TSR Collaboration
Jan 6, 202110 min
Click here to see our Just Missed and Honorable Mention names
as well as our criteria for the creation of these rankings
Until a month ago, Ryan would not have made this list.
The Aussie distance runner has been a solid addition to the Florida State Seminoles since transferring from Villanova. Prior to this year, the highlight of Ryan's college career was her finishing 6th at the 2019 ACC Cross Country Championships. Due to the abbreviated 2020 seasons, she only ran once during indoor track, posting a modest 3k time of 9:51.
Then December happened.
In the span of approximately three weeks, Ryan completely reset expectations. While home in Australia, Ryan was able to race at a handful of local meets due to an improved COVID situation and she capitalized on those opportunities. In her three races, the Florida State junior ran 8:54 (3k), 15:49 (5k) and 32:58 (10k).
For context, all of those races were held outdoors, so the conversion might not be 1:1 with what you expect to see on an indoor track. Regardless, those marks definitely inserted her into the contender conversation. Her 5k and 10k times would have ranked her at NCAA #23 and NCAA #13 on the 2019 outdoor performance lists.
The big “if” here is whether those times will carry over to her indoor season here in the States. It is a bit early to be too bullish on Ryan’s chances, but we should have a better idea of where she stands when racing begins.
Air Force senior Maria Mettler will be one to keep an eye on this winter following her stellar 10k at the Sound Running Track Meet back in December.
In only her first track 10k, Mettler ran a jaw-dropping time of 32:09, the fastest time by any collegiate at the meet. Based on that performance, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Mettler improve upon her already-promising 15:49 5k PR that she ran during the 2020 indoor season.
Mettler popped onto the national contender scene following her 36th place finish at the 2019 NCAA XC Championships. Her ensuing indoor track season produced that aforementioned 5k PR as well as an altitude-converted 9:12 (3k). That 15:49 (5k) was good enough for an NCAA #12 mark which qualified her for the indoor national meet. She was also ranked at NCAA #21 in the 3000 meters.
It was a shame that we didn’t get to see Mettler compete at NCAA’s last winter as she could have been a sneaky-good All-American candidate, even in a very deep and very top-heavy field.
Mettler is on absolute fire right now. Few women in the NCAA have the same kind of momentum that she currently does and we expect that she will carry that momentum into this season.
Admittedly, she will have tough competition in the 5000 meters when toeing the line against Katie Izzo, Fiona O’Keeffe and a handful of others. However, her newfound strength will be a big advantage for her moving forward.
It is a bit challenging to say what Smart’s indoor season might look like this winter when you consider how she left things in 2020. After a phenomenal freshman cross country season where she placed 12th at the NCAA Championships, the Washington freshman seemed poised for a big winter.
In a way, that happened...sort of.
Smart ended the year ranked at NCAA #13 in the 3000 meters with a mark of 9:06. That is a very strong time for a young runner and it allowed her to qualify for the indoor national meet. However, the odd aspect of Smart’s indoor season was that she only ran three times, all of which were in the 3000 meters.
Considering the success that she had on the grass, it seemed only logical that Smart would take a swing at an event like the 5000 meters, but alas, she did not. Even if Washington was looking to avoid longer events until later in her career, jumping into a mile seemed like the next logical move.
To be truly confident in Smart this season, it would be helpful to see her run in more meets and in different events. The Washington ace has proven that she is a top runner in the NCAA, but that is largely on the grounds of cross country.
A big indoor season will cement her status as a top-ranked talent for the next couple of years.
One of the most dominant distance runners in the BIG East for the past few years is looking to go out in style in her final few seasons with the Providence Friars. The redshirt senior boasts strong personal bests of 9:08 (3k) and 15:40 (5k) -- two marks that came during the 2020 indoor track season.
However, the most impressive aspect of Wheeler's 5k personal best was that she soloed that time in the second 5k heat at the Boston University Season Opener back in the December of 2019. She beat the next-best runner (Hannah Miller) by a whopping 26 seconds.
Wheeler was on fire last year and was going into the NCAA Championships with a pair of BIG East titles under her belt. Between her consistency, fast times, ability to win and extensive experience, the Providence runner could be a dangerous weapon in 2021 if she is able to carry over her success from last year.
