Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
Oct 27, 202215 min
Our NCAA XC Championship qualifying projections have returned!
Thanks to the incredible work from our friend, Bo Waggoner, we were able to collect data and then utilize his website, XC Quals, to construct our national meet qualifying projections for the Division One level.
Be sure to check out Bo's site and play around with your own regional meet orders!
Also, if you want to learn more about the Kolas national qualifying process, be sure to also check out our UNDERSTANDING KOLAS page!
With that said, here are our projections for the national meet. Below, we listed all of our automatic qualifiers (the projected top-two teams in each region) and then broke down how certain teams would receive their at-large bids.
Please keep in mind that these Kolas projections will be updated following the completion of the conference meets. Those results will surely change our projections in a fairly substantial way.
Let's begin!
*TEAMS IN BOLD INDICATE AUTO-LOCKS*
1. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
2. Wisconsin Badgers
3. Michigan Wolverines
4. Butler Bulldogs
5. Michigan State Spartans
6. Miami (OH) RedHawks
1. Villanova Wildcats
2. Princeton Tigers
3. Georgetown Hoyas
4. Navy Midshipmen
1. Oklahoma State Cowboys
2. Tulsa Golden Hurricanes
3. Iowa State Cyclones
4. South Dakota State Jackrabbits
1. BYU Cougars
2. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
3. Air Force Falcons
4. Colorado Buffaloes
5. Montana State Bobcats
6. Utah State Aggies
7. Colorado State Rams
8. Wyoming Cowboys
1. Syracuse Orange
2. Harvard Crimson
3. Providence Friars
4. Cornell Big Red
1. Tennessee Volunteers
2. Alabama Crimson Tide
3. Ole Miss Rebels
4. Florida State Seminoles
1. Texas Longhorns
2. Arkansas Razorbacks
3. Texas A&M Aggies
1. Wake Forest Demon Deacons
2. NC State Wolfpack
3. North Carolina Tar Heels
4. Virginia Cavaliers
5. Charlotte 49ers
6. Duke Blue Devils
7. Furman Paladins
1. Stanford Cardinal
2. Portland Pilots
3. Oregon Ducks
4. California Baptist Lancers
5. Washington Huskies
6. Gonzaga Bulldogs
7. Cal Poly Mustangs
8. Boise State Broncos
When looking at the top-two teams in each region, you'll find that the Air Force men beat those teams a total of 11 times prior to the conference meets. No other team has as many points as the Air Force men do.
As a result, the Falcons are selected as the first at-large team to the national meet.
They give one point to Colorado who beat Air Force at the Cowboy Jamboree.
Prior to Air Force qualifying for the national meet via an at-large bid, the Colorado men had a total of nine Kolas points. However, since they beat Air Force earlier in the season (at the Cowboy Jamboree), the Buffaloes earn one additional Kolas point since the Falcons just qualified for the national meet.
But regardless of that win over Air Force, the Colorado were always going to earn the second at-large bid in these projections.
Colorado gives away no points to any teams who are still waiting to be selected.
At this point in the national qualifying selection process, you'll find that Montana State, Butler, Michigan, North Carolina and Oregon are all tied with two Kolas points each.
The Gonzaga men have three Kolas points, but because there are two or more teams ahead of them in their region who have not yet been selected for the national meet, we can't entertain the Bulldogs (for now).
Butler and Michigan both lost to Montana State at Joe Piane. The Michigan men also lost to both Oregon and North Carolina at Nuttycombe. As a result, neither Butler nor Michigan are selected to advance to the national meet at this spot.
North Carolina also lost Oregon at Nuttycombe. As a result, the Tar Heels are not selected to advance to the national meet at this spot.
Montana State and Oregon are both remaining and neither team has a loss to any of the teams with two Kolas points in this stage of our selection process (which is why they are still in contention to earn this at-large spot).
However, Oregon and Montana State have not faced each other this season, so there is no head-to-head tie-breaker to review.
Instead, we have to compare the common opponents who Montana State and Oregon shared this season (not including conference meets). At this point in the season, Montana State has beaten their common opponents roughly 66.66% of time while Oregon has only beaten their common opponents roughly 64.7% of the time.
