2023 Foot Locker XC National Championship Preview

Answers by Donny Speas, questions, edits & additional commentary via Garrett Zatlin

What? You thought that the high school cross country season was over?

Nope! The Foot Locker XC National Championships, which have gone through a handful of meet name changes over the years until returning back to it's original title this fall, will once again feature many of the most elite prep distance runners going head-to-head this Saturday.

Below, we asked our high school and recruiting correspondent, Donny Speas, to give his pre-thoughts and analysis on the girl's and boy's major showdowns happening tomorrow. Also, if you want to see our predictions, click here!

I definitely don’t see a clear-cut favorite for the boy’s national title.

I do, however, see a regional duo that looks stronger than everyone else this season (which isn't necessarily to say that they are or are not the best options, individually). That same-state pairing is Ryan Pajak and Drew Griffith, both of whom are from Pennsylvania and both of whom are committed to run for Notre Dame in 2024.

As of right now, I’ll give Pajak the slight edge in terms of being viewed as a favorite, mainly due to his victory at the Foot Locker Northeast regional meet where he ran a course record 14:51 (5k), beating out Griffith by three seconds. Of course, it would be foolish to discount Griffith. He owns the fastest seasonal best of anyone in the country over 5000 meters (14:21) and is surely itching for a shot to avenge his only loss on the season.

But in the grand scheme of things, both of these young men are highly dynamic and have lethal skillsets in terms of combining their speed and endurance.

Another contender is Cameron Todd, yet another Notre Dame commit, who is fresh off of a runner-up finish from the NXN Championships last weekend. He’s got experience from Foot Locker National regional meet in the past, but more importantly, he finished 6th last year on this same stage and is the top returner heading into Saturday’s race.

In terms of experience, recent success and knowing how to navigate both his competition and this source, it would be hard to blame anyone who picked Todd for gold.

The fourth and final athlete who I think has a significant shot at winning the individual title is Stanford commit, Patrick Koon.

The Florida is one of two athletes in this field who have remained unbeaten all season (the other being Pajak) and he made quick work of the Foot Locker South regional meet, winning the race by six seconds a couple of weeks ago. Koon has been on a major hot streak since March and has yet to have a poor race in any setting.

Again, I'll lean towards Pajak being my personal favorite for this Saturday, but I wouldn’t be surprised if any of these four athletes took home the title.

Similar to my NXN Championship preview, I’m going to list off a few names and explain why each athlete has a case for being an All-American...

Colin Whitaker (PA)

Yet another Notre Dame commit, I think Colin Whitaker can be an All-American because of how familiar he is when racing two of the top athletes in this field (Pajak and Griffith). Throw in a 14:42 (5k) personal best and previous championship experience (he was 32nd at this meet last year) and you’ve got a sneaky under-the-radar athlete who could certainly finish among the top-15 on Saturday.

Thomas Westphal (MI)

This may be cheating by calling him a "surprise" individual, but I don’t feel like there’s been enough hype around the Foot Locker Midwest champion. He’s often gotten overshadowed by runners whom he soundly beat at the regional meet. Yes, he may have lost his state meet, and his personal best may not be as fast as others on this list, but I firmly believe that Westphal is going to be a top-10 name on Saturday.

Zach Hillhouse (UT)

I’m picking Hillhouse largely due to the success that Utah athletes have had at the national stage so far this year. This guy reminds me a ton of Sam Hansen, last year's 3rd place finisher at this meet and another Utah athlete who was under the radar before having the race of his life on this stage. Hillhouse is a guy who very recently took down Herriman’s entire top-seven. And after what we saw last weekend from the many Utah athletes at NXN, it only feels right to mention Hillhouse in this section.

If this race ends up being an all-out true test of fitness race, then there are two big winners here: the aforementioned PA duo of Drew Griffith and Ryan Pajak. Both runners have demonstrated that they are confident and capable of front-running and both have set multiple course records during their 2023 fall campaigns.

In fact, Pajak’s best race this season was at the Foot Locker Northeast regional meet where he broke the course record after a back and forth duel with Griffith. Meanwhile, Drew Griffith’s best race came at the MileStat Invitational where he led from the gun and was rewarded with the 16th-fastest 5k in high school cross country history (14:21).

