2023 Husky Classic Preview: Part Two (3k & 5k)

Just like yesterday's Husky Classic preview for the men's and women's 800 meters and mile, we've selected a handful of top contenders in the 3k and the 5k to highlight for this weekend's battle in Seattle (I'm gonna have to trademark that one).

Let's waste no time and get started...

*Note: This preview was written prior to official heat sheets being released. The Stride Report only had the accepted entries list available for this preview, meaning that certain names mentioned below could be absent from competition in Seattle this weekend.

On paper, Ella Baran is probably not one of the first three or four women who you would pick to win this race. But truthfully, I think she could be just as dangerous as Kaylee Mitchell, Taylor Roe, Natalie Cook, Lauren Gregory and Grace Fetherstonhaugh over 3000 meters. The former D3 star got better and better as the 2022 cross country season unraveled and she showed tremendous poise back in December en route to a 15:33 (5k) PR. I could see her running as fast as 8:54 (3k) this weekend.

One could argue that Mia Cochran was at her best as a miler in high school. But after a tremendous cross country season as a rookie this past fall, the 3000 meters could be her theoretical sweet spot. Sure, her last few mile efforts have been a bit underwhelming, but we've seen how dangerous this Arkansas freshman can be when she's firing on all cylinders.

Everyone knows how great Natalie Cook is...we just don't know how great she is over 3000 meters. After emerging as a true superstar on the grass and running 15:24 for 5000 meters back in December, there's potential for this rookie to run around or under 8:55 for 3000 meters. And if things break perfectly for her...could a sub-8:50 mark be in the cards for her?

There's not a single bad thing on Fetherstonhaugh's resume right now. She has not only been super consistent, but she continues to get better with each passing week. The 3k is probably her ideal event and her recent display of mile speed should allow her to stay competitive in the latter portions of this race...I think.

I naturally assume that all New Mexico women are at their best in the 5000 meters, but Dishon has a chance to change that narrative. The long distance ace has run a 4:37 mile conversion this winter, meaning that she could move up to the 3k this weekend and throw down something big. She's quietly having a great season right now.

No one should be surprised if Lauren Gregory runs around 8:48 and wins this race. Her season debut over 5000 meters (15:34) was solid. However, her pair of mile efforts on her home track (4:31 open win and 4:29 anchor split) boosted her already-impressive resume to a new level. The 3000 meters has historically been Gregory's best event (which some may debate) and given what we saw with her turnover the other weekend, that narrative could be solidified even further on Friday.

I'll be honest, I have no idea what to expect from Madison Heisterman in this race. She's predominately a miler, holding a 4:33 PR in the event, but it's not often that she attacks distances longer than that. And when she does, the results haven't necessarily blown us away. Yes, she has "only" run 4:38 in the mile this season, but that was her only attempt at the event this winter and she's almost certainly more fit than that...so what does that mean for her upcoming 3k race?

Few women are better suited for 3000 meters more than Tori Herman. The indoor national meet qualifier in the event last year is a dynamic distance talent who is a nationally competitive name. However, this weekend will be the ideal opportunity for her to prove that she can reach that next level and potentially contend for an All-American spot a month from now.

The recent rise in the mile that we've seen from Billah Jepkirui (who recently posted a 4:35 mile time), when paired with her fantastic cross country success from this past fall, theoretically makes this Oklahoma State star a perfect fit for the 3000 meters. Whether or not she delivers on that potential is something that we'll find out this weekend.

One of the biggest breakout stars of the past year is set to enter the women's 3000 meters in Seattle this weekend...but I don't think she'll actually contest the event. The Utah Valley ace has already run a converted 9:12 (3k) mark two weeks ago, and she'll surely be better than that this weekend. However, Kemboi is undeniably better suited for the 5000 meters. She'll likely scratch out of this event in favor of the longer race.

After running 15:37 (5k) back in December, it feels safe to say that this New Mexico star is going to qualify for the NCAA Indoor Championships in that event. And when you see that she has been attacking the middle distances since then, it makes sense that she would (slightly) move back up and try to dip under 9:00 over 3000 meters this weekend.

It may be easy to overlook Cailie Logue in this loaded field...but that would be a massive mistake if you did. She's already run 4:42 and 4:37 in the mile this season. She has a history of peaking, is historically at her best in the longer distances and holds a 9:03 (3k) personal best. I feel confident about Logue going under 9:00 this weekend, but..by how much?

I legitimately think Kaylee Mitchell could win this race. She was closer to the elite tier than not on the grass this past fall, has run 8:54 (3k) this winter and just ran 4:32 in the mile the other weekend. She's on absolute fire right now and is arguably just as fit as a handful of the best women in this field. This could be a massive statement race which proves to the rest of the country that she is not just an All-American contender, but an All-American favorite.

