2022 Boston University Sharon Colyear-Danville Season Opener Preview

Ladies and gentlemen, the indoor track season has begun...even though the D2 cross country campaign won't wrap up until Friday. But one day after the D2 NCAA XC Championships, one of the best distance-centric indoor track meets in the country will be held in the northeast.

I am, of course, talking about the Boston University Sharon Colyear-Danville Season Opener.

The December-time indoor track meet, which will be hosted on what is arguably the fastest indoor track in the world, is the most stacked that it has ever been in the 3000 meters and the 5000 meters...and we've got a preview for it!

Also, we're only going to highlight the collegiates in this field and only mention the pros when necessary. There's only so much space in one article (which isn't true, we can write for an infinite amount of time) and we're a collegiate running website so...ya know.

Let's dive in, shall we?

Katelyn Tuohy is entered in this race.

Good night!

That's it!

That's the preview!

But in all seriousness, I couldn't be more interested in what Katelyn Tuohy does this weekend. She was basically untested throughout the entirety of this past cross country season and even though Parker Valby made her work for that individual national title, it was clear that the NC State star was/is on a different level.

There's a very real chance that Tuohy could snag the NCAA indoor 5k record, a mark of 15:12.22 set by Providence legend Emily Sisson back in 2015. The overall record, which includes 300 meter indoor tracks, sits at 15:01 (via Jenny Simpson, née Barringer), but official NCAA indoor records aren't eligible to be broken on oversized tracks.

With a personal best of 15:14 from last spring, there's a very realistic chance that Tuohy walks away with the official women's indoor 5k record. One could argue that the Wolfpack star is more fit than she was last spring and you could also argue that cross country fitness is more conducive to success for the time trial type of environment that we will likely see on Saturday.

And the best part is that there are numerous pro runners in this field who will likely be able to hang with a blistering-fast pace better than a lot of the other collegiates in this field. Women such as Marielle Hall, Aisha Praught-Leer, Annie Rodenfels and Eleanor Fulton all have sub-15:20 personal bests and those first three women all have sub-15:10 marks on their resumes.

Are all of these pro runners going to be at the absolute peak of their all-time fitness? No, probably not, but at least one or two of them should be able to help Tuohy chase this record.

But truthfully, even with the star power in this field, Tuohy still feels like the favorite to win. I could be wrong on my assessment of the professional talents in this field, but I don't think I'm making an absurd statement.

The only question that remains is...how fast will she run?

As for the other women in this field, let's chat about Mercy Chelangat, Lauren Gregory and Kelsey Chmiel. All three of those women, in addition to Tuohy, have the potential to drop under the 15:20 barrier on Saturday.

And although that sounds like an absurdly fast mark for all of those women to hit, I would argue that it's actually plenty realistic. Let's not forget, if you include an unattached talent in Taylor Werner (who was still enrolled at Arkansas at the time), there were actually three collegiates at the 2019 rendition of this meet who ran faster than 15:15.

And in an era where everyone seems to be flat-out faster, it's not ridiculous to think that aerobic-centric, long distance grinders like Mercy Chelangat and Kelsey Chmiel could dip under 15:20. After all, Chelangat has already earned a 15:17 personal best in this discipline, although that was run on the outdoor oval.

However, when looking at the Chelangat, Chmiel and Gregory trio, I think I feel the best about Chmiel. Not just because she was the top woman from that group at the most recent NCAA XC Championships, but also because this race setting likely favors her strengths as a runner. The Wolfpack veteran will (probably) also have some kind of idea as to how teammate Katelyn Tuohy will control this race from the front.

Gregory is extremely talented, and there's no reason to suggest that she can't be the second-best collegiate on Saturday. However, Gregory has never run under 15:20 and she is arguably better in championship-style races -- which the BU Season Opener almost certainly won't be.

We also don't really know what to expect from Gregory after she did not race this past fall due to, what we believe, is expired eligibility.

And then we come to the wild cards in this field: Natalie Cook, Hilda Olemomoi and Elise Stearns.

