Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
Jul 14, 20228 min
Our Division Two crew is hard at work crafting their individual and team rankings, leaving me to keep the site afloat with content while that happens. And while they are doing their research, I thought I would just jot down a bunch of random D2 cross country thoughts.
Let's begin...
NOTE: TFRRS is used as a general guide when discussing eligibility and returners. It is possible that someone's anticipated eligibility for this upcoming cross country season isn't properly listed on TFRRS. While certain athletes and teams will be mentioned in this article, please note that any omissions should not indicate a negative view of the omitted athletes or teams in questions. There are only so many teams and athletes that we can mention.
Alright, so what do we think about the Grand Valley State men? They are the defending team champions after scoring 43 points at the NCAA XC Championships last fall to secure the win over Adams State by 41 points.
Losing Isaac Harding is a massive blow, but the Lakers lose more than just him. Woldemichael, Lee and Becker are all expected to be gone and that is a ton of scoring value that is now out the door. In fact, that's not just a ton of scoring potency, but it's also a lot of veteran experience as well.
The good news is that there is still a promising core of men to rally around at GVSU. Chada is a title contender, Futter is probably an All-American talent and Hylen is much better than some people realize after placing 12th at last year's national meet.
The Lakers always have great depth, but in a year where Adams State and Colorado Mines are expected to have noticeably better depth, GVSU will really need to dig deep into their roster to find more scoring weapons.
But let's shift the focus of our conversation to those two aforementioned teams: Adams State and Colorado Mines. These are the two teams that will likely be in the national title conversation this fall...but their stories go deeper than that.
The Grizzlies return six of their top-seven from last year, including three cross country All-Americans as well as two others who barely missed out on the same honor. Almost all of those names were incredibly young in 2021, meaning that natural progression should favor them quite a bit in 2022.
Unfortunately, losing Carson Bix will be a challenge. The newest member of the Lee Flames placed 7th at last year's NCAA XC Championships, meaning that there is a major low-stick hole that needs to be filled.
Luckily for the men from Alamosa, Colorado, they immediately added new firepower to their roster before the school year even ended.
I am, of course, talking about Nebraska graduate transfer Dais Malebana.
The former BIG 10 standout was exceptional during his time with the Huskers, running times of 3:39 for 1500 meters, 8:00 for 3000 meters and 14:04 for 5000 meters. On the grass, he placed 19th at the 2021 BIG 10 Winter XC Championships before faltering a bit last fall.
When Malebana is at his best, he can likely mimic the same scoring potency that Bix has left behind. His is a massive addition to this Adams State roster who not only keeps this team in national title contention, but maybe even makes them the title favorites as well.
But the other title favorites, Colorado Mines, will likely have something to say about that.
Last year, the Orediggers placed 3rd as a team at the national meet. They lost to both GVSU and Adams State and only had five runners cross the line.
There is, however, more to that story.
Colorado Mines was the most dominant team in D2 throughout last fall. In the eyes of many, they were going to win the national title. They destroyed their competition at the Chile Pepper XC Festival and later went on to comfortably win the 2021 RMAC title over Adams State.
However, at the national meet, they only scored 123 points, 39 points behind Adams State and 80 points behind Grand Valley State.
But what you have to keep in mind is that Dillon Powell, an individual title contender, recorded a DNF result while Duncan Fuehne, a very promising up-and-comer, was also a DNF.
If those two men ran to their fullest potential at least year's national meet, then you're looking at the Orediggers flirting with gold.
Now, that said, Colorado Mines does have Dylan Ko and Jake Mitchem listed as seniors in last year's results. It's admittedly unclear if those two veterans are actually done with their eligibility, but TFRRS leads us to believe that they are done.
But even if they don't come back, the Orediggers should still be one of the best in the country and they'll likely be the biggest and best challenger to the Adams State men come November.
Alright, let's switch this conversation to the women's team title picture.
If you're not a fan of Adams State, then I have some not-so-great news for you.
The Grizzlies aren't just favorites to win the cross country national title this fall. They are (probably) also favored to win the national title for the next two to three years.
The Adams State women won last year's title with 59 points, beating a very good Grand Valley State team by 20 points. The Grizzlies secured five All-Americans in the top-21 spots, a sixth All-American in the top-35 and a seventh runner who finished in the top-50.
That's just an unreal level of firepower and depth.
Not only that, but the Adams State women don't lose anyone from their top-seven. In fact, so many of those women were so young last fall that there's a good chance they actually improve in 2022 just based on general maturity that comes with age.
That's a scary thing to think about if you're an RMAC rival...
If there is any team in the country that could potentially give the Adams State women a scare this fall, then it's likely last year's runner-up team, Grand Valley State.
