TSR Collaboration
Jan 7, 202111 min
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What can't Krissy Gear do? Since transferring from Furman, the Arkansas runner has found plenty of success on the track and last winter was when she really broke out in a major way.
The current Razorback boasts personal bests of 2:07 (800), 4:36 (mile) and 9:14 (3k). Not only did those mile and 3k times come last winter, but they actually came at the same meet, the Razorback Invitational, showing off Gear's quietly strong ability to effectively double over the span of 24 hours.
Between that impressive ability to double, her sometimes overlooked range, a separate 4:37 mile time at the beginning of the season and her increasingly important role in Arkansas' DMR, Gear has a place among the NCAA's top distances talents.
Admittedly, we're still waiting for her to run a time that truly blows us out of the water, but she has a ton of great intangibles and that is a major reason why we have her ranked at TSR #13.
After being a consistent top name in cross country, Kimeli had her big breakthrough on the track last indoor season when she opened up her winter campaign with a 15:37 (5k) personal best at the BU Season Opener. That mark was a 34-second improvement and gave her momentum to set new personal bests in both the 3k (9:14) and mile (4:38). She was ranked NCAA #9 in the 5k heading into the NCAA Championships.
For as good as Kimeli has been (and she has been excellent), her biggest shortcoming, at the moment, championship experience. She has been to the NCAA Championships multiple times in cross country, most notably placing 14th in 2019. However, the story is a bit different when it comes to the indoor and outdoor ovals.
Kimeli has only competed in one national meet on the track where she was forced out during the prelim rounds of the steeplechase. She later finished 21st in the 5000 meters at the 2019 NCAA Outdoor Championships. To have success this season, she will need to show tactical prowess on the nation's biggest stage.
The good thing for Kimeli is that she already has the top marks, clear fitness, history of success and quietly great range to be an All-American this winter. We didn't see her race this past fall despite the SEC holding competition for cross country, but if she does return to racing, then she has enough fitness to cause some serious problems for her collegiate counterparts.
Senior Laurie Barton is the top returner in the women's 800 meters this year. The Clemson Tiger owns a personal best of 2:03 and has a strong career resume in the middle distances. Barton qualified for both the 2018 outdoor national meet and the 2020 national indoor meet, but didn't compete in a final in either of those championship races.
That, however, could change this year for Barton if she is in top form.
The ACC standout has been a mainstay in the 800 meters for the past few years, always finishing amongst the top athletes at the ACC Championships. In fact, she was the 2020 conference champion in her first year at Clemson after transferring from Virginia Tech.
Although her 2:03 PR comes from the 2018 indoor season, Barton is on the right track after running 2:04 last year, a time that ranked her at NCAA #6 and qualified her for the indoor national meet.
Admittedly, Barton’s main challengers are close behind and she needs to mesh the best aspects of her 2018 and 2020 indoor seasons together if she wants to win the national title this winter. Even so, she has extensive experience and is likely riding high on confidence after a successful winter campaign from last year.
Rhode Island’s Lotte Black has remarkable range, all the way from the 800 meters to the 3000 meters and could contest any of those three events at the indoor national meet. Her better opportunity is most likely in the mile or 3k given that she was ranked at NCAA #16 (mile) and NCAA #18 (3k) during the 2020 indoor season.
After placing 4th in the 1500 meters at the 2019 national outdoor meet, all eyes were on Black during the 2019 cross country season and 2020 indoor track season. And for the most part, she delivered on the expectations that were set for her.
The Rhode Island standout carried her success from that 2019 outdoor national meet on the grass when she finished 44th at the NCAA Championships on a crummy day in Terre Haute. Her indoor season was highlighted by a 9:10 (3k) personal best, which was fresh of her cross country fitness, followed by an impressive 4:36 mile.
The 2021 indoor track season could see Black earn her first opportunity to compete at NCAA's after COVID halted her 2020 opportunity. The current senior has made clear improvements in each season of competition and her stock has only risen given the national meet experience that she amassed prior to the pandemic.
It’s a toss-up as to whether Allie Schadler or Julia Heymach is the most underrated distance runner in the NCAA. It certainly has not helped Schadler that she has been surrounded by the likes of Katie Rainsberger, Melany Smart and Carley Thomas over the past few years -- three top-ranked talents in their own right.
Regardless of how talented they are, Schadler is just as good...and maybe even better.
The Washington senior had a massive performance to close out her 2020 indoor track season when she ran 9:00 in the 3000 meters, bettering her previous personal best by 14 seconds. That mark moved her to NCAA #11 on the performance list and earned her a national qualifying spot to pair with her role in Washington's DMR.