As a result, Montana State wins the tie-breaker and advances to the national meet via our third at-large spot. They give away no points to any remaining teams who are still waiting to be selected.
With Montana State now qualified for the national meet, we return to the same tie-breaking scenario that we highlighted above. However, this time, Montana State does not have to be considered.
If you follow the same process of elimination that we outlined above, then you'll find that the Oregon Ducks earn the fourth at-large bid to the national meet (because they don't have a head-to-head loss). They give away no points to any remaining teams who are still waiting to be selected.
We are now left with North Carolina, Butler and Michigan who are all tied at two Kolas points each. Gonzaga still has the most Kolas points (with three), but they still can't be considered for a national qualifying spot since there are still (at least) two non-qualified teams who are projected to finish ahead of them in their region.
With North Carolina, Butler and Michigan, we have to continue to do the same tie-breaking procedure that we highlighted with Montana State and Oregon.
Butler may have defeated Michigan at Joe Piane, but Butler is also projected to lose to Michigan at the Great Lakes Regional XC Championships. And since the regional meet is more recent, the Butler men would lose the tie-breaker to Michigan.
This leaves Michigan and North Carolina remaining.
Since North Carolina defeated Michigan at Nuttycombe, the Tar Heels are selected to the national meet because, again, they don't have a head-to-head loss. They give away no points to any remaining teams who are still waiting to be selected.
Butler and Michigan remain tied with two Kolas points while the Gonzaga men are still holding the most Kolas points with three.
However, the Gonzaga Bulldogs cannot be considered for a national qualifying spot until California Baptist earns a national qualifying spot. That's because the NCAA will only entertain the top-two non-qualified teams in each region at a time.
Butler and Michigan are tied at two Kolas points, but as we outlined in the above section with North Carolina, the Michigan men will win this tie-breaker.
As a result, the Wolverines advance to the national meet. They give one point (each) to Charlotte, Butler and Cal Poly (since they lost to those teams at Joe Piane) as well as Washington, Utah State, Georgetown, Colorado State and Duke (since they lost to those teams at Nuttycombe).
After earning another Kolas point from Michigan, the Butler men are the next team selected to the national meet. They hold three points. And yes, Gonzaga still cannot be selected.
The Bulldogs give one point (each) to Charlotte (since they lost to that team at Joe Piane) as well as California Baptist (since they lost to that team at Pre-Nationals).
After earning another Kolas point from Butler, the Charlotte men are the next team selected to the national meet. They hold three points. And yes, Gonzaga still cannot be selected.
However, there's a catch.
The Virginia men are projected to finish one spot ahead of Charlotte at the Southeast Regional XC Championships. Right now, the Cavaliers only hold one point and they would not be selected to the national meet based on their total number of Kolas points.
But since the UVA men are expected to finish one spot ahead of Charlotte at their regional meet, they will get "pushed" into the NCAA XC Championships. This is because the 4th place team in a region cannot qualify for the national meet without the 3rd place team also getting into the national meet.
Since Virginia is pushed into the national meet, they do not give out any points.
The Charlotte men give away no points to any remaining teams who are still waiting to be selected.
We have now reached a point where Utah State, Colorado State, Duke, California Baptist, Washington and Georgetown are all tied with two Kolas points.
Gonzaga has three points, but still cannot qualify. It's a similar story for Cal Poly. They have two points, but there are too many teams who are projected to be ahead of them in their region at this point in the selection process.
Duke lost to both Utah State and Georgetown at Paul Short and at Nuttycombe. The Blue Devils also lost to Washington and Colorado State at Nuttycombe, giving Duke an 0-6 record in these head-to-head matchups.
That is not be enough to win this six-team tie-breaker.
Colorado State lost to Utah State at the Griak Invitational and at Nuttycombe. The Rams also lost to California Baptist at the Griak Invitational, lost to Washington at Nuttycombe and lost to Georgetown at Nuttycombe.
Colorado State did, however, beat Duke at Nuttycombe, giving the Rams a 1-5 record in these head-to-head matchups. Still, that is not enough to win the six-team tie-breaker, mainly because you need to have zero losses to win these multi-team tie-breakers.