Is it ridiculous to say that Cook and Olemomoi are two of the most naturally talented collegiates in this field? Maybe outside of Tuohy, I don't think there is anyone else in this field with as much raw firepower and upside.

Of course, with that raw, excitingly volatile, youth-based talent also comes uncertainty. Sure, both Cook and Olemomoi gained valuable experience this past fall, contested many top-heavy fields and thrived in competitive scenarios.

But this is a different season and a different setting.

Saturday's race will be about maximizing one's current fitness rather than focusing on positioning. And in a race environment without much physical room to move around, that can easily rattle runners who are inexperienced, meaning that younger runners like Cook and Olemomoi could be at a disadvantage.

And yet, at the same time, it feels like we're still looking for what Cook and Olemomoi's underclassman ceiling is. I don't think they have yet to truly find the cap on their potential this year and I think there is enough evidence to suggest that this field may actually appeal to the high upside talent of these two women.

When it comes to Elise Stearns, we have far more questions than answers. The Northern Arizona superstar, who had a breakout season this past fall and recently finished 4th at the cross country national meet, enters Saturday's race with a personal best of 15:55.

In theory, that PR should drop by a lot...right?

But by how much? How seamlessly will Stearns' improved fitness from the grass translate over to the track? How much of a personal best would be unrealistic to suggest?

If Stearns ran sub-15:30, then I wouldn't be shocked. If she was flirting with the 15:20 barrier, then yeah, that would peak my interest a bit more. However, I would also be totally unsurprised if she settled for a mark somewhere in the 15:40s range.

In other words, your guesses about how well Stearns could/will run this weekend are probably just as valid as mine.

It's a very similar story for Emily Venters who has never looked as good as she did this past fall.

Although the Utah ace ran 15:47 for 5000 meters last spring, and owns a 15:45 personal best from her Boise State days, her campaign on the grass over the last three months suggests that she's due for a performance under 15:40.

But just how far under 15:40 will she go? We know that she'll be much-improved fitness-wise compared to last spring (or even compared to her freshman year), but how much of that leap in fitness will translate to the indoor oval?

We wrap up this heat with Gracelyn Larkin, the New Mexico star who has run 15:29 for 5000 meters and who finished 26th at the NCAA XC Championships a couple of weeks ago.

This Lobo ace feels like one of the women with the highest floors coming into Saturday's race, meaning that we don't really see her having a truly poor result. She often delivers in high-level settings and you could argue that her All-American result in Stillwater, Oklahoma wasn't even one of her top-two results from the fall.

I'm not entirely confident that Larkin is going to crack 15:30, but I would be surprised if she didn't run under the 15:40 barrier.

Look, heat two of the women's 5k isn't going to be nearly as top-heavy as the first heat, but it's arguably just as deep, maybe even deeper, relative to the talent in the field.

Based strictly on personal bests, one could argue that NC State's Sydney Seymour is favored to emerge as the top collegiate in this field with her 15:34 PR. However, the Wolfpack standout has been a little shaky in her last few efforts on the grass.

Seymour ran well at Joe Piane and Nuttycombe back in September and October, but was only 29th at the ACC XC Championships and then 98th at the NCAA XC Championships.

We don't entirely know what to expect from Seymour going into Saturday's race, but it's not like her talent just disappeared. She was running well earlier this fall and with her toeing the line just two weeks after the national meet, it doesn't seem like there's any intent for her to hit the reset button before going into winter break.

There is clearly fitness within her that Coach Laurie Henes wants to capitalize on.

But if you had to ask myself or my fellow podcast co-host, Ben Weisel, about this field, then we would say that New Mexico's Amelia Mazza-Downie is probably the safest name to pick in this heat. She's run 15:37 (twice) -- which is still one of the faster personal bests in this field -- most recently finished 22nd at the cross country national meet and was a backend All-American in this event at last year's indoor national meet.

Mazza-Downie is probably the best all-around 5k runner in this heat, but...is she the most fit? Or at least, the most capable of capitalizing on her fitness?

Like we said earlier, this is going to be a time trial scenario, and while we do have a few instances of this New Mexico ace thriving in these kind of races, we'll be interested to see how she handles the rest of this field.
 

