

4. Tulsa Golden Hurricanes

5. Drake Bulldogs

6. Illinois Fighting Illini'

1. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks

2. BYU Cougars

3. New Mexico Lobos

4. Air Force Falcons

5. Colorado Buffaloes

6. Montana State Bobcats

7. Wyoming Cowboys

8. Utah State Aggies

1. Syracuse Orange

2. Harvard Crimson

3. Iona Gaels

4. Providence Friars

5. Stony Brook Seawolves

6. Cornell Big Red

1. Alabama Crimson Tide

2. Tennessee Volunteers

3. Florida State Seminoles

4. Middle Tennessee State

5. Auburn Tigers

6. Ole Miss Rebels

1. Arkansas Razorbacks

2. Texas Longhorns

3. Tulane Green Wave

4. Texas A&M Aggies

1. North Carolina Tar Heels

2. Virginia Cavaliers

3. Furman Paladins

4. Eastern Kentucky Colonels

5. Wake Forest Demon Deacons

6. Duke Blue Devils

7. NC State Wolfpack

8. Charlotte 49ers

9. Charleston Southern Buccaneers

1. California Baptist Lancers

2. Stanford Cardinal

3. Washington Huskies

4. Oregon Ducks

5. Cal Poly Mustangs

6. Boise State Broncos

7. Gonzaga Bulldogs

8. Portland Pilots

9. Santa Clara Broncos

In this scenario, the Furman men and Air Force men kick-off the at-large national qualifying selection process with five Kolas points each. Colorado has eight Kolas points, but because they are not among the top-two teams in their region who have not yet been selected to the national meet, they are not yet eligible to be chosen in this selection process.

Because both teams have five Kolas points, we must do a head-to-head tie-breaker. Since Furman beat Air Force in their only matchup this season (at Nuttycombe), the Paladins get the first at-large bid to the national meet.

They give Kolas points to Colorado, Florida State, NC State, Michigan State, Charlotte and Akron. Those teams beat Furman at either Nuttycombe or the Virginia Invite.

Colorado has nine Kolas points, but is still not eligible since New Mexico and Air Force are projected to finish ahead of them in the Mountain region and only two non-qualified teams from each region can be considered for a spot at a time.

Air Force has the most Kolas points among eligible teams to be selected with five Kolas points. However, because we can calculate that the Falcons will be selected later on in the process (and without a "push" scenario), the NCAA would prefer to take a team with the next-most points for now.

Butler is the next eligible team with the most Kolas points (four) and are selected to advance to the national meet. They give one Kolas point to Colorado, New Mexico, Michigan, Boise State, Iona and Georgetown. The Air Force men earn two Kolas points since they beat Butler at both the Nuttycombe Invite and the Virginia Invitational.

Colorado still has the most Kolas points of any non-selected team (10), but they are still not eligible yet at this point in the process. The Air Force men are eligible to be selected and have the next-most Kolas points (seven). However, as mentioned earlier, we know that we can select the Falcons later in the selection process without a "push" scenario, so we will delay selecting them at this spot.

Eastern Kentucky and Wake Forest each have four Kolas points.

Wake Forest is not selected because they lost to Eastern Kentucky every time that they faced each other this season (three times in total if you're counting this regional Kolas scenario). As a result, the Colonels are selected.

The Eastern Kentucky men give one Kolas point each to Colorado, New Mexico, Michigan, Wake Forest and Air Force.

Colorado has 11 Kolas points, but is still not eligible to be selected. Air Force has eight Kolas points, but we are not going to select them yet because we know that we can select them later on without a "push" scenario.

The Wake Forest men have five Kolas points and are the next eligible team to be selected. As such, they are selected and advance to the national meet.

The Demon Deacons give one Kolas point each to Colorado, New Mexico, Michigan, Florida State and Air Force after losing to those teams at either the Virginia Invite, the Nuttycombe Invite or the ACC XC Championships.

Colorado has 12 Kolas points, but is not yet eligible. Air Force has nine Kolas points and are eligible to be selected, but we know that they will be selected later on in the process.