Georgetown did defeat Duke at both Paul Short and Nuttycombe. They also beat Colorado State at Nuttycombe. However, they lost to Utah State at both Paul Short and Nuttycombe. They also lost to Washington at Nuttycombe.
As a result, the Hoyas boast a 3-3 record which is not enough to win the six-team tie-breaker
The Washington men have wins over Utah State, Colorado State, Duke and Georgetown, all from Nuttycombe. However, they did lose to California Baptist at Nuttycombe, giving the Huskies a 4-1 record.
Even so, that will still not be enough to advance to the national meet at this spot.
Utah State beat Colorado State at Nuttycombe and is expected to defeat the Rams yet again at the Mountain Regional XC Championships. Meanwhile, Utah State has defeated both Georgetown and Duke at both Paul Short and Nuttycombe this season.
They did, however, take one loss to Washington at Nuttycombe, giving the Aggies a 6-1 record.
And somehow, that's still not enough.
That's because the California Baptist men are projected to beat Washington at the West Regional XC Championships and they have already defeated Colorado State at the Griak Invitational.
With a 2-0 head-to-head record among the five other teams in contention for this national qualifying spot, the Lancers are selected to the national meet, simply because they do not have a head-to-head loss against any of those teams.
The CBU men give away no points to any remaining teams who are still waiting to be selected.
With California Baptist now advancing, the Gonzaga men can finally be considered for a national qualifying spot since they are among the top-two teams in their region who have not yet been selected for the national meet.
At this point in the process, they have three Kolas points, more than any other team in the country.
However, in order for the Gonzaga men to qualify for the national meet, the Washington men would also need to advance to the national meet.
In theory, this is where a "push" scenario would come into play.
But the NCAA wants to avoid "push" scenarios whenever possible. And since we can calculate that the Gonzaga men will eventually qualify for the national meet on their own, we're going to hold off on selecting them.
This means that Washington, Utah State, Georgetown, Duke and Colorado State are all back to being tied at two Kolas points each. Once again, we have to follow the same head-to-head process that we highlighted above when we selected California Baptist.
However, since CBU has already qualified for the national meet and are no longer considered in this head-to-head tie-breaking scenario, the Washington men actually have a perfect 4-0 record now against all of these teams
As a result, the Washington men are selected to the national meet. They give away one point to the Gonzaga men since the Huskies lost to the Bulldogs at the Cowboy Jamboree.
We can finally select the Gonzaga Bulldogs who have four total Kolas points, more than any other team in the NCAA at this point in the selection process.
Due to their performance at Nuttycombe, they give one point (each) to Utah State, Georgetown, Colorado State, Duke, Iowa State, Michigan State, Boise State and Providence.
When it comes to the final spot in our Kolas national qualifying projections, you'll find that Utah State, Duke and Georgetown are tied with three Kolas points each.
The Colorado State men also have three points. However, since the Rams are projected to finish behind Utah State in the Mountain region, they cannot advance to the national meet because there is only one national qualifying spot remaining.
If we redo our head-to-head tie-breaking scenario once more, you'll find that the Utah State men have a perfect 4-0 record which is enough to advance to the national meet, closing out the NCAA XC Championship field.
Utah State would give away no Kolas points to any remaining teams who are still waiting to be selected.
If there was a theoretical 14th at-large bid to the national meet (there's not), then Georgetown, Colorado State and Duke would all be tied with two points. They are all the best teams in their region who have not yet been selected to the national meet.
No other teams have two Kolas points.
The Georgetown men beat Colorado State at Nuttycombe. They also beat Duke at both Nuttycombe and Paul Short. With a perfect 3-0 record, the Hoyas would have been the next to the national meet if there was a 14th at-large spot.
That, however, is not the case.
Instead, Georgetown is expected to be the first team out of the national meet right now.