Speaking of which, you could also argue that Arkansas' Isabel Van Camp benefits the most out of the women in this heat when talking about the transition from the grass to the track.

The Razorback star was fantastic this past fall and was so much better than what her 48th place finish at the cross country national meet suggested. She was arguably more of a 1500 meter runner than a 3k or 5k specialist throughout most of last year. However, she then moved up to the 5k late in the spring and ended up becoming an All-American with a 15:35 personal best.

Van Camp is a dangerous name who is probably better than some may give her credit for. And while I'm not convinced that she'll win this heat, it's very possible that her ability to thrive on the track will give her a big-time result.

I also really like Furman's Bethany Graham. She may not have the turnover of Van Camp, the national accolades of Mazza-Downie, the cross country dominance of Venters or the personal best of Sydney Seymour -- but she's just so. darn. solid.

Graham was fairly consistent throughout the entirety of this past fall and has seemingly taken a step up in 2022, benefitting in a big way from her gained experience over the last couple of years. I would expect a big improvement upon her 15:57 personal best and I would estimate that she's somewhere in low-15:40s shape...maybe even slightly better.

The further you go down the list you go, the more we begin to scratch our heads. There are clearly tons of talented women in this race, and a few of them could be due for breakout performances, but who will those women be? And which women are going to essentially match what their current personal bests already suggest that they are capable of?

Stanford's Lucy Jenks has run 15:41 for 5000 meters, but she hasn't raced at that kind of level on a consistent basis.

New Mexico's Emma Heckel has also run 15:41 (which she ran at this meet last year) and was highly ranked in our preseason cross country list. But the Lobo star didn't have quite the same spark this fall that she did in previous seasons and has only ever run under 15:50 once.

North Carolina's Kelsey Harrington and Syracuse's Savannah Roark both had breakout cross country seasons, specifically at the national meet, but how will that success translate (if at all) when they toe the line for what could be an ultra-fast race on Saturday?

Georgetown's Maggie Donahue didn't blow us away this past fall, but she was so consistent and peaked for the postseason yet again. If she's in the prime of her fitness like her appearance at the cross country national meet would suggest, then what can she do on Saturday as she enters the race with a 15:45 personal best?

BYU's Aubrey Frentheway ended her 2022 cross country season with a strong 32nd place finish, but her entire fall campaign suggested that she was probably closer to a top-20 talent, nationally. She has run 15:52 for 5000 meters, but her cross country season (and truthfully, most of her career) suggests that she is someone who can run in the 15:40s. She's due for a big race.

Stanford's Zofia Dudek has never toed the line for a collegiate race on the track despite this being her third year in the NCAA. She was fantastic this fall, placing 20th at the national meet and is likely due for a big performance.

Of course, it's hard to know exactly what to expect from her when there really isn't much history of hers to analyze, at least not on the oval. In fact, there is ZERO collegiate history for Dudek on the track, making us a little unsure as to how she'll handle this kind of field on a crowded indoor oval on Saturday.

There are still a ton of other women who we didn't mention in this heat who could have a breakout race and make us look silly...but I think we got most/all of the expected contenders.

I don't think there has ever been a race that better suits Nico Young than what we'll see on Saturday. The BU Season Opener is a meet that almost always turns into a time trial in the 5000 meters and those are the exact type of races that Nico Young has been best in throughout his career.

With a personal best of 13:11, which was run in a time trial setting at the Sound Running Track Meet last spring, the cross country national meet runner-up seems primed to not only win this race, but to potentially scare the national record.

Now, I'll be honest, trying to break a 13:08 collegiate record set by Lawi Lalang is going to be a ridiculously challenging task no matter who we're talking about. And if we're reading these entries correctly, it looks like the goal pace is going to be around 13:15, well off from the NCAA record.

Even so, the NAU superstar is probably the most fit that he's ever been, as evidenced by the entirety of his cross country season. And while Young's tactical prowess still needs refinement, I can't imagine that he'll need to do anything other than just sit on a fast pace and see how far it takes him.

