TSR Collaboration
Dec 21, 202311 min
Written by Maura Beattie, Finn Birnie & Garrett Zatlin, edits via Garrett Zatlin
Click here to see our Just Missed and Honorable Mention names.
Click here to see Part One (names #25 through #13)
Listed eligibility takes redshirts and Covid-related extensions into consideration.
TFRRS is used as a general, but not strict, guide when determining eligibility.
While at Illinois, Olivia Howell thrived under the guidance of Coach Sarah Smith (née Haveman). And when Coach Smith made the move to Texas, Howell opted to follow her to the Forty Acres for the 2023-24 academic calendar year.
The newly-minted Longhorn star was the 2023 NCAA Indoor Championship mile national title winner, upsetting an extremely talented field (and more specifically, Lauren Gregory) in only her second-ever race held at altitude. The former Illinois distance ace earned the individual title with a rough 4:28 altitude-converted mile.
During the 2023 outdoor track season, Howell flexed her range, running 2:02 (800), 4:11 (1500) and 16:12 (5k). Although her 1500-meter mark wasn’t a PR, it was still worthy of being a national-caliber time. But in the end, Howell earned her third All-American honor after finishing 8th in her marquee event at the NCAA Outdoor Championships. She was the only one who opted to chase Tuohy early-on, a plan that didn't work out as well as those who were a bit more patient.
Texas has a long history of being a stellar track program in the sprints and the field events. But now, with the addition of Howell, the Longhorns have found a legitimate 10-point threat to earn them key points in the middle distance events.
Admittedly, Howell's national title win is a bit of an outlier performance compared to her other efforts. But at the very least, this is someone who has extensive experience, is extremely consistent and has proven in races outside of the national stage that she can run with/along the leaders.
For us, that was more than enough to put her in "Part Two" of our preseason rankings.
On paper, Gabija Galvydyte is a nightmare to race for middle distance runners around the nation. Her sneaky-good cross country credentials exemplify the aerobic strength that she utilizes when implementing a front-running approach in the mile. In fact, that's something that we just saw from her at Boston University en route to a 4:33 mark (her PR is 4:32).
However, Galvydyte can effectively drop down in distance to the 800 meters which is clearly her best event, at least historically. Although the Oklahoma State star looked "good," but not "great" throughout most of last winter, the Lithuanian ace did end up running 2:00 for 800 meters at the NCAA Outdoor Championships to earn a career-defining (so far) silver medal.
This Cowgirl star is someone who knows how to put herself in position to contend with pretty much anyone. She is quietly consistent and has traditionally peaked for the postseason on most occasions.
The women's half-mile field in the NCAA won't get any easier in 2024, especially with the Stanford women and Michaela Rose returning. Even so, Galvydyte is very much in the same conversation as those ladies.
Duke star Amina Maatoug has been in fabulous form as of late.
The Blue Devil standout placed 9th at the NCAA XC Championships this past fall, a tremendous finish to what was a remarkably consistent fall. Maatoug then took advantage of that strength-based fitness just two weeks later at the Boston U. Season Opener where she ran an outstanding 8:46 mark over 3000 meters, finishing in 3rd place. That was an astounding nine-second PR.
Last winter, Maatoug proved that she was one of the most versatile runners in the nation, ranking in the top-18 on the D1 national leaderboard for the 800 meters (2:03), the mile (4:29 converted) and the 3000 meters (8:55).
The Dutch distance star concluded that season with an All-American finish in the mile. And while a 7th place may not have been the desired finish for someone who entered the meet as the national title favorite, it was still a season to remember and a catalyst for what we are seeing now.
Since then, Maatoug has made leaps and bounds in terms of her aerobic fitness. Her recent 8:46 effort just shows that she is beginning to reap the benefits of that improvement. With underrated consistency and crazy-impressive range on her side, which may be the best in the nation, Maatoug is going to be a real handful in whatever event(s) she chooses to toe the line for come March.
Washington standout Sophie O'Sullivan was certainly strong this past fall and had a handful of great moments last spring. Running 4:08 for 1500 meters multiple times and looking like a top threat at the metric mile distance for most of last spring demanded respect.
