TSR Collaboration
Apr 8, 202112 min
These rankings do take some indoor track performances from this past winter into account. However, the introduction of events like the 10k and the steeplechase, as well as the return of certain seniors who have not raced in over a year, has forced us to reshuffle our rankings and leave out some highly accomplished distance talents.
It's been over a year since we last saw Mutai toe the line, but his long-awaited return gave us a strong outdoor debut and a step in the right direction. Mutai cracked the 30-minute barrier for the 10k in a field of just four runners, and was the only one to do so in that race. If he’s already capable of doing that, just wait until Mutai lines up in a bigger, more competitive field.
While it’s never a good idea to get too ahead of oneself, it’s hard to not be excited about what Mutai can do considering that this was just his "rust-buster". Mutai didn’t suit up for any races last fall or this winter and still managed this much. We can only expect that he’ll continue to race himself into his title-contending form.
After his hiccup on day one at the NCAA Indoor Championships, Afewerki Zeru appears to have completely shaken off that performance. Following his 3k All-American finish from a week ago, Zeru looks like he has gotten into a rhythm and built some momentum.
In his first and only race on an outdoor track so far for UCCS, Zeru notched a converted time of 14:01 in the 5000 meters. He may not have gotten the win, but he can at least take some solace in the provisional mark he earned.
While it might be a converted time, Zeru has proven that he at least has enough durability and tactical prowess to earn top finishes. He’s demonstrated that he can compete with just about anyone toeing the line with him, so look forward to some big performances from Zeru as the season progresses. Taking down Ryan Searle of Colorado Christian is a quietly impressive result.
Miguel Coca has dabbled in a little bit of almost everything in the short time since the outdoor season started. The Adams State ace kicked things off with a very nice double at the CSU-Pueblo Spank Blasing Open, running both the 1500 meters and 800 meters.
Coca took the win in the 1500 meters, running a converted 3:46. He then came back and ran a 1:56 in the 800, putting together a very underrated weekend double that truthfully hasn't gotten much attention.
The next week, Coca added a 14:13 (5k) personal best to his outdoor resume at the Sound Running Invite. At just two meets in, Coca has two provisional marks and a proven ability to be competitive in multiple disciplines. It's early-on in the season, but his versatility and ability to effectively double has been impressive.
It may be easy to forget about Beamer since he a) wasn't a D2 runner prior to this year and b) didn't race at all during the indoor track season. However, this graduate transfer from the University of Washington has a chance of being one of the nation's most elite D2 1500 runner this spring.
The former Husky owns personal bests of 4:02 for the mile and 3:46 for 1500 meters. Not only that, but he has never actually run a mile slower than 4:09 throughout the entirety of his senior year. Beamer has a solid, although not amazing, balance of speed and stamina, something that can be seen in his 800 and 3k performances.
It's been a while since we've seen him race and that leaves us a little cautious about his ranking. However, his consistent ability to run at a very high level could make him an eventual title contender.
Kipkosgei returned to action after more than a year hiatus, and to be honest, it wasn’t the best debut. Even so, it's understandable that some of these athletes have built up quite a bit of rust and immediately returning to a high-level of collegiate competition isn't easy.
Even so, running 9:20 for the steeplechase isn’t great based on what we have seen out of Kipkosgei in prior seasons. If he’s in top form, he’s a threat to take home the steeplechase title, although the designation of "national title favorite" almost certainly belongs to Christian Noble.
While there's no doubt that this American International standout is a top steeplechaser, he's also plenty talented in a few other distance events. We think his value will eventually come out later this season if he can rebound from this past steeple performance.
Before the outdoor season began, the last time we saw Rotich race was on the dirt in Canyon, Texas. Since then, the TAMU-Commerce distance talent has taken to the outdoor oval. He opened the season in 9:07 for the steeple, and followed that up with a 14:20 effort in the 5k. Both are strong times and are nothing to scoff at. However, it’s clear that those times likely won't put him in the postseason.
Of course, it's also clear that Rotich and his coach knew that those times weren't going to be nationally competitive a few weeks from now. That's likely why we saw Rotich come back at the Texas Relays with a time of 8:50 in the steeplechase which has now propelled him into being a true national contender in the event.
The only knock right now is that the 1500 meter race he just ran resulted in a modest mark of 3:55. His other times indicate that he should be faster than that, and if he isn’t it, then it might make winning a tactical race that much harder for him.
When we wrote about Becker during our indoor rankings, we mentioned how he might be better off in the longer distances. It feels good to be right, even if it was fairly obvious. The Queens athlete stayed in-state and ran 29:15 for 10,000 meters at the Raleigh Relays, validating our winter season suspicions.
Now, admittedly, he was fourth-best D2 runner in that race, but he snuck under the automatic qualifying mark, essentially allowing him to not have to race another 10k this season. That will be big in terms of racing the 5k and gaining more fitness. Becker continues to impress early-on in the season after building some incredible momentum at the end of last winter.