This means that the Michigan men are the team with the most Kolas points (five) that are eligible to be selected at this stage in the at-large process. They give two Kolas points to Colorado and one Kolas point each to Air Force and New Mexico.

Colorado has 14 Kolas points, but is still not eligible to be selected. Air Force has 10 Kolas points, but will soon be selected on their own without a "push" scenario.

The New Mexico men have five Kolas points. No other eligible team (that can avoid a "push" scenario) has as many points as they do. Therefore, the Lobos are the next team chosen for the national meet. They give one Kolas point to Colorado and one Kolas point to Gonzaga.

Colorado now 15 Kolas points and they are one of the top-two teams in their region who haven't been selected to the national meet yet. In theory, that would allow them to qualify for the national meet at this stage in the selection process.

However, because we can determine that they will get in later on their own (without a "push" scenario), we will hold off on selecting them.

Instead, the team that is projected to finish ahead of them in their region, Air Force, is selected for the national meet. They have 10 Kolas points. They give one Kolas point to Colorado and one Kolas point to Boise State.

We can now finally select Colorado for a spot to the national meet. They hold a staggering total of 16 Kolas points at this stage in the selection process. The Buffaloes give one Kolas point each to Oregon and Washington.

With three Kolas points, the Florida State men are the next team selected to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships.

The Boise State men also have three Kolas points, but they are not yet eligible to be selected. That is because Washington, Oregon and Cal Poly are projected to finish ahead of the Broncos in the West region (per TSR) and only two non-qualified teams from each region can be considered for a spot to the national meet at a time.

With the Seminoles now selected, the men of Boise State, Iona, Georgetown, Michigan State, Gonzaga and Washington each get one Kolas point.

Now things get interesting.

Iona, Georgetown, Washington and Michigan State are all tied for the next spot to the national meet with two Kolas points each. The Boise State men have more Kolas points (four) than all of those teams and Gonzaga has just as many Kolas points as those first four squads. However, those two squads are not yet eligible to be selected.

With those first four teams all tied at two Kolas points each, we now need to utilize the "head-to-head" tie-breaker to determine who gets the 10th at-large bid for the NCAA XC Championships.

The Washington men do not advance because they lost to Iona, Michigan State and Georgetown at the Nuttycombe Invite. Meanwhile, Michigan State lost to Georgetown and Iona earlier this season, also at the Nuttycombe Invite. And yes, on that same Nuttycombe stage, Georgetown lost to Iona.

With the Iona men not holding any head-to-head losses to Georgetown, Washington or Michigan State, the Gaels are selected to advance to the national meet. They give one Kolas point to Boise State.

We have now reached a point where the Georgetown men, the Washington men and the Michigan State men are all tied with two Kolas points.

Those three teams are eligible to be selected, but the Boise State men are not eligible despite having five Kolas points. The Gonzaga men also have two points, but they are also not eligible to be selected yet.

The Washington men lost to Georgetown at the Nuttycombe Invite, but beat the Hoyas at the Virginia Invitational. However, because Georgetown beat the Washington men more recently than Washington beat them, it's the Hoyas who win that tie-breaker. As such, the Huskies do not advance (they also would have also lost the tie-breaker to Michigan State).

The Michigan State men lost to Georgetown in their only matchup of the season at the Nuttycombe Invitational. And with the Hoyas winning both of their tie-breaking scenarios, they are the next team chosen to advance to the national meet.

After being selected, Georgetown gives one Kolas point each to Boise State, Utah State, Washington, Duke, Navy, Charlotte and Providence.

Boise State has six Kolas points, but is still not eligible to be selected.

Instead, the Washington men are selected. They have the most Kolas points (three) of any eligible team at this point in our selection process. Yes, they were tied with Michigan State in the above step, but after the Huskies earned a Kolas point from beating Georgetown (who just got in), they therefore had enough Kolas points to be selected at this stage.

Boise State, Michigan State, Gonzaga and Utah State all receive from one Kolas point each from defeating Washington earlier in the season.

The Boise State men have the most Kolas points (seven) of any team in the country at this point in our selection process. However, they are still not eligible to be selected. And even if they were eligible to be selected (by defeating Cal Poly in our scenario), the Broncos still wouldn't have advanced.