However, what truly puts O'Sullivan in this next tier of distance stars is her unbelievably strong summer campaign of racing.
While overseas, the Husky standout carried her momentum from the spring to run jaw-dropping times of 2:01 (800), 2:37 (1k), 4:02 (1500) and 8:44 (3k). In fact, she actually ran her incredible 4:02 mark at the World Championships while representing Ireland. For perspective, only three other collegiates have ever run faster than O'Sullivan when looking at the "All Conditions, All Dates" list.
O'Sullivan's 4:33 mile PR from last winter is very strong, but her summer season was far and beyond better than that. And while we're confident that this Washington star will be better on the track than the grass, it's hard to know precisely how those performances will translate to the indoor oval.
That's why we opted to be a bit more cautious with her preseason ranking (relative to others with her resume) and place her at TSR #9...for now.
After a cracking fall campaign, it was no surprise to see Alabama ace Hilda Olemomoi extend her string of racing by traveling up to the Boston U. Season Opener to race in the 5k. There, the Crimson Tide star shaved half a second off of her PR, running 15:17, a time that was only bettered (among NCAA athletes) by Parker Valby’s new collegiate record.
Olemomoi's early-season venture to Boston nearly mirrored her one from the previous year (15:17.97 in the 5k). And if that is anything to go by, then the junior is in for one helluva winter season...
Last winter, Olemomoi went on to post a jaw-dropping 8:45 mark in the 3k, a time that was only bettered by the great Katelyn Tuohy. Those lightning-quick times were then backed up in the postseason as the Kenyan standout placed 2nd (5k) and 5th (3k) in her first NCAA Indoor Championship appearance.
With metronomic-like consistency (she rarely has an "off" day) and a valuable year of experience now on her side, this Crimson Tide star has all of the weapons in her aerobic arsenal to challenge for top-three finish in both of the distance events this March. While she may not have Mercy Chelangat to key off of this year, she will most certainly benefit from having her new teammate, Doris Cherop, alongside her.
After concluding her freshman indoor track season with a 2nd place finish over 800 meters at the 2023 NCAA Indoor Championships, Stanford’s Juliette Whittaker is expected to challenge for the national title once again.
During the 2023 indoor season, Whittaker mixed it up in the 800 meters and the mile, running times of 1:59 (a rough altitude conversion) and 4:33, respectively. And by the time that the indoor national meet rolled around, Whittaker was a favorite for the title alongside teammate, Roisin Willis. Whittaker qualified for the final seamlessly and ended night one on a high note after holding off a late-charge on the anchor leg from Arkansas in the DMR.
In the 800-meter final, Whittaker fell 0.12 seconds shy of winning the 800-meter individual title, but 2nd place in her first go-around at the NCAA Indoor Championships was still a fantastic way to end her season. By the end of the winter months, it was clear that Whittaker was at the highest tier of women in the NCAA for that event despite her youth.
During the spring, we were a bit surprised to see the rising sophomore opt to focus on the 1500 meters. Whittaker impressed us with her 4:12 speed, but at the West Regional Championships, she failed to qualify for the outdoor national meet, a surprise omission which was not indicative of her fitness or talent.
Of course, let's be clear: That one blip on Whittaker's resume doesn't erase the success that she had last year. For the most part, this Stanford sophomore is actually a very smart racer who has the potential to win the 800-meter individual title this winter. She could even make some noise up front in the mile if she chooses to focus on strength over speed.
This high school phenom was wildly impressive in her first collegiate season, matching her 1:59 (800) PR two times, once at altitude. Even more impressive, though, was the fact that the Cardinal youngster won her first individual title on the oval at the indoor national meet.
After an outstanding regular season (highlighted by a 1:59 mark), the Stanford youngster was ready to take on the most elite women in the nation at the NCAA Indoor Championships. But as it turns out, Willis was way ahead of those established veterans. In her season finale, Willis recorded her second sub-2:00 mark en route to the national title, out-kicking teammate, Juliette Whittaker.
