TSR Collaboration
Dec 21, 202213 min
Written by Garrett Zatlin, Ben Weisel & Gavin Struve
Click here to read Part One as well as our Just Missed & Honorable Mention names.
Listed eligibility takes redshirts and Covid-related extensions into consideration.
TFRRS is used as a general, but not strict, guide when determining eligibility.
In a lot of our rankings, we have spoken about athletes with tactical brilliance who are able to execute at the highest levels of championship racing.
And on the men's side, fewer men are better in-race strategists than Isaac Basten.
An increasingly rare mile specialist, this Drake star will likely put all of his eggs in one basket yet again this winter as he aims to come away with his first top-half All-American performance after a couple of close calls in recent years.
Basten has the speed, raw talent and experience to put himself among the nation’s elites. Yes, a handful of men are capable of matching his personal bests of 3:39 in the 1500 meters and 3:56 in the mile, but few can deliver in the postseason like he has.
In fact, even fewer men have the patience and finishing kick that this midwest star does. The Drake ace will often hang towards the back of his races and slowly move up, timing his closing efforts almost perfectly.
Basten finished 5th in the mile at last year's indoor national meet, making him the top returner in the event for the winter of 2023. And although his overly ambitious move at the outdoor national meet forced him to fade to 10th place, that decision was a rare tactical miscue in an otherwise excellent 2022 campaign on the track.
If it all comes together for Basten over the next three months, then this fiery runner should be taken seriously as a title contender.
Yusuf Bizimana is yet another transatlantic transplant who found collegiate success in short order. In fact, he’s one of the better pure middle distance runners in the NCAA right now.
Formerly a young phenom in the UK, Bizimana has ventured to Austin, Texas and has since posted times of 1:46 in the 800 meters as well as a sneaky-strong 3:57 mile PR.
Not only that, but Bizimana has actually proven himself to be at his best during the indoor track season. Whichever distance he contests, and it'll likely be the half-mile, the Longhorn ace has strong odds of earning a top-three performance on the national stage if he comes close to the fitness level that he was at for past NCAA Championships.
Let's also not forget, this is a guy who was 4th at the indoor national meet last year in the 800 meters. He also finished 9th at last year's outdoor national meet, finished 7th at the 2021 NCAA Outdoor Championships and finished 8th at the 2021 NCAA Indoor Championships, the latter of which came in the mile.
Bizimana is an All-American machine and easily one of the most consistent upper-tier middle distance talents in the NCAA right now. There are still questions about how he'll reach that next level of 800 meter contenders, but it's hard to deny the value that he brings to the Texas men.
Which one do you value more? Recent performances or historical results?
That is the question that we had to ask ourselves when ranking Fouad Messaoudi.
Very few men in the country are on the same hot streak as this Oklahoma State runner. The Moroccan distance star shockingly placed 12th at the most recent NCAA XC Championships and then followed that up with a win in the 3000 meters at Boston University in an eye-popping personal best of 7:44.
While Messaoudi did hold his own quite well last winter (running 7:50 in the 3k and 3:58 in the mile), no one expected him to throw down these last two results.
So where does this put him going into the 2023 indoor track season?
7:44 is a very fast time, but last year proved that a sub-7:45 mark does not at all guarantee an All-American finish at the NCAA Indoor Championships. To justify this ranking, Messaoudi will simply need to maintain his impressive upwards trajectory. Not necessarily in just the 3000 meters, but throughout the entirety of his resume.
Perhaps he takes advantage of a weaker mile field (nationally) and drops down to that distance. Maybe he takes advantage of his cross country fitness and moves up to the 5k.
But regardless of what he does, Messaoudi has crazy-strong momentum going right now. He has shown signs that his tactical acumen is now far more refined and his history of excellent range should pair beautifully with his improved fitness.
Based on the last few weeks, we're not inclined to bet against this Cowboy star this winter.
No one has benefited more from the "gas, gas, gas" mentality of Coach Mike Smith and Northern Arizona over the last month more than Drew Bosley.
Pushing the pace at the NCAA XC Championships and then in the 5k at Boston University, the Lumberjack star has had the best two races of his career in back-to-back efforts. The Wisconsin native finished as the third-best collegiate at Boston University earlier this month behind only Ky Robinson and Alex Maier and ahead of teammate Nico Young.
