TSR Collaboration
Dec 23, 20238 min
Written by Conor Daly & Kevin Fischer, additional edits & commentary via Garrett Zatlin
Click here to see our Just Missed and Honorable Mention names.
Listed eligibility takes redshirts and Covid-related extensions into consideration.
TFRRS is used as a general, but not strict, guide when determining eligibility.
After competing at the Division Two level for two years, Ellie Rising emerged onto the Division Three scene in a big way last year. As soon as last winter, Rising found herself earning 4th place in the country over 800 meters at the indoor national meet.
The George Fox junior extended her success to the outdoor track season in which she, once again, was a prominent name. Other than the prelims of her conference meet, she didn’t run over 2:11 for the half-mile distance and she also matched her 2:10 (800) PR.
But wait there's more!
Late in the spring season, we saw Rising (somewhat surprisingly) step up to the 1500 meters where she ran a very strong 4:33 mark. If she can replicate that kind of effort on the indoor oval, then she could find herself qualifying for the national meet in the mile as well as (or in addition to) the 800 meters.
Overall, Rising is one of the more consistent, experienced and reliable middle distance runners in the nation. She has a tremendously high floor and is one of the safer names to choose when making pre-meet predictions. Plus, after running around the 2:10 to 2:11 throughout the entirety of last year, it feels fair to suggest that this George Fox standout is due for a big PR sometime in the near future.
This is a ranking that we could certainly look back on and say, “Dang, we placed Cyna Madigan too low.” This UW-Oshkosh talent has a very high ceiling, especially if she is in the form that she was in during her most recent outdoor track season.
This past outdoor track season, Madigan was on a tear, elevating nearly aspect of her racing prowess to a new level. On the way to a 3rd place All-American finish, she took down UW-La Crosse star Maddie Hannan at her conference meet, earning a major pre-national meet victory.
Madigan was also as consistent as can be, claiming three 2:10 performances and one 2:09 run over the half-mile distances. Outside of the prelims, the only Division Three women whom she fell to that season Maddie Hannan and Emma Kelley.
The only catch is that Madigan had never been at that level prior to last spring. Naturally, that leaves us questioning and cautious as to whether or not she can replicate that kind of success on the indoor oval. But so far, the early indications have been positive.
After racing twice so far this month, Madigan has sent us the message that we should leave no doubts about her fitness. She’s off to a red-hot start. Currently, she holds the national lead (in early December, we know) with converted marks of 2:12 (800) and 5:02 (mile), the latter of which is a PR.
We know we’ve talked about it a lot, but we’ll mention it one more time.
Riley Capuano’s performance at this year’s cross country national meet brought her to an entirely new level -- and it looks like this newfound success isn’t going anywhere.
Earlier this month, Capuano went to Boston U. to test her fitness over 3000 meters where she ran very well, posting a new 9:48 PR. That effort might not be enough to get her into the indoor national meet, but that result was still an important and significant step forward in the right direction.
And when you consider her resume as a whole, the 3k is likely not even her best event. As a true freshman last year, Capuano ran a 2:16 (800) mark and an even more impressive 4:35 (1500) mark, the latter of which very much puts her in the conversation to be nationally competitive in the mile this winter. And yet, after seeing the cross country season that she had, we can't help but wonder how much damage she could do in the 5k.
With newfound fitness over some of the longer distances, we have to imagine that Capuano’s mile abilities will only benefit her in whichever event(s) she focuses on. This untapped potential, when paired with her seemingly extensive range, very clearly makes this CMS standout a top-20 talent.
Last winter, Ella Ball had one of those seasons where she just couldn’t miss. She ran a PR in every race except for one. That one race was her 6th place finish in the 5k at the indoor national meet which came the day before finishing 8th in the 3k in a very quick mark of 9:36.
The Williams standout went on to have a very solid outdoor track season, but not one that was up to her indoor track standards. Ball ended up running 4:36 (1500) and 17:02 (5k), the latter of which was just seconds off of national qualification.
If we were to judge Ball based on her indoor track season last year, then she’d easily be a top-10 name. But as much as we wish we could overlook that spring campaign, it wouldn't be totally fair to everyone else. Her outdoor track season didn’t necessarily impress us, nor did her rocky cross country season this past fall.
Even so, we have very high hopes for her. We know that Ball is more than capable of being a top-tier name over a distance that is only half of what she was running this past fall. And unlike a few other women in these rankings, there's not much speculation as to how good this Williams ace can be. She's shown us before just how dangerous she is when she's clicking on all cylinders.
As early as her freshman year, Murphy found herself at the national meet finals of the mile and the 1500 meters. Coming into last year, she had placed 11th, 10th and 3rd in the nation over those distances, improving each chance she could.
But interestingly enough, Murphy didn’t even qualify for the national meet in the mile last winter. Instead, the Yellowjacket ace found herself as the second seed in the 800 meter field with a 2:09 (converted) mark. She took on the new challenge like a veteran to finish 6th.
On the outdoor oval, Murphy looked to be in top form. Entering the national meet with marks of 2:09 (800) and 4:28 (1500), we were incredibly high on this middle distance star. She was consistently racking up great performance after great performance and her resume was trending in a very positive direction going into the postseason.
But shockingly, the veteran was unable to advance to the finals (by a mere 0.10 seconds) over 1500 meters. The what-would-have-been fourth seed of the 800 meters had already decided to scratch the event and could not go back on her decision, ending her season early.