Throughout the spring months, Willis would battle some personal challenges, much of which she shared on Instagram after her season concluded. And yet, despite those hurdles, this Wisconsin native somehow managed to record top marks of 2:00 (800) and 4:13 (1500). She wasn’t able to repeat as the NCAA individual champion over 800 meters, but a 4th place finish to cap off her rookie season was still very commendable.
Admittedly, we didn't really see much tactical acumen from Roisin Willis last winter or spring...but that's largely because she was just better than everyone else, especially on the indoor oval. There is still so much room for growth for this sophomore star between her natural growth, removing personal road blocks and simply gaining a year of experience.
And if someone that talented still has that much opportunity to get better, then Willis' ceiling for the upcoming season could be borderline historic.
Alabama newcomer Doris Cherop has taken the NCAA by storm.
The freshman superstar has been superb since her arrival this fall, never failing to finish outside of the top-two in any race. Cherop’s cross country campaign was highlighted with 2nd place finishes at the SEC XC Championships, the South regional meet and the national meet. The Crimson Tide star has been furious in her race approaches, and besides Katelyn Tuohy, she has been one of the few women to (somewhat) challenge Florida’s Parker Valby.
However, while her prowess on the grass is undeniable, there remains a degree of uncertainty about how she will perform on the indoor oval. That's why we have placed her at TSR #5 in these rankings.
This uncertainty primarily arises from her lack of experience on the indoor circuit. Despite Cherop's unquestionable talent, there's simply no way of knowing how she'll translate her raw fitness to more nuanced and strategic battles on championship stages. Yes, she does have an insanely quick 5k road race time of 14:40, but translating that effort to a 200-meter indoor track is by no means an exact science.
With that being said, seeing the success of Cherop's Crimson Tide counterpart, Hilda Olemomoi, is highly encouraging. Olemomoi was wildly impressive last winter and has already flexed her talents this season, posting a blazing time of 15:17 in the 5k. If Olemomoi was able to have that much success, then in theory, Cherop could be even better.
This duo worked in tandem all fall, with Cherop usually having the edge in the final stages. If this is anything to go by, then we should, at the very least, expect something very similar this winter.
Maia Ramsden has a skillset that was made for the indoor track season. Her endurance-based strength usually caps out at 5000 meters (i.e. she's not going to contest a 10k) and as we saw last spring, she is an elite miler, both in terms of times and tactics.
When you combine Ramsden's lethal middle distance turnover and speed with her underrated success on both the grass and in the 5k, you get someone who is also beyond phenomenal over 3000 meters. And sure enough, we saw that earlier this month as the Harvard veteran ran 8:46 (3k), the NCAA #6 all-time mark in the event.
With incredible personal bests of 2:43 (1k), 4:08 (1500), 4:30 (mile), 8:46 (3k) and 15:40 (5k), you can see why someone like Ramsden is viewed so highly in these rankings.
The Harvard ace was viewed as a national title favorite last winter and then delivered on that potential during the spring by upsetting Katelyn Tuohy. And with a historically elite 3k PR now on her resume, the arguments against Ramsden being placed in our top-five are few to none.
Olivia Markezich capitalized upon her cross country endurance two weeks ago following the NCAA XC Championships by traveling to the Boston U. Season Opener to race the 3k. There, the Notre Dame star knocked an incredible 10 seconds off of her previous personal best en route to an 8:40 PR, outdistancing the field by six seconds and earning an NCAA #2 all-time mark.
This Fighting Irish superstar has earned herself a seat at the table when discussing who is in contention for the 3k individual title at the NCAA Indoor Championships this winter. Even though she is the top returner from the 2023 indoor national meet after finishing 2nd to Katelyn Tuohy last year, the Notre Dame senior could face some heavy competition in that event via Harvard’s Maia Ramsden, Florida’s Parker Valby and the Alabama women.
Even so, that 8:40 mark, when paired with her 4:34 (mile) speed and 15:33 (5k) strength, gives Markezich all of the necessary tools to take down the top runners in the country. Between her experience, late-race strength (something that she showed us at the last three national meets) and subtly-great range, Markezich has everything that is needed to win her second NCAA title.
