TSR Collaboration
Dec 20, 202214 min
Updated: Dec 21, 2022
Written by Maura Beattie, Scotty Loughlin & Garrett Zatlin
Click here to read Part One as well as our Just Missed & Honorable Mention names.
Listed eligibility takes redshirts and Covid-related extensions into consideration.
TFRRS is used as a general guide when determining eligibility.
Big things are expected for Olivia Markezich on the indoor oval this year.
Last year, Markezich ran a respectable mark of 9:08 in the 3k, but was unable to qualify for the NCAA Indoor Championships in an open event. Her sole competition on the national stage came via Notre Dame’s DMR.
However, since March of 2022, Markezich has taken a step up across every area of her fitness. On the outdoor oval, she ran 9:35 in the steeplechase, ever-so-slightly missing out on All-American honors. Then, on the grass this past fall, we saw Markezich’s stock rise even higher as she consistently dominated the competition around her, eventually capping off her incredible fall season with an 8th place finish at the national meet.
That combination of track prowess and improved cross country fitness suggest that Markezich will most assuredly pop off on the indoor track as well.
And the exciting thing is...she already has!
By storming around the Boston University track in a time of 8:50 (3k) earlier this December, Markezich now has an elite-level time that is essentially a lock for her to qualify for the 2023 indoor national meet.
By dropping such a massive time this early in the season, and nearly snagging a win over Ceili McCabe, this Notre Dame product now has the time and flexibility to focus on building her fitness throughout the rest of this season while extending her range in other events.
By trusting in Coach Matt Sparks’ training to help her peak in the postseason -- something that he has done quite well as of late -- it's realistic to think that Markezich may be the 2023 version of last year's Lauren Ryan: Versatile, explosive and a flat-out problem.
Range.
That’s all there is to it.
NC State’s Samantha Bush has some serious and unmatched versatility, giving her a tremendous amount of value in a series of rankings which evaluate someone's entire resume.
800?
Mile?
3k?
5k?
All of those are events that Bush has proven to be nationally competitive in when looking at her resume. And even though she will probably opt to focus on the longer distances and potentially the distance medley relay this winter, this Wolfpack ace has speed that will come in handy when it comes to tactical scenarios on the national stage.
The current junior, who consistently finds herself among the race leaders, is no stranger to recording national-caliber times. Bush’s 8:54 (3k) and 15:35 (5k) personal bests showcase her endurance while her 2:04 (800) and 4:13 (1500) present an unprecedented level of speed for someone with her kind of resume.
NC State has a good one in Bush when you need to find someone who can run well across the board. She's probably the most dynamic distance talent in this portion of our rankings and she hasn't truly had a poor effort over the last year.
Bush, an already accomplished athlete, is a multi-time All-American across both cross country and track. But now, it'll be interesting to see if she can take that next step from "top-tier star" to "true national elite".
Although Hilda Olemomoi lacks the experience that many of her competitors who have been entrenched in the D1 scene longer than her, she has yet to have a bad race during her time with Alabama. She has does nothing but impress us with every opportunity that she gets.
If there was any wonder if Olemomoi was "only" a cross country specialist and may not be able to translate her breakout season to the indoor oval, those hesitations were quickly quelled by her jaw-dropping 15:17 (5k) mark at Boston University earlier this month.
The only collegian to defeat the Crimson Tide star in that race was Katelyn Tuohy, and the margin was not large by any means.
For now, we land at TSR #11 for Olemomoi. She's still extremely young, relatively inexperienced at this level and has not yet shown us how she handles tactical scenarios. There's simply no way of knowing how she'll translate her raw fitness to more nuanced and strategic battles on championship stages.
None of that is necessarily her fault -- we just want to see what she does in a variety of different settings.
Another possibility is that Olemomoi has range that we don’t even know about yet (until she competes in other events like the mile and the 3k). And by March, we may be looking at her preseason ranking as too low when we approach the indoor national meet.
It was incredibly challenging to rank Ceili McCabe.
No one, either at TSR or as a reader, is going to suggest that McCabe isn't one of the most talented distance runners in the nation. She just ran a jaw-dropping time of 8:50 over 3000 meters to take home the win at Boston University over an absolutely loaded collegiate field.
And the way that she won that race is probably what excites us the most about McCabe.
However, compared to a few other women in this portion of our rankings, this Canadian distance runner is truthfully a bit one-dimensional. Despite her 3k success, she has never contested the 5000 meters on the indoor or outdoor ovals. Her mile PR of 4:38.99, while solid, doesn't necessarily stand out, either.