There is a good chance that you didn’t know that Katy-Ann McDonald is the second fastest returner in the women's 800 meters for this winter. The LSU junior ran a time of 2:04.59 last year which put her at NCAA #9 on the performance list.
The only concern that we have with McDonald is consistency. Yes, she has run 2:04, but only once. She has also run 2:05 twice, but in separate years. Outside of those three races, she has never broken 2:06, indoors or outdoors. In fact, all of her sub-2:06 marks have come only during indoors.
If McDonald can make a jump into the 2:03 range and capitalize on her opportunities at the NCAA Championships, then she should be a key contender in a women's 800 meter field that is wide-open this year.
Cross country isn't a great indicator of fitness when it comes to middle distance prowess, but McDonald ran incredibly well this past fall. Will that noticeable jump in fitness on the grass follow her to the track? If so, then she could be a problem for her fellow competitors in 2021.
One of the biggest transfer names from this past summer, Hannah Steelman will be looking to sustain all of the success that she had with the Wofford Terriers prior to transferring to NC State.
The senior had a strong career at Wofford which peaked in 2019. Steelman kicked off the year with an 8th place run in the 3000 meters at the NCAA Indoor Championships and later went on to finish 3rd in the steeplechase and 8th in the 5k at the NCAA Outdoor Championships, earning a total of three All-American finishes in two seasons.
Steelman carried that momentum into the fall of 2019 where she would finish 23rd, her best finish ever, at the NCAA Cross Country Championships. Prior to the COVID cancellations, Steelman was set to compete in the 3k at the 2020 NCAA Indoor Championships.
It seems like Steelman has already acclimated to her new situation in Raleigh fairly well after throwing down some strong results this past fall. The 3rd place finisher from the most recent ACC XC Championships is one of the most reliable championship runners in the NCAA and that's a big reason why we gave her this ranking.
Reasonably, Steelman looks like someone who could finish anywhere from 4th to 10th place in the 3000 meters with her current marks. If she makes the jump towards breaking 9:00, then that finishing range becomes a bit larger.
At last year's Boston University Last Chance Qualifier, Grace Forbes turned heads when she ran a jaw-dropping 17-second personal best of 8:56 in the 3000 meters. She finished only 0.21 seconds behind Oregon alum and Nike professional Jessica Hull, a former NCAA 3k champion.
That result catapulted Forbes to the NCAA #8 mark in the 3000 meters, settling just behind a group of experienced women who were previous All-Americans either on the track or grass.
Forbes is coming off of a dominating win at the 2020 Conference USA XC Championships and will look to pick up where she left off last winter. However, we still need to see her replicate that incredible breakout race.
The Rice sophomore is an excellent distance talent, but can she replicate that miraculous breakout race that we saw from her last year? Can she show any kind of consistency when it comes to racing at that elite level? If so, then Forbes will surely get a boost in our rankings.
The last time Hurta ran on the track was June 1st, 2019. The last time she competed for Colorado was on November 23rd, 2019.
So it’s fair to wonder...what should we expect from her this winter?
Make no mistake, Sage Hurta is one of the best runners in the NCAA and if she shows up healthy and at the peak of her fitness this winter, then she is an immediate contender for a national title.
In her last track races before injury, Hurta was setting personal bests left and right. She ran 15:54 for 5k at the Husky Classic (unattached) and went on to run 4:09 for 1500 meters and 2:00.99 for 800 meters during the outdoor track season (also unattached). Her mark in the 800 meters would have been the fastest in the NCAA by a heavy margin. She is also a multiple-time All-American in both track and cross country.
With almost 14 months between now and her last race, a lot could have changed for Hurta. There have been plenty of runners (think Brenna Peloquin) who have broken onto the scene only to get injured and disappear.
However, Colorado has a system that seems to handle extended absences incredibly well. Dani Jones struggled with injury in 2018 and was able to come out a national champion on the track. Joe Klecker and John Dressel both had some periods of injury before finishing in the top-10 at the NCAA Cross Country Championships.
All Hurta needs is one race back. If she comes out and runs a solid mark, then she immediately vaults into the title conversation. Don't sleep on this Buffalo ace.