However, unlike the women's race, Young is probably the class of this field despite only being a collegiate. The pro runners who are in heat one, which aren't many, are simply not as accomplished as the Lumberjack standout.

There are also a handful of names who are plenty capable of winning this race if Young isn't firing on all cylinders.

Washington's Brian Fay is arguably the most complete 5k runner in this field. He has run 13:16 for the distance, has showed off one of the most lethal kicks of any main contender in this event, has flexed incredible versatility across a variety of distances and probably peaked better than almost anyone in the NCAA at the cross country national meet relative to expectations.

A time trial scenario probably favors Young better than it does Fay, but the prescribed pace isn't entirely out of reach for the Washington star and it's hard to deny that Fay is better on the track than he is on the grass.

But for a race like this, could Stanford's Ky Robinson actually be the better choice? He may be a better pure 5k runner in comparison to Fay and his ability to thrive in a handful of super-fast paced races over 5k and 10k is well documented.

With a personal best of 13:20, an indoor national meet victory over Young and a win at the 2021 Husky Classic, there's a very real possibility that Robinson could win this race on Saturday. I would even argue that this all-out, hard-from-the-gun racing style may actually benefit him more than it would Fay.

And after seeing Robinson take home the win over Young at the Nuttycombe Invite, I don't think it would be ridiculous to suggest that this Stanford ace could win it all on Saturday.

Of course, it wouldn't be a highly competitive race if we weren't subtly insulting Alex Maier by simply overlooking him as a main contender. The Oklahoma State megastar has looked incredible ever since his runner-up finish at the NCAA Outdoor Championships in the 10k last spring. On the grass, he won the Cowboy Jamboree and effectively validated his fitness jump with a top-five finish on the national stage two weeks ago.

Maier feels like someone who boasts the greatest strengths of both Ky Robinson and Brian Fay. He has the raw fitness to hold onto aggressive paces, but his versatility allows him to strategically position himself for success in competitive fields such as this.

This race would need to play out perfectly for him, but there's absolutely a scenario where he walks away with an early-season win which may end up being the best regular season win of the season.

However, the one person who may actually benefit the most from this all-out, time trial-type race setting, other than Nico Young, may be his teammate, Drew Bosley.

While we didn't necessarily predict Bosley to be the 3rd place finisher at the NCAA XC Championships the other weekend, we were correct in our assessment prior to the national meet when we said that he looked the best that he ever has in his career.

And when you pair the clear refinement of Bosley's aerobic ability with his history of running well in aggressively-paced races such as the Sound Running Track Meet, the 2022 NCAA XC Championships and last year's BU Season Opener 5k race, I can't help but wonder if he should get the nod as the second-best contender in this field.

It's a very similar story for BYU's Casey Clinger who has done very well in races that are strictly focused on pace. I would argue that this Cougar veteran is, much like Young, one of the best aerobic-centric distance runners in the country.

I don't know if I can convincingly say that Clinger is at the same level as some of the other guys whom I have already mentioned, but he's not far off and he does seem to have a fairly high floor. I don't think there are too many situations where I see him having a poor race on Saturday.

I am also a HUGE fan of Washington's Kieran Lumb. I think he's one of the most dynamic distance runners in the country and he looked like he was going to be a major problem last winter before sustaining an injury.

Lumb has thrived on this track before (in the 3000 meters) and has crazy-good range, arguably just as good as Fay's, minus the steeplechase prowess.

If this race is fast from the gun, I'm not sure if I see Lumb matching the raw talent of someone like Nico Young. But if this race hovers around 13:19 or 13:20, then I could realistically see this Husky star making some serious noise.

It's also tough to know exactly where Kieran Lumb sits right now in terms of his fitness. He doesn't have cross country eligibility, so it's tough to know what to expect from him. While we do have good reason to believe that he'll be a sub-13:30 guy on Saturday, knowing where in the mix of top contenders he fits in with is a challenging exercise.

Other guys like Butler's Barry Keane, BYU's Brandon Garnica and the Harvard duo of Acer Iverson and Graham Blanks should theoretically post strong results in this kind of setting. All four of those men are upper-tier, long distance-centric talents who often fare well in fast races.