Based on Patrick Koon's incredible long distance marks on the track from earlier this year, specifically his marks of 8:44 (3200) and 14:11 (indoor 5k), you can see why he would want something quick from the gun.

While maybe not national title contenders, other names like Ty Steorts and Thomas Westphal may theoertically enjoy quicker races. The former has run 14:38 (5k) on admittedly super fast Adidas XC Challenge course and the latter has peaked beautifully for the postseason.

On the flip side, if it goes tactical there are many athletes who stand to benefit.

One big group that stands to benefit immensely from something slower are the athletes who ran at NXN. Having to run back-to-back national championship meets within seven days is never easy and I’m sure many of those athletes may be hoping for a more tactical race for that exact reason.

Anthony Provenzano, an Indiana commit, has yet to show his true form this postseason. However, he is incredibly consistent. He has yet to break 15:00 (5k), but of his 10k cross country races this year, eight of them have not been slower than 15:15. If this race lags far enough back to the 15-minute mark, then I would keep this future Hoosier on your radar.

One sneaky-good athlete who could be an issue if he’s still hanging around in the last quarter mile is Mizzou commit, Carter Spradling (CA). He holds one of the fastest 800-meter personal bests in the field (1:55) and it’s not uncommon to see him drop down to 400 meters during track season. That's not turnover or finishing speed some of these guys may want to deal with at the end of this race.

After being the first man out of a trip to San Diego last year, and the first man out of a trip to NXN, I’m sure Ponderosa (CA) senior, Joshua Chu, has something to prove. He’s had a quiet season, only running in two big meets. However, in both of those showing, he ran fairly well, earning a huge 16th place finish at the Woodbridge XC Classic as well as a 6th place finish at the California state meet.

Last weekend, at the Foot Locker West regional meet, he finally got the win he deserved, emerging victorious by one second on the extremely difficult Mt. SAC course. He’s also got national meet experience, albeit on the track. This past summer, he finished 8th in the Nike Outdoor Nationals 5k, running 14:50.

Chu doesn’t really have any "bad" days, he always seems to be there. But up until last Saturday, we haven’t really seen him make that leap from an “also ran” to someone who could be a title contender. Keep an eye on this UCLA commit. If he continues this hot streak, then who knows what he’s capable of.

My bold prediction is that the youngest athlete in this race, sophomore Alex Fisher, will finish as an All-American on Saturday.

This year is something of an oddity. Only one underclassman qualified for the national meet. Normally, we see two, three or four underclassmen (not always, but usually). However, Fisher was the only athlete to get it done this year. Fisher had a fairly late start to his cross country season, opening up on the 28th of October with a 20-second PR to run 16:26 for 5000 meters.

Since his season opener, he’s been consistently dropping time. At his second race of the season, he dropped nearly 30 seconds off his PR, running 15:57. And by the time that he toed the line for the regional meet, Fisher’s personal best stood at 15:19, nearly 70 seconds faster than where it stood at the start of the fall. Then, once again, he shaved off even more time from his PR, lowering it to 15:07 in a performance that earned him a ticket to San Diego.

This rising star is on fire. He’s got all the momentum in the world, and although I don’t think he’ll set another PR this fall (mainly because of the challenging course more than anything else), I do think that this sophomore star has the potential to be an All-American...and maybe even a top-10 finisher on a perfect day.

Based on what we've seen this fall, I think we have to be transparent in saying that this is not the Ellie Shea of the spring and summer months who would dominate every race that she was entered in (and would routinely mix it up with the pros).

That being said, I still think that she’s a contender for the national title, even if she’s not the favorite. She’s got plenty of experience and when she's at her best, Shea is the best high school athlete in the country.

In addition to Shea, I think that there are four other runners with realistic shots at the national title: Zariel Macchia (NY), Abby Faith Cheeseman (TN), Rachel Forsyth (MI) and Elizabeth Leachman (TX). We saw Cheeseman, Forsyth and Leachman all face-off at NXN last weekend, but I get the feeling that San Diego will have much better weather than what we saw in Oregon.

Macchia is definitely the most under-looked athlete in this field, despite only losing once this season (a runner-up finish at her state meet). She also has the advantage of having slightly fresher legs than the rest of the field as she did not compete last weekend.

For that reason, I’m giving Macchia the status of national title favorite, but only by the smallest of margins and that's not necessarily me indicating that I will or will not pick her for the win.