A true freshman and stud middle distance runner, Athing Mu will take to the NCAA to see how her prep career translates against the nation’s best collegiates. Mu joins a historic middle distance at Texas A&M as recent Aggies Sammy Watson and Jazmine Fray were All-Americans and national champions.
Mu already has a USATF Indoor Championship and American women’s record in the 600 meters, but can she earn her first NCAA title right off the bat?
Based on her personal bests, Mu is already near the top of the NCAA. Her 2019 prep year was remarkable as she ran 51.98 in the 400 meters, 1:23 in the 600 meters and 2:01 in the 800 meters. She has also run 4:33 for 1500 meters. We see her focusing more on the 800 given her speed, recent dominance and Texas A&M's extensive history of success in that event.
Mu will have to compete against women who have experience on the NCAA stage, but seeing that this rookie has already bumped elbows with professionals at the US Championships, both indoors and outdoors, her ceiling is incredibly high.
Texas A&M was a great choice for Mu and the coaching staff knows what it takes to produce the best of the best.
For three years, Ellsworth-Barnes has been improving slowly, but steadily. She went from never qualifying for a national meet, to finishing runner-up in the DMR (2019), to qualifying individually for the outdoor national meet in 2019 to earning a “would be” national qualifying spot for last year’s indoor national meet (which was ultimately cancelled).
Is this the year where everything comes to together for the BYU veteran?
The senior is the third-fastest returner in the women's 800 meters this indoor season after clocking 2:04.79 last winter. However, Ellsworth-Barnes has run faster than both of the two returners who are listed ahead of her when you include outdoor performances, having run 2:02.49 in 2019.
The one knock on Ellsworth-Barnes that also applies to the two 800 meter returners ahead of her is that she has minimal experience in championship races. She has only run in one 800 meter race at the NCAA Championships (2019 outdoors) where she was eliminated in the prelim rounds.
A race like the 800 meters relies heavily on tactics, particularly indoors, and it will be a skill that the BYU runner must hone this season to be competitive for the national title come March.
By all accounts, Bethany Hasz is someone who is currently “under the radar”. That’s not to say that she should be (because she shouldn’t), but for as good of a runner as she is, she rarely receives the name recognition of others.
Here’s a “blind resume” comparison of two runners' personal bests.
Runner A) 4:38 mile / 9:06 for 3k / 15:27 for 5k (unattached)
Runner B) 4:38 mile / 9:11 for 3k / 15:25 for 5k
Pretty similar, no?
Runner A is Elly Henes of NC State.
Runner B is Bethany Hasz.
Now, in fairness to Henes, she has been on a tear as of late, has been exceptional in cross country, has been a national qualifier in (what seems like) every season of competition and boasts some underrated range. It's understandable why she may have more name recognition.
Even so, when you look at their best times, it's relatively clear that Hasz matches up fairly well with one of the NCAA's top distance runners.
Hasz was one of the best talents in the 5000 meters last winter. She ran a blistering 15:25 at the BU Season Opener which put her at NCAA #5 on the performance list for 2020. Truthfully, her lack of national meet experience is a little concerning when it comes to potential race tactics, but she brings a wealth of experience in a variety of events from bigger meets such as the BIG 10 Championships.
When you look at the numbers, Hasz is in the upper-tier of distance talents. She ran personal bests in three events last winter (mile, 3k, 5k) and earned her first trip to the NCAA Championships (on the track). Her marks are already among the elite of the NCAA, but another jump this winter could push her into the title contender conversation.
The indoor oval has been kind to Chelangat. Last winter was when we got to see the current Alabama star break into the NCAA contender category. After running times of 15:37 (5k) and 9:16 (3k), it was clear that Chelangat was the real deal.
And if you didn't already think that, then her dominant victory at the top-heavy SEC Cross Country Championships this past fall likely made you reconsider.
The only uncertainty that we have with Chelangat is her race tactics. She finished 2nd behind Katie Izzo in the 5000 meters at the SEC Indoor Championships last winter as well as 4th in the 3000 meters at the same meet.
Now, in fairness, one SEC meet is not a big sample size, but our larger point is that we don't have a lot of data as to how she races in championship meets. However, outside of that, few athletes are primed for more success this winter than Chelangat.