That latter development is not to take away from all of the positives on her resume. If anything, it's to show how much of a fluke that was. With a handful of All-American finishes on the track, top times, plenty of experience and an ability to be equally effective in two middle distance events, we may actually be undervaluing Murphy at TSR #16.
Carolyn Shult has been on the cusp of something big for a while now. In fact, we think that this is finally going to be the season that she erupts for a huge performance.
The midwest miler likely comes into this season with a chip on her shoulder. At the last three national meets on the track, Shult’s 1500/mile campaigns have ended in the prelims. But that doesn’t show the full story of how close she has been to cracking into finals. She was one, two and three spots away from making the finals in those efforts, all within a second of advancing.
It wasn’t until this past fall that Shult elevated herself to an upper-tier level that made us believe that she’s ready for a major breakthrough on the track. She was one of the best runners in the country week-in and week-out. Her fall season ultimately culminated with a well-deserved 5th place finish at the NCAA XC Championships.
Shult, of course, projects to be a national-level threat in the mile. But it’s her newfound success over 6k (on the grass) that improves Shult’s stock from a one-event talent to someone who could very well be an upper-echelon 3k and/or 5k talent as well.
This Johns Hopkins veteran is one of the more reliable names in Division Three. On the grass, she has placed 9th and 6th at the NCAAA XC Championships over the last two years. And in between those runs, Stephenson has gotten the job done on the oval.
Last winter, this Blue Jay veteran ran to a handful of sub-10 (3k) marks, including a blazing 9:35 (converted) effort. On the outdoor oval, Stephenson focused on the steeplechase, but also got a chance to produce us a sub-17 (5k) performance.
Oh, and she has a 5:00 mile credential to her name for good measure.
With nationally competitive marks in the 3k and 5k, along with a pair of top-10 finishes on the grass and tons of experience, Stephenson has both the fitness and racing know-how to be one of the best in the country on the track.
And of course, those top-tier capabilities don’t cap out at only one event, although if history tells us anything, it's that Stephenson will likely focus her efforts on the 3k. But truthfully, we think she could be just as good in the 5k.
Grace Richardson should be full of confidence coming into this winter. After finishing in the top-10 at the cross country national meet, she opened her indoor track season with an outstanding personal best of 16:44 over 5000 meters.
Admittedly, Richardson's championship history on the track is not all that extensive. The only time that she made it to the "Big Dance" was at last year's indoor national meet where she finished an underwhelming 19th place in the 5000 meters.
However, the two-time cross country All-American is in a much better position to change her luck this year. With a stronger base and a clear improvement in her fitness, she will be a force to be reckoned with throughout this upcoming season.
Like several others in these rankings, Caroline McMartin went after a fast 5000-meter mark to open the 2023-24 indoor track season. But rather than toe the line at Boston University, she stayed in-state, winning the Frigid Bee Opener with a very strong converted 16:51 (5k) mark.
Despite being a four-time All-American, this Central College standout has never earned that honor in an individual track event without barriers. But after a fantastic cross country season that saw her finish 12th at the national meet, along with a more-than-solid season opener, it feels like this the year that she does it.
Remember, McMartin has a 4:32 (1500) PR and a very underrated understanding of how to respond to certain moves from her competition. In theory, she should fare well in whatever 3k or 5k race scenario that she sees this winter.
After earning her first All-American honor with a 6th place in the 5000 meters at last year's outdoor national meet, Grace Hadley showed us that she was just as lethal on the grass with an outstanding cross country season that ended with a 4th place national meet finish.
And no, that wasn't a fluke. That effort was an accurate reflection of her fall campaign.
Following that, the WPI standout then took advantage of her fitness to go after a fast 5000-meter result at Boston University earlier this month. And after going through 3000 meters in 9:49, she faded a touch, but still came away with a very nice personal best of 16:44.
However, one of the more underrated aspects of Hadley's resume is that she also has some respectable speed, having run 2:15 (800), and 4:30 (1500) last spring. From the mile up, she will be one of the more dangerous names in the country this winter, especially if she is able to carry this unreal upside into February and March.
Gillian Roeder (MIT)
Kirsi Rajagopal (MIT)
Penelope Greene (SUNY Geneseo)
Rachel Hirschkind (SUNY Geneseo)
Hannah Preisser (Carleton)
Megan Johnson (Central College)
Audrey Maclean (Middlebury)
Vivian Kane (NYU)
Lexi Fernandez (MIT)
Julia Howarth (MIT)
Shaelyn Hostager (Wartburg)
Kate Sanderson (MIT)
Molly FitzGibbons (Williams)
Riley Buese (Lewis & Clark)
Morgan Uhlhorn (NYU)
Amelia Lehman (UW-Oshkosh)
Caitlin Jorgensen (U. of Chicago)
Ella Webster (Wittenburg)
Chrissy Aman (Bates)
Sarah Conant (Johns Hopkins)
Lauren Iagnemma (Case Western)
Elizabeth Csikai (Emory)
Allison Sibold (St. Lawrence)
Mckayla Felton (UW-Stout)
Elle Marsyla (Claremont-Mudd-Scripps)
Deyanneira Colon Maldonado (Aurora)
Rebecca Markham (Hope)
Ellie Meyer (Wartburg)
Rachel Krouse (UW-Stevens Point)
Kayla Werner (Lynchburg)
Helen Cross (Carleton)
Lucy Gagnon (Williams)
Jenna Allman (Calvin)
Claire Anderson (Washington & Jefferson)
Cat Wimmer (U. of Chicago)
Alessia Sarussi (Washington U.)
Sierra Doody (SUNY Geneseo)
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