In that scenario, Boise State would have had to "push" Oregon into the national meet. And because there is only one national qualifying spot left, the Broncos can't implement a "push" scenario because then two teams would advance -- and there's only spot remaining.

The Michigan State men have three Kolas points. The Gonzaga men also have three Kolas points, but in our scenario, they are not eligible to be selected.

That means that the Spartans secure the 13th and final team spot to the NCAA XC Championships. If the selection process offered 14 at-large bids (they only offer 13), then Michigan State would have given one Kolas point each to Boise State and NC State.

If we were to continue our Kolas math beyond the 13 at-large bids, which team would emerge as the "First Team Out" of the national meet?

The Boise State men theoretically have eight Kolas points at this stage in our selection process. However, they are not eligible to be selected because both Oregon and Cal Poly are projected to finish ahead of them in the West region.

The Gonzaga men have three Kolas points. However, they are still not eligible to be selected.

The Charlotte men are the next eligible to team to be selected with the most Kolas points (two) that won't require them to "push" another team into this spot. And with no opposition, the 49ers are dubbed as the "First Team Out" in our 2023 Kolas projections.

NOTE: TEAMS IN BOLD INDICATE AUTO-LOCKS

1. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

2. Michigan State Spartans

3. Wisconsin Badgers

4. Michigan Wolverines

5. Ohio State Buckeyes

1. Georgetown Hoyas

2. Penn State Nittany Lions

3. Princeton Tigers

4. Villanova Wildcats

5. West Virginia Mountaineers

6. Penn Quakers

1. Oklahoma State Cowgirls

2. Iowa State Cyclones

3. Northwestern Wildcats

4. Nebraska Cornhuskers

1. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks

2. BYU Cougars

3. Colorado Buffaloes

4. Utah Valley Wolverines

5. Utah Utes

6. Colorado State Rams

7. Montana State Bobcats

8. Air Force Falcons

9. New Mexico Lobos

10. Utah State Aggies

11. Wyoming Cowgirls

1. Harvard Crimson

2. Providence Friars

3. Syracuse Orange

4. Boston College

5. Connecticut Huskies

1. Florida Gators

2. Lipscomb Bison

3. Tennessee Volunteers

4. Alabama Crimson Tide

5. Ole Miss Rebels

6. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

1. Arkansas Razorbacks

2. Tulane Green Wave

3. Texas A&M Aggies

4. Texas Longhorns

5. Southern Methodist Mustangs

1. NC State Wolfpack

2. Virginia Cavaliers

3. Furman Paladins

4. North Carolina Tar Heels

5. Duke Blue Devils

6. Wake Forest Demon Deacons

7. Elon Phoenix

1. Stanford Cardinal

2. Washington Huskies

3. California Baptist Lancers

4. Oregon Ducks

5. Oregon State Beavers

6. Boise State Broncos

7. Portland Pilots

8. Cal Poly Mustangs

9. Gonzaga Bulldogs

10. UCLA Bruins

The first team to earn an at-large national qualifying spot in our above Kolas scenario is California Baptist. They have seven Kolas points.

The Oregon State women also have seven Kolas points. However, they are not among the top-two teams in their region who have not yet been selected to the national meet. That means that they are not yet eligible to be chosen at this stage in our selection process.

With the Lancers advancing, they give one point each to Oregon State and Utah Valley.

The Oregon State women have eight Kolas points and are now eligible to be selected. However, because we can calculate that the Beavers will be selected later on in the process (and without "pushing" Oregon into the national meet), the NCAA would prefer to take a team with the next-most points for now.

The Ole Miss women currently have six Kolas points, but they are not yet eligible to be selected for a spot to the national meet. Instead, Wisconsin, is the next team that will advance thanks to their five total Kolas points.

With the Badgers advancing to the national meet, they give two Kolas points to Ole Miss and one Kolas point each to Colorado, Furman, Oregon State and Utah.

