2023 Kolas XC Projections (Men & Women): Final Projections

Thanks to the incredible work from our friend, Bo Waggoner, we were able to collect data and then utilize his website, XC Quals, to construct our national meet qualifying projections for the Division One level. Oh, and a big thank you to Adam Cooke who gathered a heavy portion of this year's results for the simulator!

Be sure to check out Bo's site and play around with your own regional meet orders!

Also, if you want to learn more about the Kolas national qualifying process, be sure to also check out our UNDERSTANDING KOLAS page!

With that said, here are our official projections for the 2023 national meet. Below, we listed all of our automatic qualifiers (the projected top-two teams in each region) and then broke down how certain teams are expected to receive their at-large bids (the following 13 teams).

Let's begin!

NOTE: TEAMS IN BOLD INDICATE AUTO-LOCKS

1. Butler Bulldogs

2. Wisconsin Badgers

3. Michigan Wolverines

4. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

5. Michigan State Spartans

6. Purdue Boilermakers

1. Princeton Tigers

2. Villanova Wildcats

3. Georgetown Hoyas

4. Penn State Nittany Lions

1. Oklahoma State Cowgirls

2. Iowa State Cyclones

3. Tulsa Golden Hurricanes

4. Loyola (Ill.) Ramblers

5. South Dakota State Jackrabbits

1. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks

2. BYU Cougars

3. New Mexico Lobos

4. Air Force Falcons

5. Montana State Bobcats

6. Colorado Buffaloes

7. Colorado State Rams

8. Wyoming Cowboys

1. Iona Gaels

2. Harvard Crimson

3. Syracuse Orange

4. Providence Friars

5. Cornell Big Red

1. Tennessee Volunteers

2. Florida State Seminoles

3. Alabama Crimson Tide

4. Ole Miss Rebels

1. Texas Longhorns

2. Arkansas Razorbacks

3. Tulane Green Wave

4. Arkansas State Red Wolves

1. North Carolina Tar Heels

2. Eastern Kentucky Colonels

3. NC State Wolfpack

4. Wake Forest Demon Deacons

5. Virginia Cavaliers

6. Charlotte 49ers

7. Duke Blue Devils

8. Furman Paladins

9. Charleston Southern Buccaneers

1. Stanford Cardinal

2. Gonzaga Bulldogs

3. Portland Pilots

4. California Baptist Lancers

5. Washington Huskies

6. Boise State Broncos

7. Oregon Ducks

8. Cal Poly Mustangs

9. Santa Clara Broncos

We kick-off our at-large selection process by choosing the eligible team with the most Kolas points. In this case, that is the Syracuse men who have 19 Kolas points.

The Orange give out zero Kolas points.

The California Baptist men have 13 Kolas points, the most among any non-selected team at this point in our selection process. However, the Portland men finished in front of them at the West Regional XC Championships and the Pilots have very few Kolas points.

Because of this, we have a "push" scenario.

In order for California Baptist to get into the national meet, we are going to automatically advance the Portland men who finished ahead of them on Friday. And although the Portland men are now into the national meet, they do not give away any Kolas points because they were "pushed" into the meet.

California Baptist will now get into the national meet after Portland. They do not give out any Kolas points to any teams that are still waiting to be selected.

The Air Force men and the Notre Dame men have 10 Kolas points each, the most among eligible teams to be selected. The Colorado men have 12 Kolas points, but they are not eligible to be selected yet.

With Air Force and Notre Dame both tied with the same amount of Kolas points, we now have to implement a head-to-head tie-breaking scenario to see who gets this national qualifying spot. And because Air Force lost to Notre Dame earlier this year in their lone matchup, it's the Fighting Irish who would get this next spot.

However, the Notre Dame men finished 4th in the Great Lakes region, one place behind Michigan. Usually, we would have a "push" scenario in this instance. But the NCAA wants to avoid "push" scenarios whenever possible. And because we can calculate that Notre Dame will eventually qualify for the national meet on their own without a "push" scenario, we will pass on them for now.

The Air Force men, in theory, would be the next team selected. However, they finished 4th place in their region behind New Mexico. Yet again, we would have a "push" in this scenario.

But as we mentioned earlier, the NCAA wants to avoid "push" scenarios whenever possible. And because we can calculate that Air Force will eventually qualify for the national meet on their own without a "push" scenario, we will pass on them for now.

The Furman men have nine Kolas points, but they are not eligible to be selected yet.

This leaves the Wake Forest men as the next eligible team with the next-most Kolas points. The Demon Deacons have eight Kolas points.

