Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
Nov 11, 202212 min
Here are our final projections for the national meet. Below, we listed all of our automatic qualifiers (the top-two teams in each region) and then broke down how certain teams are *expected* to receive their at-large bids.
Disclaimer: We are basing our national qualifying projections off of Bo Waggoner's Kolas tool, xcquals.com, via results that we compiled and tweaked for him. While we have every reason to believe that the outputs are correct, it is also possible that the calculator is not processing correctly or that the results need to be adjusted.
That said, we have double checked this Kolas scenario, calculating by hand, reevaluating "B" teams in certain meets throughout the season and by double checking any other tie-breaking patterns that we noticed.
We feel confident in Bo Waggoner's projection tool as well as the time that we put in to reconcile this output.
Also, if you want to learn more about the Kolas national qualifying process, be sure to also check out our UNDERSTANDING KOLAS page.
Alright...let's begin.
*TEAMS IN BOLD INDICATE AUTO-LOCKS*
1. Wisconsin Badgers
2. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
3. Michigan Wolverines
4. Butler Bulldogs
5. Michigan State Spartans
6. Indiana Hoosiers
1. Villanova Wildcats
2. Georgetown Hoyas
3. Princeton Tigers
4. La Salle Explorers
1. Tulsa Golden Hurricanes
2. Oklahoma State Cowboys
3. Iowa State Cyclones
4. Loyola (Ill.) Ramblers
1. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
2. BYU Cougars
3. Colorado Buffaloes
4. Air Force Falcons
5. Montana State Bobcats
6. Colorado State Rams
7. Utah State Aggies
8. Wyoming Cowboys
1. Syracuse Orange
2. Harvard Crimson
3. Cornell Big Red
4. Providence Friars
5. Iona Gaels
1. Tennessee Volunteers
2. Ole Miss Rebels
3. Alabama Crimson Tide
4. Florida State Seminoles
1. Arkansas Razorbacks
2. Texas Longhorns
3. Texas A&M Aggies
1. North Carolina Tar Heels
2. Virginia Cavaliers
3. Wake Forest Demon Deacons
4. NC State Wolfpack
5. Duke Blue Devils
6. Eastern Kentucky Colonels
7. Charlotte 49ers
8. Furman Paladins
1. Stanford Cardinal
2. Gonzaga Bulldogs
3. Washington Huskies
4. Oregon Ducks
5. California Baptist Lancers
6. Boise State Broncos
7. Portland Pilots
8. Cal Poly Mustangs
The Air Force men defeated our projected auto-lock teams a total of 13 times this fall, giving them the most Kolas points of any cross country program at this point in our selection process.
However, the Falcons also finished one spot behind the Colorado men in the Mountain region on Friday. While Air Force could theoretically "push" Colorado into the national meet, the NCAA wants to avoid that if possible.
And since we can calculate that both teams will eventually qualify on their own without a "push" scenario, they are not selected.
Instead, we select the Wake Forest men, the team with the next-most Kolas points at 12.
Wake Forest gives away no points to any teams who are still waiting to be selected.
Despite Air Force having more Kolas points, we will select the Colorado men at this at-large spot because we know that the Falcons will eventually get in without a "push" scenario. Colorado has 11 total Kolas points, the most of any other team waiting to be selected.
The Buffaloes give one point to Air Force who beat them at Nuttycombe.
Now that we can avoid a "push" scenario, the Air Force men are comfortably selected to advance to the national meet with 14 Kolas points.
Air Force gives away no points to any teams who are still waiting to be selected.
The NC State men are the next team to be selected to the national meet. They hold six Kolas points, which is the most points of any team that has not yet been selected.
The Wolfpack give away one point to Alabama, Montana State, Charlotte, Butler, Cal Poly and Michigan (via Joe Piane).
The Oregon men are the next team to be selected to the national meet. They hold five Kolas points, which is the most points of any eligible team that has not yet been selected.
However, the Ducks also finished behind Washington in the West region and since we want to avoid a "push" scenario, we will select Oregon at a different time. This is because we know that they will eventually qualify for the national meet.
