TSR Collaboration
Jan 13, 202110 min
Click here to see our Just Missed and Honorable Mention names
Click here to read Part One
Woldemichael reappeared for the Lakers at the start of the spring semester in 2020 when he toed the line for the first time since the 2018 outdoor season. When he did return, he ran a surprisingly fast 14:12 for 5000 meters in early February and then ran 8:07 (3k), a personal best, en route to a 2nd place finish at the GLIAC Championships.
Part of why Woldemichael is here is because he missed an extended period of time. His times look great on paper, but it's been a while since we've seen what he looks like against the nation’s best. Even so, let’s be clear about this, Woldemichael is a major national threat at the 3k and 5k distances. His past success at the NCAA Championships includes two top-three finishes in the 5k and two 6th place finishes at the cross country national meets.
We should also mention that his 13:54 5k personal best suggests that he’s much faster than his 4:18 (mile) and 8:07 (3000) say he is. He's still one of the best distance runners in the country and it's more than likely that Woldemichael will sustain (and potentially build upon) his success from last winter.
Titus Winders’ inclusion on this list should come as no surprise. Winders is a four-time All-American after last indoor season. He earned All-American honors in both the 3k and 5k last year, dropping times of 8:08 (3k) and 14:06 (5k). It should go without saying that he qualified for the national meet in both events, but he also had a national-qualifying time in the mile after running 4:07 at the Meyo Invitational.
The jack-of-all-trades was hugely missed by his team this past fall as without him, the Screaming Eagles lacked a low-stick threat at the front of their lineup. Historically speaking, Winders has not been one to shy away from the pressure, finishing 13th at the NCAA XC Championships back in 2019. We haven't, however, seen him fully prove himself at the national championship level on the track (at least not yet).
He qualified for Nationals in two separate indoor seasons, but couldn’t compete at either due to injury and then COVID. Outdoors is a somewhat similar story for Winders, with injury preventing him from competing entirely once, and then COVID subsequently cancelling an entire season.
However, if given the chance, we’d bet that Winders will break the streak on the track this year. Not only can he do a little bit of everything, but he can do everything incredibly well.
Arlabosse returns for his senior season with a fairly strong chance at winning an NCAA title in the 800 meters this winter. He’s one of four runners who have broken the 1:50 barrier.
Now, admittedly, the odds for winning NCAA gold aren’t necessarily in Arlabosse’s favor as Dennis Mbuta is one of those other three runners under the 1:50 barrier. That being said, Arlabosse has qualified for three NCAA Championships, placing as high as 5th during the 2019 indoor season. He’s a seven-time conference champion between the Northeast-10 and NEICAAA conferences and has shown the ability to race over multiple days, a key aspect when it comes to multiple rounds at national meets.
The thing working in Arlabosse’s favor is the fact that he likely won’t be contesting any other races at the NCAA level. He’s only run 4:14 for the mile and isn’t a real threat in the 3k. He’ll be as fresh as he can be for a shot at the national title, something that we can't guarantee for Mbuta.
Hugo Arlabosse was one of the outside contenders for the 800 meter national title should the race have happened last season. The middle distance ace has proven himself an effective workhorse throughout his collegiate career and has rarely had a bad race.
Yet another 800 meter national title threat is Ayman Zahafi who has already run 1:48 in his career. However, the junior was already redshirting the 2020 indoor season last year, so he wasn’t immediately impacted by the canceled NCAA Championships.
Zahafi finished 3rd at the 2018 NCAA Indoor Championships and followed that up with a 2nd place finish at the outdoor national meet. He’s got championship experience at the highest level and had he not run into an all-time D2 great Thomas Staines over the last two years, then we might have been talking about Zahafi looking for a second national title.
He doesn’t have any other marks listed for him aside from some cross country races which were clearly designed for some strength training. Given that he fits the timeline of how he was approaching the next few seasons, we should see him come right back into the mix at an elite level.
Moran really broke onto the scene for the Orediggers when he finished 4th at the 2019 NCAA XC Championships. He rode that finish into the following indoor season, finishing in the top-14 of the NCAA qualifying list in both the 3k and 5k.