Plourde has already run 9:07 for 3000 meters this winter, a solid time which could position her for a sub-9:00 effort this weekend. But the Utah ace is arguably at her best in the mile and I don't think that's a hot take. If she wants to be fresh for the mile on Saturday, it may make more sense for her to scratch this event.

I really like that Annika Reiss is moving up to the 3000 meters this weekend. She was excellent on the grass this past fall, clearly boasting improved aerobic fitness, and has run mile conversions of 4:36 and 4:33 this season. In theory, a massive PR could be in store for Reiss, but there is still a lot of uncertainty about what she can do at sea level. And that uncertainty doesn't just pertain to any downside she has. That uncertainty also relates to a potentially limitless ceiling.

Here's a hot take: Taylor Roe could not finish in the top-three of this race and still be viewed as a legitimate national title 3k favorite. This race will likely be a time trial scenario, but we've seen Roe at her best when she's in more tactically nuanced races. Instinctively, she's great on championship stages. If she runs something around 8:54 and finishes 3rd overall, I think she'll be in just as good of a position to win NCAA gold this year as she was last year.

This Gonzaga ace ran 13:33 for 5000 meters back in December, suggesting that he could play a major role in this 3k. But on the other hand, his last two performances have been...modest. Running 8:12 (3k) and 4:02 (mile) leaves me a bit unsure about expectations for Guermali, but the talent is there for him to do something special.

The main headline of this race is going to be Duncan Hamilton vs Fouad Messaoudi. The Montana State superstar has run 7:43 (3k) converted this winter and has already proven to be a juggernaut in pretty much any distance event that he toes the line for. However, Hamilton was on the bad end of a mile upset against Wil Smith last weekend. I imagine that Hamilton will be hungry to avenge that loss and make a statement over an Oklahoma State runner who looks like an All-American lock right now.

I'm admittedly surprised that Brodey Hasty isn't racing the 5k this weekend. He's historically at his best in that event and time is running out for him to get into a fast enough race to qualify for the NCAA Indoor Championships (which is truthfully a big ask for him). That said, I also understand why he's entered in the 3k. Hasty ran a converted 3:58 mile the other weekend, so a natural progression by stepping up in distance seems like the right call.

Arkansas' latest breakout ace has a chance to win The Stride Report's "Most Improved" award this season after running excellent times of 3:58 (mile) and 7:49 (3k). Hilton seems to have the "it" factor, but can he elevate his fitness to an even higher level to potentially enter the national qualifying conversation?

Luke Houser is a 3k runner, not a miler, and I will die on this hill. Yes, I know that he's run a 3:55 mile PR this winter and yes, I know that his current 3k PR is "only" 7:53. But everything about him and how he has progressed leads me to believe that he can run 7:44 or 7:45 this weekend. He has only finished one indoor 3k race since 2020 and his 2022 cross country season was fairly underrated. I think he'll play a massive role in this field.

I'm a big fan of Chad Johnson. I have been ever since I watched him dominate the New Balance Indoor National Championships during his senior year of high school. The Iowa State veteran has had a few moments of inconsistency throughout his career, but after running personal bests of 3:59 (mile) and 13:33 (5k) this winter, it feels safe to say that a sub-7:50 (3k) performance on Friday is absolutely in his wheelhouse.

This could be a career-defining race for Fouad Messaoudi. Sure, finish at the NCAA XC Championships put him on everyone's radar and his 7:44 (3k) win in December validated his talent. But taking down this kind of field would further cement this Moroccan distance ace as a true national elite within the NCAA.

After a stunning breakout race at the NCAA XC Championships, Prosser has validated some of that fitness by running a converted 4:00 mile mark the other week. Moving up in distance to the 3k will certainly suit his skillset, but by how much is still unclear.

I think Ryan Schoppe may be just as dangerous as Messaoudi, Hamilton, Hilton and Houser in this field. The Oklahoma State ace is fairly dynamic and I like his explosiveness in certain moments of racing. With a 7:46 (3k) personal best, I think Schoppe could run around 7:44 this weekend if everything goes perfectly, although that's a lot easier said than done.

So far this season, we've seen Billie Hatch throw down marks of 9:13 (3k) and 15:53 (5k), the latter of which was a personal best. But there are subtle signs that Hatch could be a 5k runner capable of running in the 15:40s range. This field shouldn't be too overwhelming for someone of her caliber and that, in turn, could lead her to a new PR...I think.