Instead, we are left with Alabama, Princeton and Washington who all four Kolas points.
Washington lost to Princeton at the Cowboy Jamboree. And because they have a head-to-head loss, this means that the Huskies are not selected at this spot.
Alabama and Princeton have not faced each other head-to-head this year. This means that we need to compare all of the common opponents that Alabama and Princeton shared this fall and then see who has the highest winning percentage against that group.
When comparing common opponents, we see that Princeton has a 100% win rate while Alabama boasts a winning percentage of roughly 83%. As a result, the Tigers are selected at this spot.
Princeton gives away no points to any teams who are still waiting to be selected.
With four Kolas points each, Alabama and Washington are once again tied for this at-large bid. However, neither of these teams have faced each other this season, so we need to do another common opponents analysis.
When comparing common opponents, we see that Alabama has a rough 82% win rate while Washington boasts a winning percentage of roughly 77%. As a result, the Crimson Tide are selected at this spot.
Alabama gives away no points to any teams who are still waiting to be selected.
While there are other teams around the country who have more Kolas points than Washington at this point our selection process, those programs are not yet eligibile to be selected (or because we will select them later to avoid a "push" scenario).
However, with four Kolas points and no other teams tied with Washington, the UW men are now selected to the national meet.
Washington gives away one point to Oregon and Portland (via Nuttycombe).
Now that we can avoid a "push" scenario -- since the Washington men have qualified -- the Oregon men are comfortably selected to advance to the national meet with six Kolas points.
The Ducks give away one point to Portland (via Nuttycombe).
The Michigan men are the next team to be selected to the national meet. They hold three Kolas points which is the most points of any eligible team that has not yet been selected.
The Wolverines give away one point to Portland, Utah State, Colorado State and Duke (via Nuttycombe) as well as Montana State, Charlotte, Butler and Cal Poly (via Joe Piane).
Now things start to get interesting.
Montana State, Duke, Colorado State and Butler are all tied with three Kolas points and are all eligible to be selected to the national meet.
Duke lost to Colorado State at Nuttycombe, so they are not selected.
Colorado State lost to Montana State at the Mountain Regional XC Championships, so they are not selected.
Butler lost to Montana State at Joe Piane and at Pre-Nationals, so they are not selected.
With Montana State remaining as the only team not to have a head-to-head loss among this group, the Bobcats are now selected to advance to the national meet.
Montana State gives away no points to any teams who are still waiting to be selected.
The Utah State men are actually the next eligible that could be selected with five Kolas points. However, the Colorado State men finished ahead of them on Friday, meaning that the Rams would have to be "pushed" into the national meet if Utah State also advanced.
However, the NCAA wants to avoid these "push" scenarios whenever possible. And since we can calculate that Utah State will get in on their own, we will set them aside for now.
Let's go back to our our head-to-head tie-breakers between Duke, Butler and Colorado State.
Duke lost to Colorado State at Nuttycombe, so they are not selected.
However, Butler and Colorado State have not raced each other this season, meaning that we need to go through another common opponents exercise.
When comparing common opponents, we see that Colorado State has a rough 52% win rate while the Butler men only have a winning percentage of roughly 42%. As a result, the Rams get the nod and our 11th at-large bid.
Colorado State gives away one point to California Baptist and Michigan State (via Griak Invitational) as well as one point to Portland and Utah State (via Nuttycombe).
With Colorado State finally selected, we can now advance the Utah State men to the national meet without enforcing a "push" scenario. The Aggies have six Kolas points, the most of any team that is eligible to be selected.
Utah State gives away one point to Portland.
Duke and Butler are both tied with three Kolas points. There are no other eligible teams with the same or greater amount of Kolas points.
Neither team has faced each other this season. This means that we must go to the common opponents tie-breaker once more.
After comparing the common opponents, we have found that Butler holds a rough 61% win rate while the Duke men hold a rough 59% win rate.
Based on those calculations, the Bulldogs will advance to the NCAA XC Championships.