Three of those four guys have personal bests that sit under 13:30 for 5000 meters and the only guy who doesn't, Graham Blanks, was the highest finisher at the NCAA XC Championships out of all of them via a 6th place result.

In theory, or at least in my own head, this race should favor the aerobic strength of all four of these men...but history says that not everyone is going run under 13:30 on Saturday.

In fact, I would have said last year that Air Force's Sam Gilman wasn't going to run sub-13:30 going into this exact same meet...and then he ran 13:25.

Gilman has always struck me as more of a mile and 3k runner, but his 5k personal best is probably the most impressive mark on his resume and his best result is probably a 6th place All-American finish in this event at the NCAA Outdoor Championships last spring.

So...yeah, maybe I'm just wrong.

Gilman also seems to be do better when I begin to doubt him. And after seeing him fall outside of the top-50 at the NCAA XC Championships two weeks ago, along with a somewhat up and down cross country season as a whole, I may have questions about him running sub-13:30 again on Saturday.

But I can already imagine writing our "First Thoughts" article and talking about how dumb I was to doubt someone of his caliber.

The last three collegiate men in this heat are Parker Wolfe, Isai Rodriguez and Fouad Messaoudi...and I don't entirely know what to expect from this trio.

Wolfe was beyond awesome this fall, clearly taking a step upwards in his fitness and emerging as a true nationally elite distance talent. But much like we mentioned with Elise Stearns and Emily Venters in the women's sections, we don't entirely know how easily Wolfe will translate his cross country prowess to the track.

Rodriguez was clearly at his best at the national meet two weeks ago after a delayed start to his season. But it's also clear that this Oklahoma State veteran is at his best on the grass rather than the track and if he is going to thrive on the oval, then it's most likely going to be in the 10,000 meters during the spring.

And then there's Messaoudi. He was originally listed in the 3000 meters, but has seemingly scratched that event based on the new entries that we have.

This Oklahoma State ace has always been good on the track, but after finishing 6th at the BIG 12 XC Championships in the fall, we couldn't have possibly expected him to finish 12th at the national meet two weeks ago.

What should we expect from Messaoudi during Saturday's race? He is rumored to have a 13:46 personal best prior to joining the Cowboys, although that mark is unconfirmed. It's also unclear how big of a jump he could make after his phenomenal result on his home course the other week.

Messaoudi will, unquestionably, be the biggest wild card in the field on Saturday.

Heat two of the men's 5000 meters should prove to be plenty exciting just like it was last year. There are numerous men who, on the right day, could end up running as fast as some of the guys listed in heat one.

Men like Athanas Kioko and Andrew Kent would likely be considered as the top collegiates in this field, but both of those guys are listed as unattached athletes, confirming suspicions that they no longer have eligibility, at least not for the indoor track season.

There are also a handful of men you could choose from in terms of being the "favorite" in this heat. However, if you had to make me choose, I'd probably lean Duncan Hamilton, the Montana State superstar has proven to be far more effective on the track compared to the grass.

Let's not forget that when it comes to the oval, Hamilton is one of the most well-rounded and most valuable long distance runners in the country. With personal bests of 3:39 (1500), 7:45 (3k), 13:30 (5k) and 8:19 (steeple), there is a legitimate argument to be made that Hamilton belongs in the first heat.

The Bobcat superstar has been unafraid to push the pace in certain meets and has often thrived in highly competitive environments. And in a heat where no one seems to have a resume as good as his, this could be a chance for him to make a statement and maybe set a new PR given that the prescribed goal pace is 13:25 (according to the entries that we have).

However, if you're not a fan of Hamilton for whatever reason, then I would implore you to consider Wisconsin's Jackson Sharp as your overall favorite for this heat.

The Badger ace was fantastic on the oval last winter and spring, running times of 7:48 (3k) and 13:33 (5k), the latter of which came in an unattached race in Dublin, Ireland back in July.

However, what really caught our attention was his recent 16th place finish at the NCAA XC Championships, a result that validated Sharp as a true national-caliber threat.

