TSR Collaboration
Jan 7, 202112 min
Updated: Jan 8, 2021
Click here to see our Just Missed and Honorable Mention names
as well as our criteria for the creation of these rankings
One of the NCAA's top newcomers last year was Alex Masai. After going undefeated during the 2019 cross country season (until the NCAA Championships) and then running the nation's third-fastest time in the 5000 meters during indoors, Masai was a name that began to generate some buzz last year.
Last season, Masai ran 13:28 (5k) and 7:53 (3k) and was primed to compete in his first national meet on the indoor oval before COVID-19 struck.
Between his performances on the grass and in the longer distances during indoors, we know that Alex Masai is an incredibly strong runner who is willing to establish aggressive paces and lead strong fields with top-ranked talent.
However, it's also fair to point out that Masai lacks championship racing experience and tactical prowess. Alex Masai has never raced at the NCAA Championships on the track before and has only run at one outdoor regional meet where he finished 22nd overall in the 10k (2019).
For a guy who is so gifted aerobically, it’s hard to really know how he can perform in a championship setting without having seen him do it. When it comes to the indoor national meet, both the 3k and 5k are often tactical as many athletes rely on their finishing speed to get them across the line.
If Alex Masai can navigate a championship field and can properly utilize his incredible stamina-based strength in a tactical race, then he would be the track equivalent of Ben Simmons developing a jump shot. He would be boarderline untouchable.
On paper, Cooper Williams is the easy pick to win the men's 800 meter national title in March. However, just because the national field isn't super top-heavy doesn't mean it's not deep.
The Indiana standout has run 1:46.06 for 800 meters (1:47.24 indoors) and is the top returner in the country for the 800 meters. Williams is a two-time All-American, but barring injury or a serious off-race, he would have very likely picked up two more All-American honors if last year's indoor and outdoor national meets weren't cancelled.
Of all the runners in the country, this Indiana veteran is one of the safest bets to pick up an All-American finish this indoor season and has a plethora of championship experience that he can lean on. Generally, anybody who has run 1:46 has a shot to win a national title.
The one concern with Williams, and what has kept us from ranking him any higher, is that he sometimes struggles to perform in tactical settings, specifically on the indoor track.
Last year, he finished 5th in the 800 meters at Meyo Invitational and then faltered at the BIG 10 Championships where he finished 4th. In fact, just one year prior to that, Williams also lost the 2019 BIG 10 Indoor 800 meter title to Domenic Perretta (TSR #17). Tactics are everything, especially when running rounds in a championship meet. Williams’ best shot at a national title will be to control the race at NCAA’s, both in the prelims and the finals.
However, regardless of whether or not he ends up winning the national title, Williams is probably the best overall 800 meter runner in the nation right now and a sure lock to be an All-American once again.
Ever since he began his career at Ole Miss, Waleed Suliman has been a national-caliber talent. As a freshman, he was part of the DMR team that finished 10th at the NCAA Indoor Championships and he has not missed qualifying for an indoor national meet since then.
Suliman has run 1:47.29 for 800 meters (1:48.94 indoors) and 3:56 in the mile, making him a major contender in either or both events. He has also run 7:54 for 3000 meters, giving him a realistic shot at qualifying in that event if he can drop a few seconds off of his time. Based on his cross country performances this fall, pursuing the 3k could be a legitimate option for Suliman.
As shown by his times, Waleed Suliman is an incredibly versatile and dynamic runner. He could potentially qualify for the NCAA Championships in three individual events, not including the DMR.
However, Suliman has never put together an All-American finish on the track, indoors or outdoors (although he is a two-time All-American in cross country). He came painfully close in the mile in 2019 when he finished 9th and he of course did not get the opportunity to compete in the 2020 NCAA Indoor Championships due to COVID-19.
Waleed Suliman has everything that you could want in a top middle distance talent. If he can push aside his past postseason woes then he will be an incredibly strong contender in whichever event(s) he chooses to pursue this season.
Few athletes in the NCAA had a breakout 2020 like this Oregon sophomore. After a solid and impressive freshmen campaign that saw Hocker finish 69th at the 2019 NCAA XC Championships, the Oregon youngster went on to run 3:58 (mile) and 7:57 (3k) during the following indoor track season. That, however, was just the precursor to a huge breakout year.
Hocker was rumored to have run 7:45 in the 3000 meters at an Oregon time trial, finishing behind only Cooper Teare. At the Sound Running Track Meet this past December, he validated that time with an incredible 13:32 (5k), barely losing to Olympic champion Matt Centrowitz.
Because the 2020 NCAA Indoor Championships were cancelled, Hocker does not have any NCAA championship experience on the track, but his recent rise is awfully impressive and forces us to put him amongst some of the best in the nation.