And yet, despite all of that, he is ranked several spots below those three men.
So why is that?
While his recent 13:13 PR is a significant improvement from his 13:26 mark from last winter (and his former 13:25 PR from last spring), Bosley only finished 8th at the NCAA Indoor Championships last year and failed to qualify for the NCAA Outdoor Championships.
Much like Fouad Messaoudi, Bosley has to prove that his improved fitness can translate to top results on a championship stage. He has clearly demonstrated that he can execute at the highest levels on the grass, but can he make that same step on the always-more tactical oval?
In a year without a clear-cut favorite in the 5k, and a teammate in Nico Young who likes to push the pace, the stage is set for a breakout indoor track season for Bosley that could be even more grand than what we saw from him this past fall.
Could Dylan Jacobs win another national title on the track this year?
In our eyes, yes. He absolutely could.
But it would potentially be wiser to appreciate him for what he is right now -- a perennial podium contender.
It seems like a near certainty that we can pencil Jacobs in for his fifth All-American finish this winter, even if he has yet to earn that honor on the indoor oval. After all, this is a guy who ran 13:14 (5k) in a loaded professional field nearly a year ago.
Not only that, but Jacobs has flexed promising versatility, running 3:57 in the mile, 7:49 in the 3000 meters and 28:01 in the 10,000 meters. The best part is that he can probably run faster in those first two events this winter!
Jacobs clearly has the tactical acumen to win NCAA gold. He obviously did exactly that in the 10k last spring. But can he do it again? This time in an event that is either half that distance or even 30% of that distance?
Time will tell, but the value on the resume of this Volunteer star may have an argument to place Jacobs even higher in these rankings.
A member of the "most versatile distance talents in the NCAA" club, it’s entirely possible that Brian Fay translates his cross country improvement from this past fall into something even more eye-opening on the indoor oval.
To say that Fay broke onto the scene last winter with his 3:55 (mile) and 13:24 (5k) marks would be an understatement. His lethal combination of turnover and endurance made him one of the most complete and most dangerous distance talents that the NCAA had to offer.
Fay has more than backed up those results in the time since, even if he hasn’t delivered on his fringe title contender possibilities.
The Irish distance star ran 13:16 for 5000 meters on the outdoor oval and earned two 5k All-American honors in one calendar year. Now, he’s off to an even hotter start this season, nearly matching his PR with a 13:16 debut at Boston University.
There are admittedly greater expectations on Fay's shoulders than last year. We now know what he's capable of and how dangerous he can be in most race situations. However, in order to deliver on his national title potential, this Husky star will need to put himself near (or around) the leaders in the final moments of his national meet races.
If he does that, then there's a very good chance that he'll walk away with NCAA gold.
Arguably the most talented distance runner in the country, Eliud Kipsang's last few times out on the grass and the track have not been a great reflection of his enormous ability.
The Crimson Tide superstar started last indoor track season comparatively slowly to his NCAA counterparts, but eventually ran 3:54 in the mile. But despite the great expectations placed upon his shoulders, this Kenyan juggernaut would finish 4th at the SEC Indoor Championships and 8th at the NCAA Indoor Championships, both in the mile.
However, it was the outdoor track season when Kipsang really hit his stride, setting an NCAA record in the 1500 meters with an almost-unreal time of 3:33. He also ran 1:47 for 800 meters which was still behind his 1:46 personal best.
And yet, Kipsang was unable to make it out of the preliminary round of the 1500 meters at the NCAA Outdoor Championships.
Is this becoming a theme?
As long as he is healthy, Kipsang can run faster than anyone in the country in the mile. In fact, it wouldn’t be stunning to see him scare the 3:50 mark this year. But his fitness has never been the cause for concern. Instead, the question is: How can he translate that raw time-trial ability to a top-three finish at an NCAA Championship like we saw in the winter of 2021?
Over the last year, he has not been able to do that, although his 4th place finish in the 1500 meters at the 2021 NCAA Outdoor Championships and his runner-up result in the mile at the 2021 NCAA Indoor Championships are two results that deserve your respect.