Sharp is an explosive and versatile talent who is clearly picking up massive momentum. He could be just as lethal as Hamilton and could be carried to another big performance on Saturday fresh off of a confidence-boosting national meet race.

And what about Aaron Las Heras? You could argue that he has an overall resume across all three seasons of competition that is arguably just as good as what Sharp and Hamilton boast.

The Wake Forest ace was fantastic last spring, running times of 3:41 (1500), 7:55 (3k), 13:38 (5k) and 28:13 (10k). Some of those marks may not be quite as fast as what Hamilton and Sharp have run, but Las Heras is clearly better in the longer distances and he just had the most complete cross country season of this entire group. He was 14th at the Cowboy Jamboree, 3rd at the ACC XC Championships and 26th at the NCAA XC Championships.

Las Heras is no stranger to fast, time-oriented races. Let's not forget, he won the Raleigh Relays' 10k title last spring, a race where 11 men ran under 28:30 and where 20 men ran under 29:00.

There are other men in this field who have proven to be just as talented and just as dangerous as Las Heras, Sharp and Hamilton, but it's also tough to know exactly what to expect out of some of these names.

James Mwaura, for instance, is a guy who has run 13:30 (5k) and 27:50 (10k). He is also at his best when a race is fast from the gun and focused on testing one's raw fitness, a style that could favor him during Saturday's contest.

However, Mwaura delayed the start to his 2022 cross country season until the West Coast Conference XC Championships and was clearly not at 100% after placing 101st at the national meet just a few days ago. What should we expect from him this weekend?

Zach Facioni had moments of brilliance this season and ended his season on a high note with a massive 20th place All-American finish. However, the Wake Forest ace was slightly up and down this past fall and didn't really wow us until the national meet.

Of course, with a resume on the track that's as strong as his, it's very possible that he puts his name in the mix with the top guys.

Guys like Ian Shanklin and Isaac Green have both run under 13:30 for 5000 meters in the past. Shanklin owns a personal best of 13:23 while Green has posted a mark of 13:27. However, we're not entirely confident that these men are near that kind of shape going into Saturday's race.

Yes, Shanklin did end his cross country season as an All-American and Green did prove to be a valuable scorer on the grass. However, Shanklin hasn't run faster than 13:35 in his last four attempts at this distance. Green did run 13:29 last spring, but his three other attempts have been no faster than 13:40.

Both of these men seem like they could dip under 13:40 this weekend. That doesn't seem unrealistic. However, seeing how close they get to sub-13:30 will be the more interesting development to monitor.

Other guys like Scott Beattie of Tulsa and Baldvin Magnusson of Eastern Michigan are key names to watch. Beattie has run 13:31 (5k), 28:19 (10k) and has been on a tear over the last year. Meanwhile, Magnusson has often thrived in these fast-paced fields where he simply has to rely on his raw fitness.

I really like both of these guys. They are so much better than some people realize, especially Magnusson who has run times of 3:58 (mile), 7:47 (3k) and 13:32 (5k). He has also been an All-American in the 3k before.

Another guy to keep an eye on is Abdirizak Ibrahim, a New Mexico star who is admittedly inconsistent, but can occasionally post huge results that make people say, "You know who's really underrated? That guy from New Mexico."

North Carolina's Jack Aho, a true veteran who excels on the grass, is also in this field and has run 13:39 (5k). Given that he didn't have cross country eligibility this past fall, it's hard to know exactly what kind of shape this Tar Heel runner is in, but he was able to sneak into this second heat which, as you can see, is certainly no joke.

There's a very real possibility that the women's 3k could be just as entertaining than the women's 5k race. That's because there are numerous star-caliber names headlining this field -- and because there may not be a clear-cut favorite.

West Virginia's Ceili McCabe, NC State's Sam Bush and Oklahoma State's Taylor Roe could give us one of the best matchups that we'll see all winter long. And truthfully, we're not totally convinced that the "favorites" in this field are confined to just those three women! But more on that in a moment...