*NOTE: We should say that there were multiple instances where the algorithm was updated and that this common opponent situation was double checked. In each of those instances, while slightly different, Butler won this tie-breaking scenario every time.
A big thank you to Bo Waggoner who took the time to double check this scenario.
If the Kolas scenario kept going, Butler would give one point to California Baptist (via Pre-Nationals), one point to Providence (via the BIG East XC Championships) and one point to Charlotte (via Joe Piane).
Despite Portland holding 10 Kolas points, the Pilots were never eligible to qualify. The NCAA will only ever entertain the top-two non-qualified teams in each region for the national meet.
And since California Baptist and Boise State both finished ahead of Portland, and neither of those teams have qualified, the Pilots were never given a chance to advance.
Instead, we are left with Duke and California Baptist for our theoretical, non-existent 14th spot. They each have three Kolas points. Other teams may have the same amount of points or more, but with only one spot left, Duke and CBU are the only two teams who could be considered as the "First Team Out".
However, Duke and CBU never faced each other this fall. This means that we, yet again, have to do common opponents.
When comparing common opponents, we see that California Baptist has a rough 73% win rate while the Duke men only have a winning percentage of roughly 57%. As a result, the Lancers are, unfortunately, officially our First Team Out of the national meet.
*NOTE: This final section was done by hand and not calculated via a computer program.
*TEAMS IN BOLD INDICATE AUTO-LOCKS*
1. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
2. Ohio State Buckeyes
3. Michigan Wolverines
4. Michigan State Spartans
5. Wisconsin Badgers
6. Toledo Rockets
7. Indiana Hoosiers
1. Georgetown Hoyas
2. West Virginia Mountaineers
3. Penn Quakers
4. Princeton Tigers
1. Oklahoma State Cowgirls
2. Northwestern Wildcats
3. Bradley Braves
4. Iowa State Cyclones
1. New Mexico Lobos
2. Utah Utes
3. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
4. Colorado State Rams
5. Colorado Buffaloes
6. BYU Cougars
7. Utah Valley Wolverines
8. Utah State Aggies
9. Air Force Falcons
10. Wyoming Cowgirls
1. Providence Friars
2. Syracuse Orange
3. Columbia Lions
4. Harvard Crimson
1. Alabama Crimson Tide
2. Florida State Seminoles
3. Ole Miss Rebels
4. Lipscomb Bison
1. Arkansas Razorbacks
2. Texas Longhorns
3. LSU Tigers
4. Texas A&M Aggies
1. NC State Wolfpack
2. North Carolina Tar Heels
3. Virginia Cavaliers
4. Furman Paladins
5. Duke Blue Devils
6. Kentucky Wildcats
1. Stanford Cardinal
2. Oregon Ducks
3. Washington Huskies
4. Oregon State Beavers
5. California Baptist Lancers
6. Boise State Broncos
The NAU women are the clear pick to take our first at-large bid to the national meet. The Lumberjacks defeated the auto-lock teams a total of 13 times this fall. The BYU women also have 13 Kolas points, but they cannot yet be selected.
The Northern Arizona women give away no points to any remaining teams who are still waiting to be selected.
Colorado has the next-most points with 12 Kolas points.
However, they finished 5th in their region, one spot behind Colorado State. In theory, the Buffaloes could "push" the Rams into the national meet, but the NCAA wants to avoid "push" scenarios whenever possible.
And since we can calculate that Colorado will eventually get in on their own, they are not yet selected for this second at-large spot.
This leaves Michigan and Michigan State with five Kolas points each. They are the next two teams with the most Kolas points that are eligible to be selected.
Michigan State beat Michigan once at Nuttycombe and once at the BIG 10 XC Championships. Michigan, meanwhile, only beat Michigan State once at the Great Lakes XC Regional Championships.
In theory, Michigan State would be selected. However, because Michigan finished ahead of them in their region, the Spartans would have had to "push" in the Wolverines.
Since we can determine that Michigan State will qualify for the national meet later in the selection process without implementing a "push" scenario, they are not selected at this spot.
Instead, the Michigan women are selected for our second at-large bid.