The Lakers were only 20 points behind Adams State at last year's national meet and in a world where a few small things go poorly for the Grizzlies, then we're talking about the women from Allendale, Michigan taking home team gold.
And unlike the GVSU men, there is actually a very realistic path for their women's team to secure the national title in November once again...maybe.
The Stride Report has confirmed that both Hannah Becker, the 2021 individual cross country national champion, and Lucy Karpukhno, the 43rd place finisher from last year's national meet, are not returning to GVSU.
This leaves Grand Valley State with four returning All-Americans, including one who could contend for the national title. While those two aforementioned departures are far from ideal, bringing back four highly talented All-Americans could be enough at least keep the Lakers in the title conversation.
Still, depth has never hurt any team before and right now, the GVSU women don't necessarily have a complete lineup, at least on paper they don't.
Make no mistake, Coach Baltes has a history of developing new All-American-caliber talents out of nowhere and there's no reason to believe that he can't do that again in 2022. But can that fifth runner be enough to close out a title-contending lineup? I guess we'll see...
Before we go, let's just chat about a few other teams who I feel deserve some attention.
Wingate feels like one of the most underappreciated teams in D2 right now. Their men's team placed 6th at the national meet last year while their women's team placed 5th. That's impressive stuff for a team that hasn't historically always been at the same level as many of these RMAC powerhouses (plus GVSU).
But in 2022, the Bulldog men return six of their top-seven from their 2021 national meet lineup. And while they do lose a 54th place finisher (their second scorer), Wingate also introduces Mount Olive transfer Cas Kopmels to their lineup.
In theory, Kopmels could be a backend All-American with the proper progression.
Still, Wingate has a lot of collective improvement that they need to make as a team before they can get on the podium. Their top finisher at last year's national meet, Oliver Way, earned a strong 45th place finish, but he can't be the team's best scorer (at that fitness level) if they want to be amongst the top-four teams in D2 this fall.
The Wingate men need to have at least one All-American, likely two and maybe three, to finish as a top-four team. And on paper, they just don't have that firepower right now.
That said, last year's team was very young and much like the Adams State women, their general maturity and improved age could naturally lead to overall improvement.
That's just a theory that I came up with in my head, but it makes sense to me.
As for the Wingate women, they were 11 points out from the 4th place Colorado Mines women last fall at the cross country national meet. And when you look at last year's youth-based lineup, it's hard not to get excited about their potential in 2022.
Much like their men's team, the Wingate women also lose one runner from last year's lineup. However, that scorer wasn't as impactful (on paper) as the men's lost scorer. The Bulldogs still return a stunning 5th place national meet finisher in Laura Orrock as well as their final 2021 cross country All-American Finja Schierl.
Not only that, but the Wingate women had three freshmen, one sophomore and one senior make up their top-five (per TFRRS) at last year's national meet. Their final two runners were both sophomores.
The amount of upside that the Wingate women have this year is tremendous. They can only go up and they already have a nice nucleus of All-American-caliber runners that they can build around.
Wingate still needs to close down on scoring gaps and they need to add more concrete firepower to the top-end of this lineup. Plus, throughout the fall of 2021, it didn't look like they totally knew who was going to in their top-seven.
Still, this is an exciting team that will be fascinating to watch over the next few months.
Alright, before I get too carried away, let's wrap this up with a few additional comments about one of the best programs in the country: Augustana.
Augustana was just fantastic last fall. The men placed 4th at the NCAA XC Championships and the women placed 3rd. Now, admittedly, the Vikings weren't all that close to the next-best team at the national meet, but this was a massive step forward in the right direction after sitting on the fringe of the elite tier for a while.
The men return everyone from last year with the exception of Austin Miller (per TFRRS). Admittedly, losing Miller's scoring will hurt, but his departure isn't going to completely set this team back...or at least it shouldn't.
Last year's team featured numerous sophomores and juniors. So while the general progression that comes with youth won't be theoretically as significant for the Viking men as it will be the Adam State women or the Wingate men and women, we should still see some promising development.
The only uncertainty we have is whether or not those improvements will be enough to improve spot from last year.
As for the Augustana women, they are in a unique situation. According to TFRRS, they return their top-four runners from last year's national meet -- all of whom were All-Americans.
However, on the flip side, the final three runners of 2021 their varsity lineup are now gone. As a result, the Augustana women are going to be left with tons of firepower, but very little certainty as to how they are going to close out their scoring.
This is a much better team than some people realize. If Adams State and/or Grand Valley State don't have their best day at the national meet in November, and Augustana improves upon their 2021 finishes while finding a fifth All-American, then we could see the Vikings finishing as high as 2nd place in November.
Again, a lot needs to go right in order for that to happen, but it's possible.