Prior to last winter, Schadler was previously known as a miler after running 4:14 in the 1500 meters. However, that top-end speed has since transitioned into top-tier stamina. Just last month, Schadler ran a huge personal best of 15:33 (5k) at the Sound Running Track Meet in December, 48 seconds faster than her previous best. She also ran a 4:33 mile in a time trial back in November.
Schadler was someone who seemed to be waiting for her breakthrough moment and based on her recent results, she may have finally gotten it. She has a ton of momentum right now and is now the upper-echelon of collegiate distance runners. Will she be able to translate her exciting range and top times into All-American finishes? We'll just have to wait and see...
Henes is a seasoned veteran on the verge of being the top All-American candidate that we know she can be. When it comes to the indoor national meet, the NC State veteran was 7th in the 5000 meters in 2017 and placed 14th and 15th in the 5k and 3k (respectively) in 2018.
After redshirting the 2020 indoor season, the NCAA canceled the outdoor track season due to COVID. Despite the limited opportunities, Henes took advantage of a whole year away from collegiate competition and ran personal bests in the 1500, 5k and 10k from August to December.
The Wolfpack ace dropped her personal bests from 4:18 to 4:15 in the 1500, lowered her 5k PR by four seconds to a time of 15:27, and ran her first-ever 10k on the track where she finished with a huge time of 32:12, a mark would have been listed at NCAA #4 on the 2019 outdoor performance list.
Each year, Henes seems to get a little better. Sure, she finished lower at the indoor national meet between 2017 and 2018, but she also doubled-back which complicates things. Looking at her previous fall season and her unattached races, the NC State senior looks to be a contender in both the 3k and 5k this winter and is clearly in the best shape of her career.
With no cross country eligibility remaining, Henes can go all-in for the 2021 indoor track season and maybe even challenge for a national title if her outdoor success is any indication of what her future holds.
Gregory is an extremely talented runner and will be key in helping the Razorbacks pick up another indoor national team title this winter. She could make a difference in either the mile, 3000 meters or DMR based on her past successes and range.
The only point of concern for Gregory is that she needs to remain healthy. However, given her 2020 cross country season, we can assume she will be starting the indoor season in great shape.
After a rocky 2019-2020 year plagued by injury and COVID, Gregory has already started the 2020-2021 year off right when she led the Razorbacks in three of their four cross country meets and placed within the top-four each time. Seeing that she is back in top form leads us to believe that this Razorback veteran could make some noise on the indoor track when teaming up with teammates like Katie Izzo and Krissy Gear.
Gregory has only completed one indoor track season for Arkansas, but she made it a memorable one after running personal bests of 4:32 (mile) and 8:55 (3k). It feels like Gregory could run in pretty much any distance events this winter and if she is able to replicate her fitness from the 2019 indoor track season, then she'll be in consideration for a national title come March.
In which event? Well, we'll let you know when we find out.
You know what they say, “New Year, New…Mexico?” That's the saying, right?
The former Stanford standout transferred to the University of New Mexico for her fifth-year and will be looking for her big breakthrough after years of consistently posting extremely impressive times and top national meet finishes.
For the past four years, any distance championship that has been discussed has included O’Keeffe’s name. She has a handful of top-10 national meet finishes on the track, including a 3rd place finish in the indoor 5000 meters in 2019. She looked like a lock for her first top-10 finish in cross country in 2019 before dealing with an injury and ultimately placing 27th in Terre Haute.
On paper, O’Keeffe has the credentials of a national champion. She has run 4:20 for 1500 meters, 8:58 for 3000 meters and 15:31 for 5000 meters. Will her move to New Mexico under the guidance of Joe Franklin be what pushes her into that top spot? Could her extensive experience ultimately give her NCAA gold two and a half months from?
Jessica Lawson ran the mile three times during the 2020 indoor track season. In each of those instances, she ran 4:37, 4:35 and 4:36. That is impressive consistency that even some of the NCAA's greatest milers would struggle to replicate.
On top of that, Lawson also posted a personal best of 8:59 for 3000 meters, giving the Stanford runner the three greatest aspects that TSR looks at when making these rankings: consistency, fast times and versatility.
Lawson was on fire before COVID struck and she had some of the best momentum in the NCAA. Between outdoor track, cross country and indoor track, the Cardinal junior has proven to be a true three-season threat capable of not only battling, but taking down some of the best distance runners in the nation.
And we don't expect that to change any time soon.
Already a multiple-time All-American on both the grass and track, Katie Rainsberger will be giving it another go this winter and she has the potential to compete in numerous events for the Huskies. The UW veteran is a very experienced miler and 3k runner as well as an extremely valuable DMR piece.