However, the NC State men finished ahead of Wake Forest at the Southeast regional meet. Except this time, we know that Wake Forest can't get into the national meet without NC State also getting into the national meet. And NC State, despite their great race, won't have enough Kolas points to get into the national meet on their own.

As such, we are going to automatically advance the NC State men. And although the Wolfpack men are now into the national meet, they do not give away any Kolas points because they were "pushed" into the meet.

Wake Forest will now get into the national meet after NC State. They do not give away any Kolas points to any teams.

The Demon Deacons give two Kolas points to Virginia and two Kolas points to Notre Dame. They also give one Kolas point each to Colorado, Furman, Notre Dame, New Mexico, Air Force and Michigan.

The Colorado men have 13 Kolas points, but they are not eligible to be selected yet. The Notre Dame men have 12 Kolas points and the Air Force men have 11 Kolas points, but as we mentioned earlier, we are waiting to select them until they don't have to "push" another team into the national meet. The Furman men have 10 Kolas points, but they are not eligible to be selected yet.

We are now left with Michigan and Virginia, two teams that have eight Kolas points each. In order to break the tie between Michigan and Virginia, we need to utilize the head-to-head tie-breaking method.

Michigan lost to Virginia earlier this season at the Virginia Invite. And because of that, the Cavaliers advance to the national meet at this point in our selection process.

The Virginia men give one Kolas point to Air Force.

The Colorado men have 13 Kolas points, but they are not eligible to be selected yet. The Notre Dame men and the Air Force men both have 12 Kolas points, but as we mentioned earlier, we are waiting to select them until they don't have to "push" another team into the national meet.
 

The Furman men have 10 Kolas points, but they are not eligible to be selected yet.

The team with the next-most Kolas points is Michigan. They have eight Kolas points. As such, they advance to the national meet. The Wolverines give two Kolas points to Colorado and one Kolas point each to Furman, Notre Dame, New Mexico and Air Force.

The Colorado men have 15 Kolas points, but they are not eligible to be selected yet. Both the Notre Dame and Air Force men have 13 Kolas points.

We were previously waiting to select Notre Dame and Air Force because we wanted to avoid them implementing a "push" scenario in their respective regions. Luckily for the Fighting Irish, they can now be selected because the Michigan men have now qualified.

The Notre Dame men give one Kolas point to Colorado and one Kolas point to Furman.

The Colorado men have 16 Kolas points, but they are not eligible to be selected yet. The Air Force men have 13 Kolas points, but as we mentioned earlier, we are waiting to select them until they don't have to "push" another team into the national meet. The Furman men have 12 Kolas points, but they are not eligible to be selected yet.

The team with the next-most Kolas points is New Mexico. They have eight Kolas points. As such, they advance to the national meet. The Lobos give one Kolas point each to Colorado and to Furman.

The Colorado men have 17 Kolas points, but they are not eligible to be selected yet. The Furman men have 13 Kolas points, but they are not yet eligible to be selected.

We were previously waiting to select the Air Force men because we wanted to avoid them implementing a "push" scenario in the Mountain region. Luckily for the Falcons, they can now be selected because the New Mexico men have now qualified.

The Air Force men give one Kolas point each to Colorado, Furman and Boise State.

The Colorado men have a staggering 18 Kolas points and yes, they are now finally eligible to be selected for the national meet. However, the Montana State men finished in front of them at the Mountain Regional XC Championships and the Bobcat men have very few Kolas points.

Because of this, we have a "push" scenario.

In order for Colorado to get into the national meet, we are going to automatically advance the Montana State men who finished ahead of them on Friday. And although the Montana State men are now into the national meet, they do not give away any Kolas points because they were "pushed" into the meet.

Colorado will now get into the national meet after Montana State. They give away one Kolas point each to Washington and Oregon.

The Furman men have 14 Kolas points and the Boise State men have six Kolas points. However, at this point in our selection process, neither of those teams will be advancing (and truthfully, we've been well past that point for a while).

The team with the next-most Kolas points that is eligible to be selected is Georgetown. They have three Kolas points and are chosen as the final men's team to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships.

The Hoya men give one Kolas point each to Furman, Boise State, Utah State, Washington, Duke, Navy, Charlotte and Providence, although at this point in our selection process, that largely doesn't matter.

If we were to continue our Kolas math beyond the 13 at-large bids, which team would emerge as the "First Team Out" of the national meet?