Now, admittedly, we still need to see how he translate those incredible times to the indoor oval. Running 7:45 (3k) and 13:32 (5k) certainly grabs our attention, but they were times that were run on an outdoor track. Can he run anything close to those times this winter?
Overall, Hocker is rapidly trending in the right direction and few distance runners in the NCAA have a brighter future than this Oregon sophomore.
The cancellation of the 2020 indoor track season could not have come at a worse time for the Spartan distance star. Beadlescomb was undefeated during the 2020 indoor season, winning races in the mile, 3000 meters and 5000 meters. He ran personal bests in the 3k (8:01) and the 5k (13:31) and won the BIG 10 title in the 5000 meters.
Going into the National Championships, he was the fifth seed in the 5k and primed for a top All-American finish. He had already beaten the likes of Ben Veatch, Kyle Mau and Peter Seufer throughout last season, likely giving him a ton of confidence heading into the national meet.
Beadlescomb is a bit more one-dimensional than some of the other runners who are ranked above him on this list, but he will still be a major threat in the 5k this year. While a top-three finish at the NCAA Championships may be a bit aggressive, he is still a relatively safe bet to score at least four points for Michigan State.
How many chances he will get to run on the indoor track this winter is not known as the Spartans get their first chance at running cross country this winter. Still, Beadlescomb should not need many opportunities to throw down a national qualifying mark.
He doesn't have the flashiest resume, but he consistently posts fast times and knows how to win which sets him up well during the next few chaotic months of competition.
We have not seen the South African distance talent on the track for a while now, but he was coming off of the best indoor track season of his career back in March. Last winter, Kusche ran personal bests in the mile (3:57) and 3k (7:50) and then finished 3rd in each of those events at the BIG 10 Indoor Track Championships.
He does not have a ton of experience at the national level, but he has been consistently improving his times over the last few years and, like a few others behind him on this list, he is a threat in multiple events.
While it is hard to see him as a top contender in the mile or 3k, he could force his way into that conversation if he continues his trajectory of improvement. Given his 800 meter personal best of 1:49, he certainly has enough speed to be a threat in the latter portions of a tactical race.
Overall, Kusche is one of the best all-around distance runners that the NCAA has to offer.
As the top returner from last year’s NCAA Cross Country Championships, it is incredible that we have Mantz listed at TSR #7, but that is more of an indication of the talent in the NCAA this year.
The BYU runner has steadily improved his position at the NCAA Championships over the last few years. In the winter of 2019, he was 7th and 10th in the 3k and 5k (respectively) at the NCAA Indoor Championships. In the spring of 2019, he finished 7th and 4th in the 5k and 10k (respectively) at the NCAA Outdoor Championships. In his most recent NCAA appearance, he finished 3rd at Terre Haute.
Although he's a runner who specializes more in the longer distances, Mantz has shown that he is capable of competing at a high level in the 3k and 5k during indoors. While he is not the immediate title favorite in either event, the BYU runner is still safe bet to score plenty of points in both races (assuming he qualifies).
It is unclear how much BYU will pursue indoor races this winter and it's important to note that Mantz is coming back from an injury which kept him from running during the latter portion of October and most of November (according to his Strava page).
Even so, if Mantz is given the opportunity, then we are confident that he will run some top-level times and reemerge as a true threat on the indoor oval.
Perhaps a bit of a forgotten man in Eugene with the recent exploits of his teammates Cooper Teare and Cole Hocker, the Australian was looking very strong toward the end of last indoor season. Hunter finished his 2020 indoor track season with a 3:55 mile personal best in Boston and helped the Ducks run the NCAA record in the DMR at the Razorback Invitational by splitting 1:48 on the 800 leg.
Although there are a plethora of challengers to Yared Nuguse in the mile, Hunter stands out as the best of the contenders. The Duck veteran recently ran a personal best in the 5000 meters at the Sound Running Track Meet finishing with a time of 13:57, so he is clearly in great shape right now. He also has the necessary foot-speed needed to challenge Nuguse in a tactical race, as proven by his 1:48 split in the DMR and his personal best of 2:22 in the 1000 meters.
Hunter was 8th in the mile at 2019 NCAA Championships and likely would have finished higher than that during last year's national meet. It seems a bit crazy that we're ranking a 3:55 miler at "only" TSR #6, but if he has enough opportunities this winter, then there is a good chance that Hunter will get a boost in our rankings.
We have not seen Kemboi on the track for a quite some time, but when we look back at 2019, one could argue that he was the third-best distance runner in the NCAA.
At the 2019 Millrose Games, he finished behind only Morgan McDonald and Grant Fisher in the 3000 meters as he ran an incredible time of 7:44. That same season, he ran 3:59 in the mile and 13:33 in the 5k. However, he walked away from the national meet that year with only a 6th place All-American finish.