This is the Carson Bix that we expected to see when it came to the indoor season. We saw a flash of Bix’s recent fitness when he anchored his DMR team in a 4:04 split, but we were mostly concerned with the lack of notable performances during the winter months.
Those concerns, however, were put to bed this past weekend as he ran 13:58 at the Sound Collegiate Invitational to finish 8th overall. We saw Bix run 13:44 back in December and it seems that he’s rounding the corner early-on during outdoors.
As the season continues, Bix should emerge as a legitimate contender in the 5000 meters, although it feels like the 1500 meters may also be an ideal option for him as that event seems to be equally as deep as the 5k.
Sweeney finds himself at TSR #16, not entirely because of his performance, but because so many others have thrown down some excellent results. The Mountaineer ace took to the 10k at the GCU Antelope Invite this past weekend and ran 30:06. That’s good enough for him to be listed at TSR #10 on the national leaderboard, but it's not what we expected from him.
Now, that said, Sweeney won that race by 18 seconds, suggesting that at some point, it became a solo effort. There’s no reason to believe that Sweeney wouldn’t run much faster than that in a race with more competition.
Julian has not yet raced this outdoor season.
Anthony is the first of three very strong 800 meter runners who headline our rankings. He opened up his season in 1:49:06, just narrowly missing the 1:48 mark which he ran at the NCAA Indoor Championships. His latest 800 effort came after he ran the 1500 meters at the Raleigh Relays where he set a new personal best in the event (3:49).
There was some speculation that Anthony might be better suited for the 1500, but he’s proving to be one of the most consistent 800 meter runners in the country. He very well could be doubling in May, but his best chance at a national title will likely come in the 800 meters, even if someone like Mbuta is in top form.
Ko has not raced yet this outdoor season.
Stack opened the season with a strong 1500 meter effort, breaking the 3:50 mark in Grand Junction. That was a strong showing and he followed that with his best steeplechase performance just a week later.
At the GCU Antelope Invite this past weekend, Stack improved upon his personal best by six seconds, running an eyebrow-raising time of 8:50. He did that in a mostly solo effort as well, winning the event by 15 seconds over his teammates. This will be Stack’s final season to try and take home an individual title and his odds are improving with performances like this.
Of course, Christian Noble looks like he'll be Stack's biggest hurdle in this event.
Scomparin has not yet raced this outdoor season.
Calahan Warren has literally done it all despite the outdoor track season just starting. The graduate transfer from Embry-Riddle has raced well for Western Washington in the early weeks of this outdoor season, running the 800, 1500, 5k and 10k.
Warren has secured provisional marks in each of those events except for the 800 which, upon closer inspection, one has to question whether or not that’s really out of the cards for him.
Warren started out his season with the 5k, running 14:16 to win comfortably by almost 30 seconds. He then doubled in the 10k and the 800 meters the very next week. He won both races, being the only one to crack the 30-minute barrier in his 10k race before winning his 800m in a time of 1:55. His most recent race was the 1500 mneters in which he ran 3:44 to take home the win.
The versatility of Warren is unbelievable. While that 800 time may not seem like much, to do it after a 10k, especially with the quality of the 10k he ran, is undoubtedly impressive. And of course, his 1500 result proves that he has more strength and skill to flex in the middle distances. If he really wanted to mess with a faster 800 meter race, then that seems plenty realistic.
At this point, the only question we have is, “What can’t this man do?”
We saw Riddle move up in distance at the MIAA Conference Championships this past winter and he wasted no time in proving those same long distance capabilities on the outdoor oval. He ran just the second 5k in his Missouri Southern career and he nearly duplicated what he ran indoors, earning a time of 14:10.
Given what we saw during indoors, Riddle might need to run faster than that to qualify for the NCAA Championships in this event. Even so, we aren't even sure if Riddle will try and contest this event come May. The 1500 meters is probably his best event, but underrated middle distance speed potentially benefit him in a tactical 5k on the championship stage? It's something to think about...
There seems to be one man who can get in the way of a second Dennis Mbuta 800 meter title and that man is Butare Rugenerwa. He’s the only other athlete under the 1:49 barrier so far this season (although Seb Anthony dipped under that mark during indoors) and his time of 1:48.33 is less than a tenth of a second behind Mbuta’s.
However, the most impressive thing from the West Texas athlete isn’t the 1:48 he ran at the Texas Relays, but instead, it's the 4:10 mile that he ran. That’s a six-second improvement from anything he’s ever run during indoors and it's nice indication of strength. No, we're not going to overreact to a 4:10 mile result, but it does bode well for Rugenerwa who can seemingly do no wrong at the half-mile distance.
I am not sure that we have seen more consistent teammates than we have with Harding and Chada. Both had incredible indoor seasons and it’s already translated to the outdoor circuit. At the Raleigh Relays, Harding finished his 10k in a time of 29:06 with Chada right behind him in 29:07. Both are auto marks by more than nine seconds.