We’ve only seen Moran race at sea level twice on the track, and both times were at the NCAA Championships where he contested the 5k. However, he admittedly hasn't been great on the national stage. He finished 12th at the 2019 indoor national meet and then 19th at the outdoor national meet that same year.
However, given his cross country performance, it seems like Moran has shaken off the nerves that come with some of the first national races of a runner’s career.
Moran just recently finished 3rd at the RMAC XC Championships during the shortened cross country season, but those results don’t include the Colorado Mines time trial where he ran 23:57 (8k) on the track and was step for step with teammate Dylan Ko.
He’s likely already better than his 8:08 conversion suggested last winter. If that’s the case, then Moran should be even better in the 5k this winter and become a true dual-threat All-American candidate when he toes the line for the 3k.
The Western Colorado senior didn't have the best end to the most recent cross country season as he finished five places worse at the 2020 RMAC Championships than where he finished in 2019 (where he was 2nd). Even so, we'll just chalk that up to some pandemic rust.
We all know what Stack can do when he’s at his best, as evidenced by his 8:06 (3k) last winter. The veteran will rebound in a big way as he’s still looking for his first national title. He'll still need to battle the likes of Christian Noble and a handful of other top distances talents, but you could make the argument that no one in D2 is more experienced and more familiar with the top distance talents in the NCAA than Stack is.
Prior to this year, Beamer's college career has been at the University of Washington where he saw a fair amount of success. After following the direction of Coach Andy Powell for the past few seasons, the newest Western Washington runner has a chance to be one of D2's best milers if he can maintain his form.
Beamer brings with him a personal best of 4:02 in the mile as well as a 3:46 personal best for 1500 meters during the outdoor season. His 8:22 (3k) could be improved upon, but that still puts him in the top-40 at the D2 level. The odds of that 3k improving are very high, but that’s likely not the race that Beamer will be focusing on.
The former UW Husky is an instant threat (and even favorite) to win the mile national title this winter, solely on the fact that he has run a full second faster in the event than anyone who is returning in 2021. He has consistently run 4:05 or faster in the mile, six times to be exact, during his college career and has never been slower than 4:10 during his time in Washington. That is some mind-boggling consistency.
This ranking is admittedly based on the assumption that Beamer will be back at the same level that we saw from him during his time at Washington. A new place and new training don’t always produce immediate results, but it's hard to ignore the overwhelming talent that Beamer has shown.
For as much as Mutai has won, we don’t think he gets enough hype. As a freshman, he won the 2019 NCAA cross country title, an accomplishment that many elite runners get four tries at and still don’t come close to accomplishing.
Mutai is at his best when it comes to the 3k/5k, producing times good enough to be at the top of the NCAA. His 5k time (14:02) ranked him at NCAA #4 last winter while his 3k (8:02) was listed as the second-best mark in the nation.
We have yet to see how he races in a tactical setting on the track and his championship experience in D2 races away from the grass is nonexistent. Even so, few athletes in the NCAA are as naturally talented as Mutai. He can become a high-finishing All-American on just raw talent alone.
Ok, ok, let’s settle the difference between our TSR #4 and TSR #5 runners in the most civil way possible: the Sound Running Track Meet from December. The head-to-head 5k matchup between the two RMAC rivals was decided by a mere eighty-two hundredths of a second. Official times were 13:44.64 (Bix) and 13:45.46 (Sweeney).
Based on performances from last year, Bix is more of a middle distance runner and to find his fastest 5k time on the track prior to December, you had to go back to when he was enrolled at El Camino JC.
Bix came into December's Sound Running Track Meet with a personal best of 14:32, so he ultimately shaved off 47 seconds from his personal best. Sweeney also ran better by 15 seconds while pushing the pace up front to make sure that they stayed true to form. Instead of having to move up distance like Bix, he was right at home in the land of aerobia.
With Bix not partaking at the RMAC Championships this past fall, this was the perfect deciding factor to see how we should rank these two long distance D2 studs. That’s not to discount Sweeney’s 5th place finish at the RMAC Championships from this past fall, it’s just that we didn’t have anything to compare these two until last month.