When it comes to testing one's all-out aerobic fitness, McCabe is probably who benefits the most. She ran 8:52 in this same race last year and her best steeplechase time came at the NCAA Outdoor Championships last spring which turned out to be one of the fastest collegiate steeple races of all-time.

However, the one knock on McCabe is that she didn't have her best showing at the NCAA XC Championships, settling for 24th place a few weeks ago. And while an All-American result would make plenty of women very happy, that wasn't a performance that we expected to see out of a talent like McCabe who was, in the eyes of a few people, viewed as an outside title contender this past fall.

Meanwhile, Taylor Roe is the reigning 3k national champion, boasting personal bests of 4:33 (mile), 8:58 (3k) and 15:21 (5k). She is potentially the best all-around 3k runner in this field, but in a race that will test her true aerobic fitness rather than her tactics, I don't know if she will benefit from kind of setting as much as a few other women.

Of course, that is not to say that Roe can't win or that she won't run well.

The Cowgirl ace is probably the most experienced distance runner in this field and arguably the most consistent as well. However, she'll need to run somewhere along the lines of 8:55 to be in contention for gold, and while that is certainly possible for her, it's also going to be a challenging task.

And then there's Sam Bush, a brilliant distance talent who is probably dropping down to her ideal distance. The NC State standout may have been running in the shadow of Katelyn Tuohy and Kelsey Chmiel this past fall, but she has been exceptional throughout the entirety of the last year.

With an 8:54 personal best, which she ran at this exact meet last year, and a dynamic resume which is highlighted by times of 2:04 (800), 2:43 (1k), 4:13 (1500) and 15:35 (5k), Bush can absolutely win this race if everything goes her way. She has strong momentum from the grass and is just flat-out talented.

Of course, there are a handful of other women who could put themselves in the conversation to win this race on Saturday. Distance talents like Oregon State's Kaylee Mitchell and Alabama's Amaris Tyynismaa have been so dangerous on the track and their resumes suggest that they could be due for home run performances in the 3k.

Mitchell was a juggernaut on the grass this past fall, clearly stepping up her fitness after running 8:58 (3k) and 9:34 (steeple) earlier in 2022. And in a race that is going to be intentionally fast from the gun, this Beaver star might benefit the most out of the other top women in this field (based on her history).

Meanwhile, Tyynismaa has seemingly fully rebounded from an injury that kept her out for the entirety of the 2022 indoor track season. She rallied in the spring and has fully bounced back on the grass, especially after placing 9th at the NCAA XC Championships in Stillwater.

The Alabama star has largely built her reputation in the mile and the 1500 meters when it comes to performances on the track, but she has also thrived on the grass. In theory, her sweet spot is the 3000 meter distance and her overall resume suggests that she's due for a PR given that her current best mark in the event is 9:03.

And what about Maia Ramsden? The Harvard star was excellent in the 1500 meters and the mile during the winter and spring of 2022, but then reached a new tier this past fall, dominating her competition on the grass and later finishing 11th at the NCAA XC Championships.

Much like Tyynismaa, this Ivy League star is theoretically going to be at her best in the 3000 meters when balancing her mile credentials with her cross country accolades. However, Ramsden has also never toed the line for a 3000 meter race during her time with the Crimson.
 

Because of that, it's hard to know exactly how she'll respond in a field like this.

And what do we think about Olivia Markezich? She was excellent last winter, but then really reached a new level when she posted a time of 9:35 in the steeplechase. The Notre Dame star then got even better on the grass, most recently placing 8th at the NCAA XC Championships and peaking perfectly for the postseason.

Few women in this field have the same kind of momentum that Markezich does, although it's challenging to know exactly how her fitness from the grass will translate to the track. The Notre Dame ace is clearly due for an improvement on her 9:08 personal best, but by how much? And will this kind of race setting be beneficial to Markezich?

Lexy Halladay-Lowry from BYU also deserves some recognition, especially considering that she ran 9:02 (3k) at this exact meet last year and has clearly improved since then, recently posting an All-American finish at the cross country national meet.

Even so, I'm not sure if Halladay-Lowry is in the same tier as some of the other women that we've already mentioned, although I would argue that her best event is probably the 3k (which she has proven) and that makes me optimistic about her chances of running well on Saturday.