I have no idea what to expect from this long-time distance running veteran. She hasn't raced in a Colorado singlet since last spring. But with personal bests of 15:50 (5k) and 33:01 (10k), as well a prior cross country All-American honor, Johnson could be in store for a massive personal best this weekend if she's at full strength.

We would expect Everlyn Kemboi to contest the 5k over the 3k. It's abundantly clear that she's better the longer the racing distance becomes. She has just as much raw aerobic-based talent as anyone else in this field, but her indoor track resume is far less established in comparison to a few other women. The Utah Valley star feels like a major x-factor going into Friday.

Depending on who you ask, one would probably say that Amelia Mazza-Downie is the overall collegiate favorite in this race. The New Mexico star owns a 15:37 (5k) personal best, was an All-American this past fall and was an All-American in this event last winter. However, her lone race this season was a 5k effort at Boston University where she faded to a time of 16:00. That race was likely a fluke and she'll have a very good chance of scaring her personal best this weekend. Even so, there is still some (very minor) uncertainty surrounding Mazza-Downie heading into this race.

There's admittedly not really a whole lot to talk about with Ruby Smee. For the most part, she's just really darn solid. The San Francisco ace is capable of running a fast time (she holds a 15:36 PR for 5000 meters) and is generally pretty consistent. I don't know if I see her winning this race, but I would be surprised if she wasn't among the top-five collegiates and if she wasn't running faster than 15:45.

This second-year distance talent oozes potential. And with current marks of 9:07 (3k) and 15:59 (5k), it's clear that Thorvaldson can be a nationally competitive name one day (at least, more so than she already is). But we're still waiting for this rising Arkansas talent to deliver on her full capabilities -- and Friday could be the perfect opportunity for her to do so.

Is Emily Venters favored to win this race? New Mexico fans may say no, but I certainly think she could be. The Utah long distance talent already has a very strong 9:00 (3k) win from earlier this season over an excellent field. And on paper, she is historically even better over the 5k and 10k distances. It seems fair to suggest that Venters could scare the 15:40 barrier this weekend. And if she does that, then could she end up winning it all? I don't think that's an unrealistic suggestion.

There are a lot of men on Colorado's roster who have flown under the radar. Part of that is because the Buffaloes don't race that often on the indoor oval and the part of that is because their current depth chart is still developing in a handful of areas. But Jace Aschbrenner is a really solid talent who has run 7:56 (3k) and 13:52 (5k) as a second-year freshman last winter. With more experience under his belt, this Buffalo runner could be due for a big result.

I'll be honest, I never know what to expect from Isaac Green. His resume as a whole is super impressive, holding personal bests of 7:49 (3k) and 13:29 (5k), but it seems like we get a fairly wide range of results every time he toes the line. To be clear, this Washington distance talent doesn't usually have poor races, but with his two DNF results on his TFRRS profile this season, Green feels like a major wild card for Friday's race.

This Gonzaga standout is entered in both the 3000 meters and the 5000 meters...but I don't know which event he should go all-in for. On one hand, Guermali has run 13:33 for 5000 meters and another jump up in his personal best could put him in the national qualifying conversation if he gets super lucky. On the other hand, he may have more to gain by going after a fast 3k race and seeing how close to a national qualifying spot he can get to in that event.

I think this could be a huge race for Patrick Kiprop. He's an all-out, aerobic grinder who thrives in the longer distances. This field shouldn't be too much for him to handle and he has strung together a pair of mile (4:08) and 3k (7:53) personal bests this winter. His 13:35 personal best over 5000 meters could absolutely be in jeopardy this Friday.

I am really looking forward to seeing Dylan Schubert race. The Furman distance star had a monster cross country season this past fall and seemingly thrived in super fast, aggressively-paced races. His 7:52 (3k) flat-track conversion showed promise in his season debut and now he'll be moving up to his ideal distance with the rust brushed off of him. I could see him running 13:29 (5k) on a perfect day.

After having the best cross country season of his life and recently running 3:59 in the mile to upset Duncan Hamilton, you have to imagine that Wil Smith has some swagger right now. That kind of confidence can sometimes be risky to lean on, but it can also put guys like him in positions to run monster personal bests.

A solid 2022 cross country season followed by a 13:45 (5k) season debut leaves us at TSR shrugging our shoulders and saying, "Yeah, that seems about right." Sweeney ran his 5k personal best of 13:37 at this exact meet last year and I imagine that he'll run something similar on Friday.

After running a 3:59 (mile) personal best and then a 7:50 (3k) flat-track conversion, Carson Williams seems to be testing how far his momentum will take him. And right now, there's very little reason to doubt that this Furman ace can under 13:40 for 5000 meters on Friday.

*Collegiates only, assumes all runners will contest the race that they are entered in.