The Furman men have 15 Kolas points and the Boise State men have seven Kolas points, although they would not be eligible for this spot.

This leaves us with Washington as the next eligible team with the next-most Kolas points (three). They previously had two Kolas points in the last step, but because Georgetown advanced to the national meet, they received another Kolas point.

As a result, the Huskies are the "First Team Out" of the national meet.

NOTE: TEAMS IN BOLD INDICATE AUTO-LOCKS

1. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

2. Wisconsin Badgers

3. Michigan State Spartans

4. Michigan Wolverines

5. Ohio State Buckeyes

1. Georgetown Hoyas

2. Penn State Nittany Lions

3. Penn Quakers

4. West Virginia Mountaineers

5. Villanova Wildcats

6. Princeton Tigers

1. Oklahoma State Cowgirls

2. Iowa State Cyclones

3. Northwestern Wildcats

4. Minnesota Golden Gophers

1. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks

2. BYU Cougars

3. Utah Utes

4. Colorado Buffaloes

5. Utah Valley Wolverines

6. Colorado State Rams

7. New Mexico Lobos

8. Utah State Aggies

1. Syracuse Orange

2. Boston College Golden Eagles

3. Providence Friars

4. Harvard Crimson

5. Columbia Lions

6. Connecticut Huskies

1. Tennessee Volunteers

2. Florida Gators

3. Ole Miss Rebels

4. Alabama Crimson Tide

5. Lipscomb Bison

6. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

1. Arkansas Razorbacks

2. Texas A&M Aggies

3. LSU Tigers

4. Tulane Green Wave

5. Texas Longhorns

1. NC State Wolfpack

2. Furman Paladins

3. Virginia Cavaliers

4. Wake Forest Demon Deacons

5. North Carolina Tar Heels

6. Duke Blue Devils

7. Virginia Tech Hokies

1. Stanford Cardinal

2. Oregon Ducks

3. Washington Huskies

4. California Baptist Lancers

5. Gonzaga Bulldogs

6. Portland Pilots

7. UC-Davis Aggies

8. Cal Poly Mustangs

9. Oregon State Beavers

We kick-off our at-large selection process by selecting the eligible team with the most Kolas points. In this case, that is the Washington women who have nine Kolas points.

The Huskies give one Kolas point each to Virginia, Oregon State, CBU, Michigan State, Lipscomb and Ole Miss.

The team with the next-most Kolas points is Michigan State. They have nine Kolas points. They previously had eight Kolas points in the last step, but because Washington advanced to the national meet, they received another Kolas point.

The Spartans give one Kolas point each to Virginia, Oregon State and California Baptist.

The team with the next-most Kolas points is Virginia. They have nine Kolas points. They previously had eight Kolas points in the last step, but because Washington advanced to the national meet, they received another Kolas point.

The Cavaliers give zero Kolas points.

The California Baptist women and the Ole Miss women both have seven Kolas points at this stage in our selection process and they are both eligible to be selected.

The Oregon State women also have seven Kolas points, but they are not eligible to be selected yet. That is because the Beavers are not among the top-two teams in their region who have not yet been selected to the national meet.

In order to break the tie between California Baptist and Ole Miss, we need to utilize the head-to-head tie-breaking method. Ole Miss lost to California Baptist earlier this season at Nuttycombe. And because of that, the Lancers advance to the national meet at this point in our selection process.

The CBU women give one Kolas point each to Utah Valley and Oregon State.

With the California Baptist women now out of the way, the team with the next-most Kolas points is Ole Miss. They have seven Kolas points. The Oregon State women have eight Kolas points, but they are still not eligible to be selected yet.

The Ole Miss women give one Kolas point each to Alabama, Oregon State and Lipscomb.

The Oregon State women have nine Kolas points, but are still not eligible to be selected. The Lipscomb women have seven Kolas points, the most among eligible teams. However, the Alabama women finished in front of them at the South Regional XC Championships and the Crimson Tide women have very few Kolas points.

Because of this, we have a "push" scenario.

In order for Lipscomb to get into the national meet, we are going to automatically advance the Alabama women who finished ahead of them on Friday. And although the Alabama women are now into the national meet, they do not give away any Kolas points because they were "pushed" into the meet.

Lipscomb will now get into the national meet after Alabama. The Bison do, however, give one Kolas point to the Oregon State women.

The Oregon State women have 10 Kolas points, but are still not eligible to be selected. The Colorado women have six Kolas points, the most among eligible teams. In theory, they would be the next team selected to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships.

