2022 Men's Way Too Early XC Preview (Part One)

NOTE: TFRRS is used as a general guide when discussing eligibility and returners. It is possible that someone's anticipated eligibility for this upcoming cross country season isn't properly listed on TFRRS. While certain athletes and teams will be mentioned in this article, please note that any omissions should not indicate a negative view of the omitted athletes or teams in questions. There are only so many teams and athletes that we can mention.

In the summer of 2019, The Stride Report did something that stunned the country.

We ranked the Stanford men over the Northern Arizona men for the top spot in our preseason cross country team rankings.

I have been writing and covering collegiate distance running for over seven years now. Never in my seven years did I have as much push back on a singular piece of analysis as those rankings did.

Ultimately, Northern Arizona proved to be the better team that season, although they did lose the national title to BYU in stunning upset fashion.

But nearly three years later, I can't help but stick to my guns...

I still think we made the right call.

You see, our summer rankings aren't necessarily about trying to predict where certain teams will finish at the NCAA XC Championships later that fall.

Sure, that's what the summer rankings effectively accomplish, but when we looked at all of the information that we had in that moment, before the season even began, we had reason to believe that Stanford was going to have four of the top-30 (or even four of the top-20), men's distance runners in the NCAA that year.

And that was a very realistic scenario!

But that summer still comes back to haunt me. Not just because Stanford underwhelmed that season, but because Northern Arizona also looked like the correct pick for our TSR #1 spot until all logic was thrown out the window at the 2019 national meet.

Of course, life went on after that and I promptly forgot about the great ranking debacle of 2019...that is, until I sat down to write this article.

You see, when I look at who the team title contenders are going into this fall, I can't help but find myself fixated on three teams: Northern Arizona, Stanford and Oklahoma State.

Northern Arizona, on paper, is primed to win another title. In fact, it's hard to see them not winning another title. The Lumberjacks (might) return all of their men from last year's title-winning lineup which soundly beat runner-up Iowa State by 45 points.

The only caveat, however, is that Abdi Nur could leave and opt to turn pro. The speculation around the country is that he will, but I imagine that no one outside of NAU really has a good idea of what will happen.

But let's suppose that Nur does leave Northern Arizona later this summer. How vulnerable are the Lumberjacks in that scenario?

The answer to that question partially depends on what you think of incoming high school superstar Colin Sahlman. Formerly high school teammates with Nico Young, Sahlman left Newbury Park High School as one of the greatest prep-level distance runners to ever toe the line for a track or cross country race.

We have every reason to believe that Sahlman can be an All-American later this year...but it's hard to know exactly what you're going to get with rookies, regardless of who they are. Their youth gives them tons of upside, but it also makes them vulnerable scorers in a varsity lineup.

But Sahlman isn't like your average freshman. This is a guy who has trained with elite-level stars that many top D1 programs would consider to be one of their more talented guys.

In a world where Nur leaves and Sahlman is either a) redshirted, or b) just isn't as good as we hope he is, then that scenario leaves the door open for Stanford...but only by a crack.

The Cardinal, on paper, are the only team that truly has enough proven firepower to match what Northern Arizona...I think. Between Ky Robinson, Cole Sprout and Charles Hicks, those are three men who could legitimately place in the top-10 at the national meet.

Remember, this is a group that earned numerous All-American honors this past winter and spring and they all ran under 27:50 for 10,000 meters. This trio also put themselves within the top-seven spots at Nuttycombe while both Robinson and Hicks earned top-14 finishes at the cross country national meet last fall.

Sprout, however, struggled a bit, placing 81st behind teammate Devin Hart who placed 80th.

In order for Stanford to have a legitimate shot at beating NAU this year, that entire trio needs to have their best races on the same say. Again, that likely means that this entire trio finishes in the top-10 at the NCAA XC Championships.

And generally speaking, that's the bare minimum required to beat the Lumberjacks.

Stanford's depth was far from bad last year. In fact, in the grand scheme of things, it was actually pretty good.

But for a program that was aiming for a podium spot, or even the team title, the backend of the Cardinal's scoring five simply needed to be better. Depth, after all, is the reason why the Colorado men won the PAC-12 cross country team title last year and Stanford didn't.

Northern Arizona, meanwhile, returns all five of their All-American scorers, meaning that Stanford's chances of winning gold this year requires a very small, near-zero margin for error.

But if you're a fan of the Cardinal, then I have good news for you.

You're supporting cast looks like it's the best it has ever been.

Thomas Boyden is hovering between being a top contributor and a legitimate star on any team not named Stanford, NAU or Oklahoma State. If the Cardinal didn't have (arguably) the best distance trio in the NCAA, then Boyden would be far more appreciated than he currently is following his great outdoor track season.

Devin Hart showed promise on the grass last year and ran 7:51 for 3000 meters this past winter. Meika Beaudoin-Rousseau has been a fairly solid and underrated piece over the last year or two. Evan Burke has quietly run 13:38 for 5000 meters and Robert DiDonato was a high-octane distance talent in high school who has now shaken off the rookie rust. The addition of superstar recruits such as Zane Bergen and Gavin Sherry doesn't hurt, either.

There are a handful of high-potential names on Stanford's roster. Not everyone in this supporting cast needs to be a star, but at the very least, they need to have their best races of their careers at the national meet...and they probably can't afford to finish outside of the top-50 (the final two scorers, that is).

But Stanford isn't the only team that could make life challenging for Northern Arizona.

What we've seen out of Oklahoma State as of late has been extremely promising. And despite their 3rd place team finish from last year, one could argue that the Cowboys left a heavy amount of points on the table at last year's NCAA XC Championships.

Oklahoma State put three men in the top-30 at last year's national meet (Rodriguez, Foster and Shitsama). However, no one earned a spot in the top-20, individually. Long-time veteran Ryan Smeeton held his own by placing 57th, but he was arguably capable of more. Unfortunately for Oklahoma State, Smeeton appears to be out of cross country eligibility.

However, outside of those four is where things get interesting.

Freshman Rory Leonard placed 79th while Alex Maier and Ryan Schoppe struggled a bit, pacing 147th and 225th, respectively.

On paper, Maier and Schoppe are two of the more talented distance runners on this roster. Maier just had a monster year on the track, ultimately winning silver at the outdoor national meet in the 10k. Schoppe, meanwhile, flexed outstanding marks of 3:37 (1500) and 7:46 (3k) to pair with his 13:43 (5k) personal best.

Maier and Schoppe are capable of doing so much more. On paper, they are both All-American-caliber talents on the grass, something that Maier has already proven in prior national meets.

There is a very realistic world where Oklahoma State has five men in the top-40 at the NCAA XC Championships -- and that's not even taking Fouad Messaoudi, Will Muirhead or Rory Leonard into consideration (amongst others).

Now, admittedly, everything I am saying comes from an optimistic point of view. Assuming that the Cowboys are going to have everyone run their absolute best on the same say and earn five top-40 finishes is a big ask for any team.

And the craziest part is that even if Oklahoma State did put five in the top-40, they would still need more top-half scoring to compete with the Northern Arizona's and Stanford's of the world. Those teams are (probably) putting three men in the top-20.

That's not to say that the Cowboys can't match that exact scoring potency, but just like Stanford, a lot of things need to go right for Oklahoma State if they want to sincerely challenge or scare the Lumberjacks.

But when you really think about it, Dave Smith's group may be the most prepared (and most complete) distance squad capable of taking on the Goliath that is Northern Arizona.

But I guess we'll just have to wait and see...