They give two Kolas points to Michigan State (via Nuttycombe and BIG 10 XC Championships) and two points to BYU, Colorado, Utah Valley and Washington (via Nuttycombe and Cowboy Jamboree). The Wolverines also give one point to Toledo, Wisconsin and Colorado State (via Nuttycombe).
With seven Kolas points, the Michigan State women can now be selected as they earn the third at-large bid to the national meet. They have the most Kolas points of any team that is eligible to be selected in this stage of our selection process, although BYU and Colorado have far more points.
With their selection, the Michigan State women give one point to California Baptist (via Griak Invitational) and one point to BYU, Colorado, Toledo, Wisconsin, Washington and Colorado State (via Nuttycombe).
The BYU and Colorado women are still waiting to be selected despite having a ton of Kolas points. However, at this stage in our selection process, the next eligible team with the most Kolas points is Wisconsin who has a total of seven points.
They give one point to California Baptist and Colorado State (via Griak Invitational) as well as one point to BYU, Colorado and Toledo (via Nuttycombe).
With Wisconsin now selected and both BYU and Colorado still waiting to advance, the Toledo women are the next team selected to the national meet. They have seven Kolas points, the most points of any eligible team that is waiting to be selected.
With the Rockets now qualified for the national meet, they give one point to Illinois (via John McNichols Invite), Liberty (via Joe Piane) and BYU and Colorado (via Nuttycombe).
While Colorado and BYU continue to have the most points, it is Washington and Colorado State who are the next two teams that could be selected. They each have seven Kolas points.
However, since Washington beat Colorado State at Nuttycombe this year in their only head-to-head matchup, the Huskies are the next team selected to the national meet.
The UW women give three points to Colorado (via Cowboy Jamboree, Nuttycombe and PAC-12 XC Championships), two points to BYU (via Cowboy Jamboree and Nuttycombe) and one point to Utah Valley (via Cowboy Jamboree).
With Washington now selected, this leaves Colorado State as the next eligible team that can advance to the national meet. They still hold the seven Kolas points as we mentioned above.
With the Rams advancing to the national meet, they give one point to California Baptist (via Griak Invitational) and one point to both BYU and Colorado (via Nuttycombe).
The Colorado women can now be selected for the national meet as they no longer are in a scenario where they would "push" in Colorado State. However, they are tied at 21 points with BYU, the second eligible team that finished behind the Buffaloes on Friday.
Although BYU beat Colorado at both Nuttycombe and the Cowboy Jamboree, therefore winning the tie-breaker to advance to the national meet, we don't want to implement a "push" scenario if we can avoid it. As a result, the Colorado women are the next team selected to advance to the national meet.
They give two points to BYU (via Cowboy Jamboree and Nuttycombe).
We can now finally select the BYU women who have a whopping 23 points.
They give away no points to any remaining teams who are still waiting to be selected.
The Utah Valley women have the most Kolas points of any team not yet selected to the national meet with five points. As a result, they are picked to advance to the national meet.
They away one point to California Baptist (via WAC XC Championships) and one point to Utah State (via Paul Short).
The California Baptist women have the most Kolas points of any team not yet selected to the national meet with five points. However, they lost to Oregon State on Friday, a team that finished one spot ahead of them.
At this stage in our selection process, Oregon State has zero Kolas points and would not get into the national meet on their own.
However, because California Baptist can't advance to the national meet without the team ahead of them also qualifying for the national meet, we now have a "push" scenario.
The Oregon State women are "pushed" into the national meet thanks to CBU. And because they were pushed into the national meet, they don't give away any Kolas points.
CBU gives away no points to any remaining teams who are still waiting to be selected.
The Virginia women have the most Kolas points of any team not yet selected to the national meet with three points. As a result, they are picked to advance to the national meet.
UVA gives away no points to any remaining teams who were not selected.
In a theoretical scenario where there was a 14th national qualifying spot (there's not), we have the Furman women listed as the First Team Out.
They hold two Kolas points AND are the next team in-line to be selected out of their region. No other team in our calculations can say both of those things, meaning that the Paladins will sit on the outside looking in.