Yes, McCabe is a superstar in the steeplechase, owning a PR of 9:31 in the event. But these are indoor track rankings. And when you look at her performance from the 2022 NCAA Indoor Championships, an 8th place All-American finish in the 3k doesn't do a whole lot to boost her stock.
McCabe's overall resume admittedly makes it hard to rank her much higher than this, especially after a tough ending to her 2022 cross country season. But when you look at the women listed behind her, how many of them can you realistically say are better than this West Virginia star?
We expect McCabe to an absolute beast on the indoor oval and establish far greater event diversity than she has over the last few seasons. And if those potential mile and 5k efforts are anything like her recent 3k race, then her ranking could climb into the top-five.
Oklahoma State's Gabija Galvydyte may be on the cusp of something incredibly special after a spectacular 2022 outdoor track season, a pleasantly surprising 2022 cross country season (for a middle distance specialist) and a head-turning start to the 2023 indoor track season.
This Cowgirl ace is still trying to establish herself on the national stage after a few big performances on the track. And yet, at the same time, her resume holds far greater value than some may realize. In a year where the long distance stars appear to hold a tremendous amount of influence, it's Galvydyte's middle distance presence that helps her stand out.
Her 2:01 (800) PR and 3rd place finish from the 2022 outdoor national meet are two very strong starting points for Galvydyte heading into this season. She is the top returner in the half-mile event from the spring months.
Galvydyte developed some extra endurance this past fall on the grass, racing well on hilly courses at the 6k length, much longer than her usual 800 meter distance. And following her successful fall season, the junior, contesting the first mile of her career, debuted with a huge time of 4:32 to tie for the win at Boston University!
Not too shabby, huh?
With the calendar about to turn, this Cowgirl standout will be one to watch out for on the indoor oval. There isn't a single middle distance runner in the NCAA right now who has a better combination of 800 meter and mile marks than Galvydyte (at least not in the open events). And when you tack on her bronze medal from last spring, it's hard to find any arguments against her.
Kelsey Chmiel of NC State may live in the shadows of her teammate Katelyn Tuohy on occasion, but she deserves her own spotlight as well.
Despite being known for her aerobic-centric strength, Chmiel actually has some sneaky-good range for a long distance specialist. Her 4:36 mile speed pairs well with her 8:59 (3k) and 15:27 (5k) personal bests, theoretically giving her a level of turnover that certain women like Mercy Chelangat haven't always shown.
The Wolfpack veteran, who is an extremely accomplished and experienced athlete, had her best track season last winter, running personal bests left and right. All of her success during the regular season resulted in a 5th place finish in the 5k and a 7th place finish in the 3k at the NCAA Indoor Championships, finishing not too far off from the leaders in both races.
Chmiel is also coming off of a cross country season that saw her consistently finish among the top-two leading up to the NCAA XC Championships. The Wolfpack star runner paced herself on a tough Oklahoma State course and left the national meet with a 3rd place finish in a deep field.
Her confidence has to be riding high since that race and she proved that by matching her 15:27 (5k) PR at the Boston University Season Opener. And truthfully, we think she could have been even better!
Experience will be on Chmiel’s side this winter and rightfully so given her resume and consistency on the national stage. She is one of the most reliable distance talents in the NCAA right now and it's hard to find too many scenarios where she has put together a poor race.
If these were outdoor track rankings, then Mercy Chelangat would likely be ranked higher. Maybe not much higher than TSR #4 or TSR #5, but the introduction of the 10k as a championship race would certainly give her a boost.
This Alabama veteran is one of the three-most experienced distance running women in the NCAA right now. For the most part, she never has a poor race and even if she's not firing on all cylinders, she's still finishing 16th overall at the NCAA XC Championships.
On the indoor oval, Chelangat is at her best in the 5000 meters and has also proven to be nationally competitive in the 3000 meters. Her recent indoor 5k mark of 15:18 from Boston University was only one second off of her outdoor PR and she also owns an 8:53 (3k) personal best from last winter.
And on championship stages, Chelangat is unafraid to go to the front in an attempt to have the race unfold in her favor. While that method may not have always produced national titles, it has led to this Crimson Tide star earning numerous top-five All-American finishes.
Chelangat, for as accomplished and as experienced as she is, doesn't seem to have the same turnover that some of her national-caliber competitors do. Admittedly, this has limited her tactical options in championships settings which often become surge-based and require unpredictable injections of speed.
But as far as being a reliable and consistent All-American who is capable of running the fastest times in the country, Chelangat more than deserves this TSR #7 ranking.