And truthfully, when it comes to raw fitness, he might simply be so much better than the rest of the country this year that he could pull a Wesley Kiptoo and simply outrun his competition for NCAA gold.
Regardless of what he does this fall, Kipsang will be one the most fascinating runners to watch all season long.
The reigning NCAA cross country champion followed up his win in Stillwater, Oklahoma by winning the U23 European XC Championships in Turin, Italy earlier this month. As a result, no younger distance talent in the world has been better than Hicks was on the grass this year.
So how is he listed at "only" TSR #6 in our rankings?
Well, despite all of his success on the grass over the last couple of months, Hicks hasn’t built quite the same resume on the track.Of course, that is not to say that this Stanford ace has been bad on the oval.
Hicks placed 6th in the 10k at the NCAA Outdoor Championships last spring and settled for a 3rd place result in the 3k at the NCAA Indoor Championships last winter.
That 3rd place performance in the 3000 meters was/is very promising, mainly because it suggests that he will be a national-caliber threat in two events this season. He does, after all, own a 7:43 personal best from last year.
The 5k, however, is where Hicks will likely have his best chance at winning an NCAA title on the indoor oval. Like we mentioned with Drew Bosley, it would be shocking if the 5k is not a fast race like it was last year. And in theory, that kind of scenario should play into Hicks' favor as he has consistently shown the ability to kick regardless of the aggressive pacing that he's been involved with.
Can he follow in the footsteps of Edward Cheserek, Justyn Knight and Morgan McDonald by backing up his cross country title with an indoor title? He'll certainly need to clean up his regular season performances from last winter (which were admittedly not great), but if he peaks in the postseason yet again, then the regular season may not matter.
Gosh, what a challenging name to rank.
This Texas superstar is one of the nation's absolute best talents in two events: the 400 meters and the 800 meters.
Last winter, he ran 1:46 in the half-mile event and finished runner-up at that distance at the NCAA Indoor Championships. Then, in the spring, Jones ran 1:45 to defeat Moad Zahafi at the Texas Relays. But Jones wouldn't toe the line for the 800 meters for the rest of the season, instead focusing on the 400 meters. In that event, Jones ran 44.43 and finished 4th at the outdoor national meet.
Jones could absolutely win the 800 meter national title this winter, but there's also no guarantee that he'll even attack that event on the national stage.
Even so, after taking down Moad Zahafi early last spring and earning silver at last year's indoor national meet, Jones seems like one of the most dangerous middle distance runners in the country. And in a lot of scenarios, he's just flat-out better than his fellow 800 meter competitors.
The Alex Maier that you saw at the end of the 2022 indoor track season is not the same guy that you have seen toe the line since.
This Oklahoma State ace had a big breakout year on the indoor oval last winter, running exceptional times of 3:56 (mile), 7:46 (3k) and 13:25 (5k). On paper, it was a pleasantly surprising display of upper-tier range.
However, Maier couldn't translate that success to the NCAA Indoor Championships as he finished last in the 5000 meters. But since then, this Cowboy veteran has looked like a different (and better) runner.
Maier went on to run 13:26 (5k) and 28:12 (10k) in the spring, the latter mark coming at the outdoor national meet where he came close to catching Dylan Jacobs for the national title. Instead, Maier settled for silver.
And on the grass, Maier was arguably even better. He won the Cowboy Jamboree, became the BIG 12 champion and finished 5th on the national stage. And after running 13:11 for 5000 meters at Boston University earlier this month, Maier has now firmly established himself as a true NCAA elite.
Maier sits this high in our rankings for a multitude of reasons. His versatility is sneaky-good, he has clearly improved since last winter, he hasn't had a poor race since the 2022 indoor national meet, he has had multiple instances of high-level success on the national stage and his recent 5k effort suggests that he's capable of winning a national title.
Let us know if you can find something to critique on Maier's resume.
We're not sure if there is a flaw to be found.
Last spring was the season of Navasky Andreson. No one had a greater breakout outdoor track campaign than this Mississippi State did as he rose to national prominence.