Dylan Ko brings a little bit of everything to the table. He is a runner who excels at every distance from the mile to the 10k, making him dangerous no matter the race tactics. He finished the 2020 indoor track season at NCAA #4 in the 3k and NCAA #5 in the 5k, while also sneaking into the NCAA #14 slot in the mile. That indoor season saw him run personal bests in all three events, momentum that he carried into the fall of 2020.
As we all know, cross country was “abbreviated” this past fall, which led to Ko officially racing only once at the RMAC Championships. Of course, if you are only going to race once, it’s best to take down a loaded field, which is exactly what Ko did.
Winning the race by four seconds, the Colorado Mines junior took down names such as Isaiah Rodarte, Charlie Sweeny and Taylor Stack. Remember, this was a 10k race being won by the guy who was listed at NCAA #14 in the mile last winter.
Now, 2021 is here and such begins the redemption season for Ko. We know he can run fast and he’s proven himself in a handful of events. However, despite his success, he has actually never run at an indoor national meet.
Normally, this would be a concern for someone ranked so highly, but Ko has been to both the NCAA XC Championships and the NCAA Outdoor Championships -- meets that should provide him valuable experience for the tactics that come with indoor racing.
Ko will not be favored for the national title in either the 3k or 5k heading into the season, but just because's he's not the favorite doesn't mean that he can't win a national title in March.
Mbuta is arguably the best middle distance runner in Division 2. In a strong GLIAC conference, he swept the 800 meters, the mile and the DMR last winter and was one of only two runners to break 1:49 for 800 meters. He did not lose a single 2020 indoor track race in the 800 or the mile to a Division 2 competitor. While he did not top the performance list in either event, he was set up to have a massive national meet before the cancellation.
What makes Mbuta more dangerous than most of his D2 counterparts is his combination of talent and tactics. Going an entire indoor season while beating all Division 2 competitors is no small feat and it speaks volumes about his tactical skills.
He also showed tremendous potential to bounce back across multiple events at the GLIAC Championships where he earned three victories. To be successful at the national meet, he will need to put together a string of great showings and he certainly appears capable of doing just that.
However, arguably the most important trait of all is the consistency that Mbuta has exhibited over his collegiate career. Throughout his indoor and outdoor racing, the GVSU ace has run sub-1:50 in the 800 meters a total of six times, including that sub-1:49 performance we saw last year. It might be easy to look at a performance list and think that there are numerous athletes close to his caliber, but Mbuta has done it time and time again.
There’s not much he can’t do. The GVSU star has performed well on the national stage before with All-American finishes in the 800 meters during both indoors and outdoors. Should last year not have been cut short, the odds were in favor of him adding another All-American finish to his belt and maybe even a national title.
With a personal best of 4:03 in the mile, he could be a legitimate title contender in multiple events this year.
The rise of Christian Noble has been rapid and relentless. Heading into the 2020 indoor season, the Lee University senior had been among the Division 2 elites, but he had plenty of room to grow. He had earned All-American honors in the steeplechase at the 2019 NCAA Outdoor Championships, his best performance as a collegiate.
Then, 2020 happened.
During the indoor season, which would eventually be cut short, Noble shattered his personal bests in both the 3k and 5k. He chopped 22 seconds off of his previous 3k mark, posting an 8:05 which would convert to 8:00, making him the fastest man in D2 that season. In the 5k, he dropped 29 seconds from his 2017 mark to settle at a time of 14:01 (NCAA #2).
And just when you thought he was done, he went out and did it again. Despite the cancelled indoor championships, Noble carried his momentum straight through the summer. He posted an incredible time of 13:48 for 5000 meters at the Music City Distance Carnival on August 15th. From there, he took his talents to the cross country course.
In a dominant season, Noble went undefeated, won the Gulf South Conference title and had one of the best performances of the year at the Blazer Classic. In that race, Noble won the "Gold" section in a time of 23:24 for 8000 meters, a mark that would have made him the overall champion against elite D1 competition in the "Green" race.
At this point, it’s fair to ask, what is Noble’s ceiling? His ascent has been rapid and does not appear to be stopping any time soon. He will be the overwhelming national favorite in the 3k and 5k this season with a chance at collegiate records in both.
Noble has never been higher than 5th at a national meet, but it’s a good bet that he changes that fact this winter.