*TEAMS IN BOLD INDICATE AUTO-LOCKS*
1. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
2. Wisconsin Badgers
3. Toledo Rockets
4. Michigan Wolverines
5. Michigan State Spartans
6. Ohio State Buckeyes
7. Indiana Hoosiers
1. Georgetown Hoyas
2. West Virginia Mountaineers
3. Penn State Nittany Lions
4. Princeton Tigers
1. Oklahoma State Cowgirls
2. Northwestern Wildcats
3. Illinois Fighting Illini'
4. Iowa State Cyclones
1. New Mexico Lobos
2. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
3. BYU Cougars
4. Utah Utes
5. Colorado Buffaloes
6. Colorado State Rams
7. Utah Valley Wolverines
8. Air Force Falcons
9. Utah State Aggies
10. Wyoming Cowgirls
1. Syracuse Orange
2. Providence Friars
3. Harvard Crimson
4. Connecticut Huskies
1. Alabama Crimson Tide
2. Florida State Seminoles
3. Lipscomb Bison
4. Ole Miss Rebels
1. Arkansas Razorbacks
2. Texas A&M Aggies
3. Texas Longhorns
1. NC State Wolfpack
2. North Carolina Tar Heels
3. Virginia Cavaliers
4. Furman Paladins
5. Liberty Flames
6. Kentucky Wildcats
7. Duke Blue Devils
1. Stanford Cardinal
2. California Baptist Lancers
3. Oregon Ducks
4. Washington Huskies
5. Oregon State Beavers
6. Boise State Broncos
When looking at the top-two teams in each region, you'll find that the BYU women beat those teams a total of 12 times prior to the conference meets. No other team has as many points as the BYU women do.
As a result, the Cougars are selected as the first at-large team to the national meet. They give away no points to any teams who are still waiting to be selected.
The Utah women have accumulated eight Kolas points largely due to their successful efforts at Nuttycombe and the Griak Invitational. The Colorado women actually have more Kolas points (nine) and would theoretically be the next team selected.
However, the NCAA wants to avoid "push" scenario whenever possible. And in order for Colorado to advance to the national meet, they would need to "push" in the Utah women who are projected to finish ahead of them at the Mountain Regional XC Championships.
Luckily, our calculations tell us that Colorado will eventually get in on their own if we keep going through the selection process.
As a result, this means that Utah advances to the national meet since they have the most points remaining of any other team in consideration. They give away no points to any teams who are still waiting to be selected.
With the Utah women selected to the national meet, we can now select the Colorado women without having to worry about "push" scenarios. With nine points, the Buffaloes advance to the national meet. They give away no points to any teams who are still waiting to be selected.
The Oregon women and Toledo are both projected to finish 3rd in their region and both teams, at this point in the national qualifying selection process, hold five Kolas points.
When using the head-to-head tie-breaking method, we find that the Ducks defeated Toledo earlier this season at Nuttycombe. As a result, the Ducks are the next team selected to the national meet.
They give away no points to any teams who are still waiting to be selected.
With Oregon now selected, and no other teams matching the five Kolas points that the Toledo women hold, the Rockets are the next team selected to the national meet.
Toledo gives one point to Illinois since they lost to the Fighting Illini' at the John McNichols Invite. The Rockets also give one point to the Liberty women who beat Toledo at Joe Piane.
With Toledo now advancing to the national meet, there are now three teams holding a total of three Kolas points: Washington, Colorado State and Michigan State.
The Ohio State women also have three Kolas points, but because there are two or more teams ahead of them in their region who have not yet been selected for the national meet, we can't entertain the Buckeyes (for now).
Between Washington, Colorado State and Michigan State, it's the Huskies who have not lost to either team. With a 2-0 record against those two programs -- and the Rams and the Wolverines both holding one loss in this three-team head-to-head tie-breaker -- the Washington women are the next team selected to go to the national meet.
The Husky women give one point to the Utah Valley women who beat Washington at the Cowboy Jamboree.
With Washington now selected, the Utah Valley women now have three points.
Because of that extra point, we have yet another three-team head-to-head tie-breaker scenario which includes Utah Valley, Colorado State and Michigan State who are all tied at three Kolas points each.
The Colorado State women defeated the Michigan State women at Nuttycombe, but they also lost to the Spartans at the Griak Invitational. The Rams also defeated Utah Valley at Nuttycombe and are projected to beat the Wolverines again at the Mountain Regional XC Championships.