And how about Amina Maatoug? The Duke star from the Netherlands came out of nowhere this past fall, emerging as a true low-stick and earning a top-30 All-American finish at the most recent national meet.

However, prior to joining the Blue Devils, one could argue that Maatoug was best known for her 800 meter prowess given her 2:03 personal best in the event. She has also run 4:14 for 1500 meters.

And after a fantastic cross country season, it seems fair to suggest that her coming down in distance could result in a huge performance. After all, the 3k would a perfect balance between her success on the grass and her excellent marks in the middle distances.

It's also shocking that we have gotten this far into our analysis and have not yet highlighted Grace Fetherstonhaugh, the other Oregon State ace in this field who holds a resume similar to that of teammate Kaylee Mitchell.

Fetherstonhaugh has run 9:00 (3k), 9:37 (steeple) and just concluding a very strong cross country campaign with a 31st place All-American effort.

To put it simply, Fetherstonhaugh is just flat-out talented. She delivers more times than not and the 3000 meters is probably her best event, especially when you include water pits and barriers (which Saturday's race obviously won't have).

Other key talents to watch are Elise Thorner (New Mexico), Shannon Flockhart (Providence, Nevada Mareno (NC State) and Anna Gibson (Washington). All of those women have had recent All-American success on the grass OR have thrived on the track. Someone from this group is likely going to have a big day on Saturday, I'm just not sure who that will be.

Thorner is likely the best name to watch from that group given her 9:32 steeplechase PR, but her 40th place finish at the cross country national meet a few weeks ago has me questioning if she's still in the same form that we saw during the spring.

We'll admit, in comparison to the women's 3000 meters, or even the 5000 meter fields, the men's 3k race on Saturday isn't expected to be nearly as loaded.

This race does feature Craig Engels, but after Tennessee's Yaseen Abdalla, the proven 3k talents in these entries do seem limited.

It's hard to know how this race will play out. What kind of fitness is Engels in? What kind of pace is being prescribed? Will there even be a pacer? Is Engels going to be fit enough for Abdalla to chase? And if so, then could this race be won in under 7:50 even though the winning times from this event aren't usually that fast, at least not for collegiates?

Abdalla does own a 7:46 (flat-track converted) personal best in this event and was fantastic on the grass this past fall, putting together the best cross country season of his career. The Tennessee star is certainly capable of emerging as the top collegiate in this field, although it's hard to say just how fast he'll actually run.

Of course, none of this is to suggest that the collegiates listed behind Abdalla aren't talented. They just aren't as proven over this distance as the Volunteer star is.

Jesse Hamlin, for instance, has run 3:38 for 1500 meters and has proven to be sneaky-good in the longer distances such as the 5k. He also had a very strong cross country season, meaning that the 3k could end up being a good middle ground for him as far as his skillset is concerned.

It's a very similar story for Karl Winter, the former Pepperdine runner who recently ventured to Syracuse as a graduate transfer. His marks of 3:39 (1500) and 13:46 (5k) suggest that the 3k could be a really great event for him, especially now that he's in a distance-centric program.

It should be noted that Winter is also listed in the 5k entries.

Kenneth Rooks and Brett Gardner (who is also listed in the 5k) are two other names to watch. Both of these men have built their reputations in the steeplechase with Rooks owning a personal best of 8:22 while Gardner has run 8:37.

Gardner proved to be a competitive name on the grass this past fall and Rooks very clearly has the talent to be an upper-tier name in the 3k, even when you remove the water pits and barriers.

However, it's not entirely clear how Gardner will respond to a field such as this and Rooks has never contested an open 3k race throughout his college career, at least not according to TFRRS.

Other collegiates such as DJ Principe (Providence), Cameron Allan (Adams State), Ryan Fowkes (George Washington) and Mohammed Jouhari (Boise State) could all play a role in Saturday's race, although there's a bit more optimism for the first few names who we mentioned.

*Collegiates only

Men's 5000 meters

Women's 5000 meters

Men's 3000 meters

Women's 3000 meters