During the 2023 indoor track season, Michaela Rose threw down six 800-meter performances of 2:03 or faster. All of that led to a 3rd place finish at the indoor national meet.
The LSU star only got better during the outdoor track season, winning all but one 800 meter-race that she contested. The race that Rose placed 2nd in was at the Bryan Clay Invite and the Tiger star was caught at the line by professional runner, Nikki Hiltz. However, a 2nd place finish with an NCAA #2 all-time mark of 1:59.08 PR was a great consolation prize for Rose.
By the time the 2023 NCAA Outdoor Championships rolled around, Rose was the favorite for the individual title. And sure enough, the LSU ace delivered, winning her first national title in 1:59.83, taking down the field by over half a second.
Rose has thrived over the last year by simply being more fit than everyone else. As such, she has been an aggressive front-runner who likes to take things wire-to-wire if she can. Stanford’s Roisin Willis and Juliette Whittaker will still act as road blocks towards a second national title, but Rose looked like she was in far greater command of her fitness during the spring than she was in the winter.
And if that command of her fitness translates to the 2024 indoor track season, then Rose should very much be viewed as the indoor national title favorite over 800 meters.
It’s hard to keep pace with Florida’s Parker Valby. The Gator superstar is on a completely different level from her NCAA competition, especially given her recent 14:56 (5k) collegiate record.
In the grand scheme of things, there's not really a question of whether or not the Florida superstar wins a third individual national title, but rather, by how much will her margin of victory (or victories) be on the national stage?
Despite Katelyn Tuohy very recently being an NCAA star, Parker Valby should still be considered once-in-a-generation talent in the longer distance events. Her path to winning the 5k title, and potentially even the 3k title, at the NCAA Indoor Championships this winter just got a whole lot easier with Tuohy opting to forego her remaining eligibility.
With an 8:49 (3k) PR and her recent sub-15:00 (5k) mark, Valby has a resume that forces you to match her front-running style -- an approach that has worked quite well for her as of late.
There is, however, one point of concern that needs to be noted.
Over the past two indoor track seasons, Valby was unable to race at the indoor national meet due to a late-season injury. These unfortunate injuries kept Valby from gaining experience at the NCAA Indoor Championships. But given her resume thus far, the Gator superstar won’t need that experience to compete for yet another national title.
To beat Valby, the competition is going to have to elevate their game big-time as the Gator star doesn’t let up when someone’s on her shoulder. Rather, she digs deep for another gear and dominates. Get used to seeing that again over the next few months.
Kimberley May (Providence)
Shannon Flockhart (Providence)
Sydney Thorvaldsen (Arkansas)
Meghan Hunter (BYU)
Aubrey Frentheway (BYU)
Kelsey Chmiel (NC State)
Elise Stearns (Northern Arizona)
Annika Reiss (Northern Arizona)
Gracelyn Larkin (Northern Arizona)
Gladys Chepnegetich (Clemson)
Silan Ayyildiz (Oregon)
Kaylee Mitchell (Oregon State)
Grace Fetherstonhaugh (Oregon State)
Kenzie Doyle (UMass Lowell)
Rylee Penn (Louisville)
Melissa Riggins (Georgetown)
Rosina Machu (Gonzaga)
Alexandra Carlson (Rutgers)
Kayla Bell (Murray State)
Amaris Tyynismaa (NC State)
Sam Bush (NC State)
Angelina Napoleon (NC State)
Molly Born (Oklahoma State)
Teagan Schein-Becker (Rider)
Laura Pellicoro (Portland)
Riley Chamberlain (BYU)
Jenna Hutchins (BYU)
Sadie Sargent (BYU)
Ella Baran (Colorado)
Allison Johnson (Penn State)
Rose Pittman (UCLA)
Ella Nelson (Oregon)
Alyson Churchill (Florida State)
Phoebe Anderson (Columbia)
Lauren Freeland (Michigan State)
Sivan Auerbach (Oklahoma State)