The Michigan State women, meanwhile, beat Utah Valley at Nuttycombe and, as we already mentioned, beat Colorado State at the Griak Invitational.
And as you can tell at this point, Utah Valley doesn't have win over either team.
Despite Michigan State and Colorado State both holding one loss in this head-to-head tie-breaking scenario, the Rams would still get the tie-breaking edge since their head-to-head win over Michigan State came more recently.
As a result, the Colorado State women are the next team selected to the national meet.
They give one point to Michigan State who beat the Rams at the Griak Invitational.
With the Michigan State women now holding four Kolas points following Colorado State's advancement to the national meet, the Spartans would theoretically be the next team selected.
But like we have mentioned before, the NCAA wants to avoid "push" scenarios whenever possible. And in order for Michigan State to advance to the national meet, they would need to "push" in the Michigan women who are projected to finish ahead of them at the Great Lakes Regional XC Championships.
Luckily, our calculations tell us that Michigan State will eventually get into the national meet on their own if we keep going through this selection process.
As a result, the Utah Valley is the next team selected. They have three Kolas points which is more than any other team that is eligible to be selected. The Ohio State women, in this scenario, are still not eligible to be selected despite having three Kolas points.
With the UVU women advancing to the national meet, they give one point (each) to Michigan State (via a loss from Nuttycombe) and Utah State (via a loss from Utah State).
Despite holding five Kolas points, we're still waiting for a scenario where Michigan State does not have to "push" the Michigan women into the national meet.
As we set aside Michigan State, we are now left with Illinois, Michigan and Lipscomb who are each holding two Kolas points.
The Illinois women got their two points from beating Toledo and Northwestern. Michigan got their two points from beating Northwestern and Florida State. Lipscomb got their two points from beating Northwestern and Texas A&M.
Lipscomb lost to Illinois earlier this season at the Gans Creek Classic, so Lipscomb is not being considered for this national qualifying spot.
Illinois and Michigan have not yet raced each other this season. However, when you compare the common opponents that both teams have raced against this fall and find each team's winning percentages against that collective whole, you'll find that Illinois wins the tie-breaker, holding a rough 77.78% win rate edge over Michigan's 70% win rate.
Illinois is now selected for the national meet. They give away no points to any teams who are still waiting to be selected.
The Michigan women and Lipscomb women are currently tied with two Kolas points each. The Michigan State women are still waiting for Michigan to advance to the national meet in order to avoid a "push" scenario.
Michigan and Lipscomb don't have any head-to-head matchups this season, but they do have a few common opponents. And when comparing the results between those shared opponents, Michigan has not lost to any of those teams (100% win rate) while Lipscomb only holds a 60% win rate against that same group.
As a result, the Michigan women are now selected to the national meet. They give one Kolas points to Michigan State who beat the Wolverines at Nuttycombe.
With the Michigan women now advancing to the national meet, we no longer need to worry about Michigan State "pushing" in another team. And with six Kolas points, the MSU women are the clear-cut next pick to be selected to the NCAA XC Championships.
They give away no points to any teams who are still waiting to be selected.
With three Kolas points, no concern about "pushing" in any teams and all of the teams projected to finish ahead of them in their region now qualified for the national meet, we can safely select the Ohio State women to advance to the NCAA XC Championships.
The Buckeyes hold three Kolas points which is more than any other remaining team at this point in our Kolas scenario. They give away no points to any teams who are still waiting to be selected.
With two Kolas points, no concern about "pushing" in any teams and all of the teams projected to finish ahead of them in their region now qualified for the national meet, we can safely select the Lipscomb women to advance to the NCAA XC Championships.
The Bison hold two points which is more than any other remaining team at this point in our Kolas scenario. They give away no points to any teams who are still waiting to be selected.
There are numerous teams remaining who are all tied with one Kolas point. However, almost all of those one-point teams would have to "push" in another team ahead of them in their region to get into the national meet if they also wanted to qualify.
And in a theoretical scenario where there's a 14th at-large bid (which, again, isn't real), we can't give two teams that final spot.
However, the Air Force women do have a singular Kolas point and there is no other team ahead of them in their region who isn't already qualified. As a result, the Falcons are the first team out of qualifying for the national meet.