At first glance, this ranking may seem high for Lauren Gregory.
The Arkansas veteran didn't have any cross country eligibility this past fall and she just ran 15:34 for 5000 meters -- a solid and competitive time, but nothing that caught our attention in any dramatic way.
However, Gregory has a resume that is easily the most complete of any true long distance runner in the NCAA today.
Throughout the entirety of her career, she has been the most consistent runner in the nation. She has metronomically delivered All-American results, has contended with (and defeated) the best women in the country and has run some of the fastest times in the NCAA across a variety of disciplines.
And maybe most importantly, there is simply no woman in the country who is more experienced than she is.
With personal bests of 2:44 (1k), 4:09 (1500), 4:32 (mile), 8:53 (3k), 15:25 (5k) and 32:34 (10k), not even Katelyn Tuohy has a resume more diverse than Gregory's. And with seven All-American honors across three seasons of competition, the value that this Razorback veteran holds in our rankings is crazy high.
Sure, Gregory isn't a perfect runner. She has been viewed in the past as a national title favorite, but has never won gold. Sometimes, her best performances come before her season finales. But at the end of the day, no one in the NCAA has the history or the resume that Gregory does.
And for that reason, she is listed at TSR #6.
This is another name who may feel a bit high in our rankings when you're combing through our list of names. But there are a handful of good reasons why this BYU veteran sits at TSR #5 entering the winter months.
The women's middle distances, compared to the longer distances, simply needed a great presence in the top-10 portion of our preseason rankings. After all, we wanted to avoid any bias that we may have had from the cross country season.
And although the women's 800 meters this year is loaded with upper-echelon talents, none of the top contenders in the event are totally perfect.
Juliette Whittaker and Roisin Willis ran 1:59 this past spring, but their indoor 800 meter marks are (roughly) on par with the other top women in the NCAA and they are still inexperienced freshmen.
Sarah Hendrick shared the NCAA lead in the 800 meters last spring with Katy-Ann McDonald, but has not been able to fully translate her raw talent to the tactics of a championship race.
Katy-Ann McDonald and Imogen Barrett proved to be incredible in both the 800 meters and the 1500 meters last spring, but neither of those women made the 800 meter finals last winter at the NCAA Indoor Championships.
Valery Tobias has proven to be a very clutch postseason runner in the 800 meters, but she doesn't have the same top-end talent that Seymour has shown.
Carley Thomas was excellent last spring, but she's still not at the same level that she was at in the winter of 2020 and we don't entirely know what to expect from her this season.
Gabija Galvydyte looks like she could be a legitimate threat in the 800 meters this winter. However, given her recent success in the mile and that event looking so wide-open this year, it would seemingly make more sense for this national meet bronze medalist to move up in distance for the 2023 indoor national meet.
Those are all fantastic names, but Claire Seymour feels like the most complete half-mile talent in the country right now...other than Lindsey Butler.
The BYU veteran was 5th in the 800 meters at the 2021 NCAA Indoor Championships, placed 4th in the 800 meters at the 2021 NCAA Outdoor Championships and finished runner-up at the 2022 NCAA Indoor Championships. In that latter race, Seymour posted a time of 2:01.96 and looked like the only legitimate threat to Butler in the finals.
With multiple instances of going under 2:02 for 800 meters and the ability to improve upon her national meet placement over the course of a year, Seymour brings a level of underappreciated half-mile prowess to our rankings.
Yes, it's true, Seymour didn't advance to the finals at last year's outdoor national meet, but for the most part, she has done everything with essentially zero mistakes.
And for that reason, she will sit at TSR #5.
When we talk about "value" in the context of these rankings, what do we mean by that?
Well, it's hard to explain, but we would suggest looking at women such as Lauren Gregory, Samantha Bush and better yet, Taylor Roe, as examples.
First off, Roe is incredibly dynamic. The Oklahoma State star boasts exceptional range, owning personal bests of 4:13.99 (1500), 4:33 (mile), 8:58 (3k) and 15:21 (5k). Sure, she may not have the same 800 meter prowess as Bush or the same 10k experience as Gregory, but her times are (usually) comparatively better.
Not only that, but Roe showcased some of the best tactical execution of anyone in the country last winter. She perfectly gauged a mile battle with Gregory last winter to secure a marquee win and then stunned the country with a flawlessly-timed surge in the women's 3k to win the indoor national title.
And when it comes to raw fitness, few women are better than Roe. At last year's outdoor national meet, she finished 3rd place overall in the women's 5k, losing only to Tuohy and Valby while barely edging Chelangat for bronze in the process.