But in terms of overall seasonal resumes, it's hard to look past Forsyth and Leachman who may have had the best cross country seasons of any high school girl in the nation prior to last weekend. In terms of raw fitness and talent, I certainly wouldn't argue with anyone who chose one of them.

Y’all know the drill by now. Here are a few athletes who I believe could fit this question...

Eleanor Raker (NV)

For those of you familiar with my writing, y’all know that I like to pick athletes who are coming down to race at sea-level from higher elevations. Eleanor Raker fits that description to a tee. She’s yet to have a race at sea-level where she’s run slower than 17:58 (5k) this season. Last year, that would have put her right in the thick of All-American contention.

Nicki Southerland (IN)

Nicki Southerland is more known for her exploits on the track, but she is just as good on the grass. In fact, this is her second time qualifying for a national championship in cross country (albeit,this is her only time competing at one). If Southerland can find a way to stick around until the last 400 meters, then her 2:05 (800) speed may be what it takes to give her the final burst to finish into the top-15.

Virginia Kraus (PA)

Up until the Foot Locker Northeast regional meet, Virginia Kraus was undefeated. Many may discount her chances of a top-15 finish after “only” finishing 5th at her regional meet, but when you look at the victories that Kraus picked up earlier in the season (at competitive meets like Paul Short), it becomes clearer that, on a good day, Kraus is more than capable of mixing it up with the best runners in the country.

Just like on the guys side, pretty much every one of the national title contenders could benefit from a fast race simply due to their elite fitness.

The first athletes who come to mind are the aggressive front-runners like Rachel Forsyth (MI) and Elizabeth Leachman (TX), both have season bests under 16:10 (5k) and both of whom won their respective regional meets by wide margins.

However, it is worth noting that both athletes will have a not-so-favorable amount of travel and racing in their systems, both individuals competed at NXN this past Saturday.

Like I briefly mentioned, I could see Ellie Shea (MA), Zariel Macchia (NY) or Abby Faith Cheeseman all benefitting from a fast honest pace. All three athletes have shown the ability to run fast on a variety of courses and all three shouldn’t be counted out.

I would also put Ruth White into that conversation. The Boise State commit boasts a resume that is very clearly aerobic-centric and her strength would certainly give her a better chance of a top finish than anything tactical.

Now, if i’m an athlete or a coach of any of these athletes, the one person who I need to avoid is keeping Notre Dame commit, Nicki Southerland, around until the last quarter mile. She easily has best top-end speed of any athlete at this meet and I see her being the biggest benefactor of a slower more tactical pace.

You could also throw Claire Stegall (TN) into that conversation given her excellent 2:09 (800) and 4:39 (mile) marks from the oval. That is also some lethal speed that I would not want to play around with at the end of a race.

I am absolutely dieing to see how Elizabeth Leachman (TX) runs during Saturday’s race.

Up until this point, we saw Leachman take every race for the gun and it seemingly worked. Leachman went undefeated and averaged 16:23 (5k) for her first six races of the year.

Last weekend at NXN, it looked to be more of the same. Leachman took control of the race roughly a quarter mile in and would eventually create a gap that looked to be as large as 100 meters. Then she faded hard, was caught around the two-mile mark and would end up fading to 15th place.

So the question is, how does Leachman attack this race? She certainly has the ability to take home the individual title if she’s at her best. But do we see her change her race strategy and roll with the pack for longer than normal? Or do we see her use her same strategy and just hope that NXN was a fluke?

I don’t know how she’ll run, but I know that I’ll be watching and excited ether way.

My bold prediction is that the South region has at least five athletes finish in the top-10 come Saturday.

I just think that the South region is truly that stacked. We know the talent that Elizabeth Leachman possesses, Abby Faith Cheeseman is a 16:44 (5k) runner with only one loss on the reason (to Leachman), Allie Zealand has run 16:34 (5k) and just picked up her second All-American honor on the grass and the Reese Dalton / Maddie Gardiner duo are arguably the fastest duo in the country.

This is all without mentioning Claire Stegall, Mary Bonner Dalton and Samantha Humphries. I can confidently say that AT LEAST one of those three athletes will pull off a top-10 finish.

When you look at the full lineup from the South region, you begin to realize that this may not be that bold of a prediction.

Individuals

Individuals