Now at Arkansas, Kemboi should have ample opportunities to run just as fast. With the beautifully renovated Randal Tyson Track Center on campus, the Razorbacks will be able to race as frequently as they wish. After winning the SEC title in the fall, this is also an Arkansas team that will not need to compete much on the grass this winter.
While Kemboi might not have had his best season this past fall, he comes in with one of the most impressive resumes in the country. It's one thing to be exceptionally fast in a certain race, but to be as fast Kemboi has been in the mile, 3000 and 5000 says a lot about his talent.
The real question now if is he can convert his incredible fitness into a top finish at the NCAA Championships, but I suppose we'll have to wait until March for that to happen.
Back in December, Ben wrote about Kiptoo's recent rise to the top of the NCAA. Now, the Iowa State star will have another chance to further cement his place amongst the nation's most elite distance talents this winter. While he might be better suited for the grass and a longer distance like the 10k, he should still be a top contender in the 3000 meters and 5000 meters.
Last year at Colby CC, Kiptoo went toe-to-toe with George Kusche in the 3000 meters. Although Kiptoo finished a close 2nd to Kusche in that race, he still ran an eyebrow-raising time of 7:51 which complemented his personal bests of 4:04 (mile) and 13:43 (5k).
Not only that, but Kiptoo just ran a nearly-unbelievable 10k PR of 27:37 this past December, a time which suggests that he can run somewhere along the lines of 13:30 for 5000 meters (at the very least). In fact, the Jack Daniels conversion chart equates that performance to a time of 13:15, theoretically putting Kiptoo squarely into the 5k national title conversation.
Whether Kiptoo has the necessary tactics and speed to win an NCAA title is still unclear. However, we can't deny that he has other-worldly fitness and will be a major player in the collegiate distance running world for the next few seasons.
Like the two names listed ahead of him, Teare was on fire before the pandemic interrupted his racing plans last winter. The Oregon superstar had run 7:46 (3k) and 3:55 (mile) in his last two indoor races after he had already anchored Oregon’s DMR to an NCAA record time. He was one of the multiple title favorites in the men's 3000 meters last winter.
While we did not see Teare on the grass at all this past fall, he did run a 7:44 (3k) in an Oregon time trial before he finished one second behind Grijalva in the 5000 meters at the Sound Running Track Meet. His time of 13:17 shows that he will a top contender in both the 5k and 3k this winter if the Ducks choose to seriously pursue any indoor meets this winter.
Between his potent combination of speed and endurance, it feels like a crime to rank Teare at TSR #3 spot in our rankings. Of course, you could reorder this top three in any way that you would like and you wouldn't be wrong.
The Notre Dame star from South Bend, Indiana arguably has the best range of any distance runner in the country and enters the year as the hands-down favorite in the mile this winter.
Nuguse's performances last winter, while limited, were flat-out spectacular. Running 7:46 (3k) proved that Nuguse will also be a top title favorite in the 3000 meters if he decides to run the event this year. Easily winning the ACC Championships in the mile last winter in a solo time of 3:55, followed by a dominant ACC cross country title this past fall, tell us that Nuguse can win almost any race in any circumstance.
This is all without mentioning his DMR-winning anchor legs that he has run over the last few years.
With arguably the best kick in the NCAA and spectacular range, Nuguse has the most point-scoring potential of anyone in the country (assuming he competes at all during the indoor season). He will be the favorite to win the mile this winter and will make the Irish the favorite in the DMR if he runs on the anchor leg. Plus, he will be a top contender for the 3000 meters even if he runs the mile a few hours before.
There is a legitimate argument for listing Nuguse at the top spot in our rankings, but we're simply splitting hairs at this point. We don't even know if Notre Dame will toe the line for any indoor track races this winter.
That, however, doesn't make Nuguse any less talented.
No one in the NCAA has established themselves as a superstar more than Grijalva has in the last few months. First, he took down Conner Mantz and Casey Clinger in his only cross country race of the year with a devastating kick at the Oklahoma State Invitational. He then ran 7:42 in the 3000 meters to beat Drew Hunter before finally beating both Hunter and Cooper Teare in the 5k at the Sound Running Track Meet with a spectacular time of 13:16.
If you put all of those results together, then it may be fair to suggest that the Lumberjack star is the most fit distance runner in the NCAA right now.
However, his success didn't just come over the last few months. During the 2020 indoor track season, Grijalva ran jaw-dropping times of 3:58.69 (converted mile), 7:43 (3k) and 13:29 (5k). Even without his recent performances, one could argue that those times were still worthy of a top ranking.
With Northern Arizona needing to compete on the grass in the winter in order to qualify for the winter NCAA XC Championships, it will be interesting to see how many opportunities Grijalva will have to race on the indoor oval.
Still, as long as he qualifies for the NCAA Championships, he will be the runner to beat.