Rainsberger’s best options this winter, in our opinion, will be the 3000 meters and DMR. With a 8:56 (3k) PR from the 2020 indoor season, she has solidified herself as one of the nation’s best and should be in contention for a national title. That time ranked her at NCAA #6 during the 2020 indoor season and a few weeks after that performance, Rasinberger improved her 1500 meter PR to a time 4:12 on Boston University's indoor track.
As for the DMR, Rainsberger was a member of Washington’s 10:56 result from the 2020 indoor season, a time that ranked the Huskies at NCAA #3. She has a mile PR of 4:35 and in 2017 she split 4:30 for 1600 meters to carry give the Oregon Duck’s a collegiate national record in the DMR.
Not only does Rainsberger boast a plethora of fast times, but she finished 3rd in the women's 3000 meters at the 2017 indoor national meet. With a handful of other national qualifying performances on her resume, Rainsberger has the lethal combination of experience and fast times which could make her a major problem for her competitors this season.
Without cross country eligibility to worry about, the Washington ace will be able to go all-in for the indoor track season this winter.
Calling Heymach a "dark horse" doesn’t seem right when you consider that she was the NCAA's fifth-fastest miler in 2020, but for one reason or another, the Stanford senior does not get the name recognition of her peers. A multi-talented runner, Heymach will be a contender in a handful of events this winter and should quickly insert herself into the national title conversation.
Over her first two years, Heymach had made steady progress at Stanford, finishing her 2019 outdoor season with a time of 4:19 for 1500 meters. In 2020, she elevated her fitness to a whole new level. Although she raced sparingly, Heymach went on to run 2:04 (800), 2:45 (1k), 4:33 (mile) and helped place Stanford’s DMR in the NCAA #2 position on the performance list. She will enter the 2021 indoor track season as the NCAA #2 returner in the mile and NCAA #5 returner in the 800 meters.
The only knock on Heymach is that her event specialty will likely force her out of at least one event when it comes to the NCAA Championships. Both the 800 and mile have preliminary rounds and the DMR is on the first day of competition. As a result, Heymach would theoretically end up racing three times on day one, with potentially two more races on day two.
Regardless of how she balances those races and the upcoming winter cross country season, the Stanford middle distance specialist has proven to be someone with few weaknesses, incredible range and underrated consistency. She has made leaps in fitness last winter that few NCAA athletes ever experience.
Katie Izzo broke onto the scene during the 2019-2020 academic year after transferring to Arkansas from Cal Poly. The adjustment seemed to be a good one as she immediately made an impact for the Razorbacks and was consistently finishing amongst the top-five, whether that be on the grass or the track.
After placing a stellar 3rd at the 2019 national cross country meet, Izzo popped off an incredible time of 15:13 for 5000 meters at Boston University which ultimately placed her at #2 on the NCAA All-Time list, only trailing Emily Sisson. Teammate Taylor Werner was running unattached in that race.
Of course, Izzo didn’t stop there. She continued to impress last winter by running times of 4:35 (mile) and 8:55 (3k). The Arkansas runner had her choice of events when it came to declaring her entry for NCAA's.
Admittedly, we don't truly know how Izzo handles races that are a bit more tactical and races that require fast finishes. That's not to say that she isn't great in those settings, but outside of last year's SEC Championships (where she won two titles), most of her races have been run with the idea of her securing a national qualifying time.
The Arkansas star is already off to an exciting start this winter after recording a 32:28 (10k) in California at the Sound Running Track Meet in December. However, regardless of whether or not she posted that time, Izzo was still going to be overall favorite to win the 5000 meters at the NCAA Championships in March. In fact, she even has the potential to challenge for the win in the 3000 meters as well.
If Dani Jones and Whittni Orton had not run during the 2020 indoor track season, then Ella Donaghu would have been a realistic national title contender in both the mile and the 3000 meters last year.
Would it have been easy? Or even probable? No.
But realistic? Yes.
We knew that Donaghu was wildly talented, but the 2020 indoor track season truly vaulted her into the top tier of the NCAA. Last winter, the Stanford veteran ran 4:33 for the mile and 8:54 for 3000 meters. And if you think those times were just flukes, remember that Donaghu actually ran under 4:35 twice and under 9:00 twice, all performances coming at different meets.
When Donaghu is paired with teammates Jessica Lawson and Julia Heymach, the Stanford women also have the potential to field one of the NCAA's greatest DMRs in recent memory.
Could you argue in favor of someone else for the top spot in our rankings? Maybe, but it's hard to ignore the overwhelming firepower and consistency that Donaghu has shown compared to her collegiate counterparts.