The Oregon State women have nine Kolas points, but as mentioned earlier, we are waiting to select them until they don't have to "push" Oregon into the national meet. The Ole Miss women have eight Kolas points and are still not eligible to be selected.

The Furman women are the next eligible team to be selected. They have five Kolas points.

The Paladins give Kolas one point each to Oregon State, Colorado, Ole Miss, Utah and Colorado State.

The Oregon State women have 10 Kolas points, but as mentioned earlier, we are waiting to select them until they don't have to "push" Oregon into the national meet. The Ole Miss women have nine Kolas points and are still not eligible to be selected.

The Colorado women have five Kolas points. The Utah women also have five Kolas points, but they are not yet eligible to be selected. As a result, the Buffaloes are selected to advance to the national meet. They give one Kolas point each to Oregon State and Ole Miss.

The Oregon State women have 11 Kolas points, but as we mentioned earlier, we are waiting to select them until they don't have to "push" Oregon into the national meet. The Ole Miss women have 10 Kolas points and are still not eligible to be selected.

This leaves Utah with the next-most Kolas points (five) among eligible teams that can be selected. However, by selecting Utah, we would have to "push" the team ahead of them, Utah Valley, into the national meet. And because we can calculate that the Utes will get in on their own with out a "push" scenario, we're going to skip them for now.

That, in turn, fittingly leaves the Utah Valley women as the next eligible team with the most Kolas points (three). With no other eligible teams also holding as many Kolas points, the Wolverines are selected for the national meet.

UVU gives away zero Kolas points.

The Oregon State women have 11 Kolas points, but as we mentioned earlier, we are waiting to select them until they don't have to "push" Oregon into the national meet. The Ole Miss women have 10 Kolas points and are still not eligible to be selected.

This leaves Utah with the next-most Kolas points (five) among eligible teams that can be selected for the NCAA XC Championships. And because we don't have to worry about a "push" scenario anymore (since Utah Valley was just selected), we can now choose the Utes to advance to the national meet.

The Utah women give one Kolas point each to Oregon, Oregon State and Ole Miss.

The Oregon State women have 12 Kolas points, but as we mentioned earlier, we are waiting to select them until they don't have to "push" Oregon into the national meet. The Ole Miss women have 11 Kolas points and are still not eligible to be selected.

The Colorado State women hold the most amount of Kolas points (four) among all teams that are eligible to be selected (and haven't been yet). As such, the Rams advance to Charlottesville, Virginia and give one Kolas point each to Ole Miss and Oregon State.

The Oregon State women have 13 Kolas points, but as we mentioned earlier, we are waiting to select them until they don't have to "push" Oregon into the national meet. The Ole Miss women have 12 Kolas points and are still not eligible to be selected.

The Portland women have two Kolas points and would be in consideration for this spot in our selection process. However, they are not eligible to be selected since they are not among the top-two teams in their region who have yet to be selected for the NCAA XC Championships.

We now have a three-team tie between North Carolina, Syracuse and Duke. All of those teams have two Kolas points each. In order to break the tie between those three teams, we have to utilize the "head-to-head matchup" tie-breaker scenario.

Both Duke and North Carolina lose their head-to-head tie-breaking matchups to Syracuse. The Orange women beat both of those teams at the Virginia Invitational, the Nuttycombe Invitational and the ACC XC Championships.

With zero head-to-head losses, this means that the Syracuse women are the next team selected for a spot to the NCAA XC Championships. They give one Kolas point each to Oregon State and Ole Miss.

The Oregon State women have 14 Kolas points, but as we mentioned earlier, we are waiting to select them until they don't have to "push" Oregon into the national meet. The Ole Miss women have 13 Kolas points and are still not eligible to be selected.

With the Syracuse women now into the national meet, we come back to North Carolina and Duke as the eligible teams with the most Kolas points (two each). Once again, in order to break the tie between these two programs, we must compare their head-to-head matchups against each other.

The Duke women did beat North Carolina at the Nuttycombe Invitational. However, the Tar Heels defeated the Blue Devils at the Virginia Invitational, the ACC XC Championships and, in this scenario, the Southeast Regional XC Championships.