The Jamaican middle distance star progressively got better and better throughout last year. He was the top collegiate in his heat at the Tom Jones Memorial meet in a time of 1:46. He later ventured to the SEC Outdoor Championships where he won the conference title in a time of 1:45. Then, on the national stage, Anderson kept things competitive with Zahafi and Miller, ultimately running a personal best of 1:45.02 to narrowly finish runner-up.
With Zahafi now gone and Brandon Miller opting to turn pro, Anderson is the somewhat clear favorite to win the 800 meter national title this winter. Throughout last spring, it was incredibly obvious that only Miller and Zahafi could realistically challenge Anderson.
And with both of those men gone, it may be this Bulldog veteran's turn to win NCAA gold.
Admittedly, Anderson could find himself fading from the title favorite status later this season if Jonathan Jones attacks the 800 meters like he did last year. We also have no idea how Anderson will translate his success from the spring to the indoor oval. For the most part, his 2022 indoor track campaign was borderline nonexistent.
But few men look more powerful on the final straightaway of a championship 800 meter race than Anderson does. And with a valuable year of experience at the highest levels of the NCAA, everything about this resume suggests that he can win it all come March.
If Eliud Kipsang isn't the most naturally talented distance runner in the NCAA, then Nico Young most certainly is. Ever since leaving behind a historically great high school career and joining the Northern Arizona men, Young has evolved into one of the most iconic collegiate distance runners of this era.
The level of raw talent and fitness that this Lumberjack star brings to the table is almost otherworldly. Young posted a 3:54 altitude converted mile mark as well as a 7:41.97 altitude converted and flat-track converted 3k mark last winter. He also ran 13:11 for 5000 meters last spring. Those times, on paper, usually put someone in the national title favorite conversation.
However, the one thing that has eluded Young over the last two years is exactly that, a national title. But even as I type that, it seems almost unfair to attach that narrative to someone as accomplished as him. This is, after all, someone who didn't start racing in the NCAA until February of 2021.
Even so, over the past year, Young has found himself in scenarios where he was viewed as a potential national title favorite, but couldn't deliver.
At the 2022 NCAA Indoor Championships, he finished 3rd in the 5000 meters and 7th in the 3000 meters (despite tripping halfway through that latter race).
At the 2022 NCAA Outdoor Championships, Young simply expended too much energy trying to respond to certain moves in the 5000 meters. As a result, he faded to 3rd on the final straightaway.
The 2022 NCAA XC Championships felt like Young's best chance yet to win a national title, but Charles Hicks simply got the better of him at the end of the race.
No one is questioning Nico Young's abilities. Like we saw, he is easily one of the most naturally talented distance runners in the NCAA right now. Maybe even the most naturally talented distance runner.
But Young clearly favors time trial settings that are fast from the gun which are simply a test of one's aerobic fitness. In more tactical races, Young doesn't seem to respond as well to a sudden increase in pace in comparison to a few others.
And yet, despite all of that, listing Young outside of our top-three would have still felt criminal. For that reason, he now sits at TSR #2.
Is it fair to say that Ky Robinson is the Charles Hicks of the track?
Much like his superstar teammate, Robinson is arguably the most complete distance runner when it comes to the indoor and outdoor ovals, specifically in the 5k. He's patient, tactically brilliant, has phenomenal aerobic endurance and his finishing speed is good enough.
Robinson ran 13:11 (5k) earlier this month at Boston University, showcasing the patience of a mature veteran who never made any moves or surges that he didn't need to. He took down one of the best regular season collegiate 5k fields that I can ever remember and looked phenomenal while doing it.
After placing runner-up in the 5000 meters at last year's indoor national meet and then finishing 4th in the same event at the outdoor national meet, this Australian superstar has shown signs of being the best of the best.
And although he only finished 10th at the NCAA XC Championships, Robinson is still someone who won the Nuttycombe Invitational this past fall and ran 27:44 for 10,000 meters this past summer at the Commonwealth Games.
We'll admit, Robinson isn't always as dominant as we would like him to be and his resume, at least from an indoor track perspective, is heavily reliant on his 5k success. But after his phenomenal victory at Boston University, we feel confident in saying that Robinson is the most well-rounded 5k runner in the NCAA right now.