With that out of the way, focusing on the 5k will be the next goal and they’ll be considered heavy contenders in both events if they opt for both race at the NCAA Championships. We’ve seen a variety of races with these two and they hold similar times in all events. They can lead from the front or close hard in a tactical race. Over the course of 10,000 meters, odds are the fastest milers end up on top and that’s where these two find themselves.
We have been anticipating the return of Mastandrea since COVID shut down almost all of 2020 last year. Sure enough, he wasted no time showing us how his training had come along during the fall and winter seasons.
At the Raleigh Relays, Mastandrea ran 29:02 for 10,000 meters and improved his PR by 34 seconds. He also took down the likes of Isaac Harding, Tanner Chada and Jan Lukas Becker -- three quality names who are coming off of breakout indoor seasons. He’ll run a 5k in the near future and guesses are that he’s faster than his 14:08 PR indicates.
Torres wasted no time validating his performance from the NCAA Indoor Championships, proving that his latest result was no fluke. He opened up his outdoor season in the 1500 meter where ran 3:46.28 en route to a three-second win over Western Colorado’s Taylor Stack. Before the conversion, that’d be the second-fastest raw time this season, but it currently leaves him at NCAA #1 with a very exciting mark of 3:41. For perspective, that converted mark would currently be ranked at NCAA #15 at the D1 level.
His automatic mark gives him some flexibility this season to see what else he might be competitive in. Of course, after coming so close to a national title on the indoor oval, we only see him pursuing other events like the 800 and 5k to refine his speed and strength, respectively.
When checking heat sheets for the Azusa Pacific meet, it was a small surprise to see Young slated for the 5000 meters with a seed time of 14:15. After winning the indoor national title mile, opening with a quick 1500 meters to start the season seemed to be the more ideal move. Of course, we've seen other Academy of Art runners step up in distance during outdoors and Young is no different.
Young ran 14:09 the other weekend and took home a seven-second victory in an event that he had to move up in distance for. His time is currently ranked at NCAA #8 on the national leaderboard, but It’s very possible that he might need to run faster than that if he actually wants to earn a national qualifying spot in this event.
That said, Young is legitimate title threat in the 1500 meters as we progress this season and there doesn't seem to be any reason why he wouldn't pursue the metric mile given that he won the mile title indoors. If anything, his recent display of strength validates his huge 4:00 mile time from this past winter.
Welcome back, Mr. Laguera. The veteran opened his season with an impressive 1500 effort at altitude (3:53). That mark eventually converted to 3:48 -- some nice middle distance speed for a guy who is clearly better suited for the 5k and 10k.
The former NCAA cross country champion later ran 14:13 on his home track and put 20 seconds between him and UCCS standout Afewerki Zeru. That mark converts down to 13:51 and holds a seven-second lead over next-best on the national leaderboard in the 5k. There shouldn’t be any doubt about what Laguera can do and it’s certainly nice to see him in fine form early-on.
Mbuta opened up right where he left off from the indoor season. After setting a personal best in the 800 meters during the final at the NCAA Indoor Championships, Mbuta opened his final outdoor season with personal bests in both the 800 and 1500 on a weekend double. Mbuta currently has the fastest 800 meter time in D2 after running 1:48.24. In the same weekend, he ran 3:46.34 in the 1500 meters which is good enough for a top-five placement on the D2 national leaderboard.
Both times are slight improvements for Mbuta overall and that could spell trouble for the rest of the country as the season goes on. Mbuta seems to have found his rhythm and improvement this early in the season projects for a potential monster year for the Laker.
Noble opened up his outdoor season in what is perceived to be his main event, the 3000 meter steeplechase. And if he already wasn’t the favorite, he made it very clear that others will have to run his race in order to beat him.
The 8:39 steeplechase finish at Raleigh led him to a 13-second win. It is currently the fastest time across all NCAA divisions. He also cut 16 seconds off of his personal best after not racing the event in almost two years. There’s not much else to say about Noble except that every time out, he looks more and more impressive.
Jonathan Specht (Western Colorado)
Ahmed Sado (Adams State)
Davonte Jett-Reynolds (Adams State)
Jonathon Groendyk (Grand Valley State)
Ezekiel Kipchirchir (West Texas A&M)
CarLee Stimpfel (Saginaw Valley State)
Ayman Zahafi (Texas A&M-Kingsville)
Austin Miller (Augustana)
Ian Johnson (Ashland)
Arnaud Taki (West Texas A&M)
Nathan Hood (CSU-Pueblo)
Hugo Arlabosse (Franklin Pierce)
Shane Bracken (St. Leo)
Jake Mitchem (Colorado Mines)
Enael Woldemichael (Grand Valley State)
Shane Cohen (Tampa)
Elliot Slade (Academy of Art)
Jason Weitzel (Concord)
Tai Smith (Wingate)
Ryder Searle (Colorado Christian)
Ben Allen (Concordia-St. Paul)
Matthew Pahl (Michigan Tech)
Braden Reichl (Michigan Tech)
Timon Kemboi (TAMU-Commerce)
Ryan Talbott (Saginaw Valley State)
Luc Hagen (Colorado Mines)