In order for the Colorado women to get into the national meet at this point in the selection process, they would need to "push" the Utah women into the national meet since the Utes finished ahead of the Buffaloes at the Mountain Regional XC Championships.

However, because we can calculate that the Buffaloes will be selected later on in the selection process (and without a "push" scenario), the NCAA would prefer to take a team with the next-most points for now rather than implement a "push" scenario.

In this case, that means that the Utah women will be the team selected to qualify for the national meet. They have four Kolas points.

The Utes give two Kolas points to Colorado and one Kolas point to Oregon State.

The Oregon State women have 11 Kolas points, but are still not eligible to be selected. The Colorado women have eight Kolas points, the most among eligible teams. And this time, we can give the Buffaloes a bid to the national meet without any caveats.

Colorado gives one Kolas point to Providence and one Kolas point to Oregon State.

The Oregon State women have 12 Kolas points, but are still not eligible to be selected. The team with the next-most Kolas points is Utah Valley. They have four Kolas points and are selected for the next at-large bid in our national qualifying process.

The Wolverines give out zero Kolas points.

The Oregon State women have 12 Kolas points, but are still not eligible to be selected.

We now have a three-team tie between Colorado State, Providence and Harvard. All of those teams have three Kolas points each. In order to break the tie between those three teams, we have to utilize the "head-to-head matchup" tie-breaker scenario.

Providence lost to Colorado State earlier this season. Harvard and Providence each have one win against each other, but Providence would win that tie-breaker since their win came more recently (at the Northeast regional meet).

Colorado State defeated both of those teams in their respective matchups this fall. And because the Rams don't have any head-to-head losses, they are the next team selected for the national meet.

The Colorado State women give one Kolas point to Oregon State.

The Oregon State women have 13 Kolas points, but are still not eligible to be selected.

We now return to Harvard and Providence, two teams in the same region (Northeast) that have the same number of Kolas points (three). Yet again, we have to utilize the head-to-head tie-breaking scenario.

Harvard beat Providence earlier this season at the Nuttycombe Invite. However, Providence beat Harvard at the Northeast regional meet. And because Providence's win came more recently, they win this tie-breaker.

As a result, the Friars earn a spot to the national meet. Providence gives one Kolas point each to Oregon State, Harvard, Duke, North Carolina and Portland.

The Oregon State women have 14 Kolas points, but are still not eligible to be selected. However, at this point in our selection process, the Beavers will not be advancing at all (and truthfully, we've been well past that point for a while).

The team with the next-most Kolas points is Harvard. They have four Kolas points. They previously had three Kolas points in the last step, but because Providence advanced to the national meet, they received another Kolas point.

Therefore, the Crimson are the final women's team selected for the 2023 NCAA XC Championships. The Harvard women give one Kolas point to Oregon State, although at this point in our selection process, that largely doesn't matter.

NOTE: Neither the NCAA nor XCQuals.com show which teams are the "First Team Out" for the men's and women's NCAA XC Championships. These calculations are done by hand by TSR. In this made up, non-existent 14th spot, it is unclear if the UNC women would factor into the strictly theoretical, head-to-head tie-breaking math listed below. It may be possible that the New Mexico women are actually the "First Team Out".

If we were to continue our Kolas math beyond the 13 at-large bids, which team would emerge as the "First Team Out" of the national meet?
 

The Oregon State women have 15 Kolas points, but would not be eligible for this spot.

New Mexico, Michigan, Penn, Wake Forest, Columbia and Connecticut all have one Kolas point each and are all eligible for this not-so-desirable spot. North Carolina has two Kolas points. And like the above steps, we will have to utilize the head-to-head tie-breaking method.

However, even though the Connecticut women and North Carolina women are technically "eligible," they wouldn't be able to take this non-existent 14th at-large bid. This is because Columbia beat Connecticut at the Northeast regional meet and Wake Forest beat North Carolina at the Southeast regional meet.

As a result, Connecticut would have had to "push" Columbia and UNC would have had to "push" Wake Forest into this spot. And because there is only one spot available, neither the Huskies nor the Tar Heels can implement a "push" scenario because then two those teams would take this position -- and there's only one spot remaining.

But for the sake of breaking ties, the Connecticut women and North Carolina actually have to be considered among this group of teams for head-to-head tie-breaking matchup purposes.

Here are how some of the head-to-head tie-breakers unfold...

Because Wake Forest does not technically have a head-to-head loss, they would win this entire seven-team, one-point tie-breaker, therefore being deemed as the "First Team Out" of the national meet.