With three head-to-head wins, the North Carolina women get the tie-breaking edge over Duke. However, the outcome of that tie-breaking scenario largely didn't matter.

Both of these teams are in the same region. If Duke had won the tie-breaker, then they would have had to "push" the UNC women into the national meet. And because the NCAA prefers not to have a "push" scenario, and because we know that Duke would have been selected for the national meet anyways, the Tar Heels were going to be the next team chosen regardless of what happened with that tie-breaker.

By advancing to the national meet, North Carolina gives one Kolas point each to Duke, Oregon State and Ole Miss.

The Oregon State women have 15 Kolas points, but as we mentioned earlier, we are waiting to select them until they don't have to "push" Oregon into the national meet. The Ole Miss women have 14 Kolas points and are still not eligible to be selected.

With three Kolas points, the Duke women are the next team to be selected for the NCAA XC Championships. The Blue Devils now give one Kolas point each to Ole Miss, Oregon State and Boston College.

The Oregon State women have 16 Kolas points, but as we mentioned earlier, we are waiting to select them until they don't have to "push" Oregon into the national meet. The Ole Miss women have 15 Kolas points and are still not eligible to be selected.

Of all of the teams that are eligible to be selected, the Boston College women have the most Kolas points (two). The Portland women also have two Kolas points, but just like Ole Miss, they are not eligible to be selected.

That means that the Golden Eagles secure the 11th at-large bid to the NCAA XC Championships. They give one Kolas point to UCLA.

And now the madness begins.

The Ole Miss women have 15 Kolas points and are not eligible to be selected. And at this point in our process, they are out of contention. This is because TSR is projecting Tennessee and Alabama to finish ahead of them in the South region.

In that scenario, those two teams have very few Kolas points, meaning that it is unlikely that they are going to be selected among the first 13 at-large bids. With only the top-two teams from one region being eligible for consideration for a spot to the national meet at one time, the Ole Miss women effectively get stuck behind their two regional opponents.

The Portland women and UCLA women both have two Kolas points, but they are not eligible to be selected yet.

The Oregon State women have 16 Kolas points, but as mentioned earlier, we are waiting to select them until they don't have to "push" Oregon into the national meet. And with only two national qualifying spots remaining, you already know what is going to happen next.

Wake Forest, Michigan, Ohio State, Texas A&M, Oregon and Connecticut are all eligible to be selected for the national meet. They each have one Kolas point.

However, even though the Ohio State women are technically "eligible" to be selected, they wouldn't be able to advance in this scenario. This is because TSR is projecting the Buckeyes to finish behind Michigan in the Great Lakes region.

In that scenario, Ohio State would have had to "push" Michigan into the national meet. And because there is only one national qualifying spot left, the Buckeyes can't implement a "push" scenario because then two teams would advance -- and there's only spot remaining.

But for the sake of breaking ties, the Ohio State women actually have to STILL be considered among this group of teams for head-to-head tie-breaking matchup purposes.

Here are how some of the head-to-head tie-breakers unfold...

The only team of that group that doesn't have a head-to-head loss is Oregon. As a result, the Ducks win the six-team, one-point tie-breaker and advance to the national meet. The Ducks give away zero Kolas points.

Finally, with the Oregon women now safely into the national meet without a "push" scenario, the Oregon State women can be selected to advance to the national meet with 16 Kolas points. The Beavers give away one Kolas point to Cal Poly, although at this point in our selection process, that largely doesn't matter.

Oregon State is the final team to qualify for the 2023 NCAA XC Championships.

If we are trying to figure out who would have been the next team selected into the national meet behind Oregon State, then we would simply have to go back to the process that we underwent to select the Oregon women.

Wake Forest, Michigan, Ohio State, Texas A&M and Connecticut are all eligible for this not-so-desirable spot with one Kolas point each. Again, Ohio State couldn't actually be considered for this spot, but we keep them in this discussion for the purposes of breaking ties.

So, among that group of five teams, which of them don't have any head-to-head losses?

Well...

The only team that doesn't have a head-to-head loss is Wake Forest. And as a result, they would be viewed as our "First Team Out" of the 2023 NCAA XC Championships.