Roe owns multiple All-American honors, has excellent experience against the nation's premiere distance talents, is one of the best tacticians in the NCAA, holds a national title, often flexes strong range and boasts flat-out fast times.
That, ladies and gentlemen, is why we see Roe as a high-value distance talent.
Virginia Tech’s Lindsey Butler is the reigning indoor 800 meter champion from the 2022 indoor national meet. And after missing the outdoor track season due to an injury, she’s surely ready to prove why her championship win wasn’t a one-and-done deal.
The Hokie talent was a pleasant surprise last winter. Yes, she had already run 2:01 in the 800 meters during the 2021 outdoor season, but when she posted that time again to win the 2022 ACC indoor title, we knew that she was on the verge of an incredible season finale.
But that 800 meter victory wasn’t the only place where Butler was impressing us. Her 4:29 (1600) split in the DMR at the ACC Indoor Championships also raised her stock in a way that her other performances simply never did.
And after winning gold last March, Butler was ultimately voted as Division One's "Most Valuable Runner" for the 2022 indoor track season by The Stride Report's contributing staff.
Butler could also dabble in the open mile this indoor season and catch a few people off guard, an event that feels completely wide-open this year. And if she does, then there’s no telling what damage she could do on the national stage.
There's an argument to be had that Butler deserves to be ranked at TSR #2. And truthfully, we probably wouldn't argue with anyone who thinks that. After all, our site editor is a Virginia Tech alum who certainly wanted Butler to be listed higher...
However, after having to sit out of the 2022 outdoor track season from an injury, we felt like it was maybe best to place Butler at TSR #3 just until she shows us what kind of fitness she is in this winter.
This ranking may be controversial, especially when you consider who is listed at TSR #3, so please allow us to make our case.
First, while Parker Valby has very limited indoor track experience, what we saw from last winter prior to her injury was flat-out scary. The Florida star posted an 8:53 mark over 3000 meters in a field where no one else ran under 9:10.
That’s right, Valby ran 8:53 in a completely solo effort without a pacer. And that mark stood as the sixth-fastest time that anyone ran in that event throughout the entire season.
Secondly, from a tactical and competitive perspective, it’s extremely rare to see Valby lose. In fact, over the last calendar year, Valby has only lost to two women (excluding the NCAA Outdoor East Regional Championships) -- Mercy Chelangat and Katelyn Tuohy -- both of whom have won national titles within the last 12 months.
Last, and perhaps most importantly, the Gator superstar has been running better than she ever has before, at least as of late. After a tremendous cross country campaign where she legitimately contended for a national title and obliterated her opponents during the regular season, Valby will likely look to the 3k and 5k for opportunities at redemption.
And let's not forget, she ran 15:20 (5k) last spring and proved to be the only legitimate contender to Katelyn Tuohy despite injuries interrupting her winter training. Given how highly we view Tuohy, we think anyone who is able to be such a massive threat to that NC State star deserves a favorable ranking.
Along the way, there’s also a very real possibility that she breaks the NCAA record in the 5k this season. That is, of course, unless our TSR #1 runner takes that crown for herself.
Win an outdoor national title? Check.
Win a cross country national title? Check.
Win an indoor title? To be decided.
This third-year NC State sophomore is a force to be reckoned with and is one of the greatest racing tacticians around. And truthfully, even if she wasn't a great tactician, it probably wouldn't matter. In terms of fitness, she's just better than everyone else.
Tuohy just missed out on an indoor national title last winter in both the 3k and the 5k, just running out of real estate on the national stage...but that shouldn’t be the case this time around.
Thanks to her 4:06 personal best over 1500 meters, Tuohy is on a different level than her competitors and is prepared to run down anyone. It may not matter what kind of tactical approach her competitors try to employ, this NC State star seemingly has an answer for everything,
The Wolfpack ace has what it takes to win an indoor title, or two, but she could also challenge the indoor 5k collegiate record of 15:12 held by Providence’s Emily Sisson from 2015. If she can take that time down, how close to sub-15:00 could Tuohy get?
Although, at the same time, her best chance of breaking the collegiate record in the indoor 5k was probably at the Boston University Season Opener earlier this month when she ran 15:15.
Tuohy will have her work cut out for her this indoor season, but that doesn’t seem to scare the Wolfpack star. The competition is fierce, but Tuohy knows what tools to pull out when the time is right. Her turnover, her endurance and her momentum is currently unmatched in the NCAA.